The Cavaliers were projected to have a great year. It was year four in Tony Bennett’s rebuilding project and he had two of the best seniors in the ACC in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell. Yet, they struggled to find a quality non-conference win, losing to VCU, Wisconsin and Green Bay. Then right before entering league play, the Cavaliers were spanked by Tennessee by 35 points. They were 9-4 with zero wins against future tournament-worthy teams.
However, come conference time, this team started to find its identity. The defense was there, but on offensive, they were proving to be more than just a two-man team of Harris and Mitchell. Malcolm Brogdon was becoming a star in the making, leading the team in scoring, while London Perrantes quietly filled in the projected hole at point guard.
Playing as one of the most efficient teams in the nation, the Cavaliers would roll through the ACC. The only two loses coming from a last-second Rasheed Sulaimon three-pointer in Durham and a little hiccup against Maryland in the meaningless final game of the year. The highlight came on March 1, when Virginia dominated Syracuse in the second half, turning a one-point halftime lead into a 19-point ‘thanks for coming, don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out’ victory.
Of course, despite the regular season championship and 16-2 conference record, there were still plenty of folks questioning their run. The fact was, Virginia caught a break with the schedule, having to face the rest of the top half of the league just once (Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh). However, those doubts were put away when the Cavaliers won the ACC tournament, including a solid victory over Duke, one of the two teams they lost to in conference play.
PROJECTED STARTING LINE:
PG – London Perrantes, 6-2 189 Fr
SG – Malcolm Brogdon, 6-5 217 So
SF – Joe Harris, 6-6 225 Sr
PF – Akil Mitchell, 6-8 235 Sr
C – Mike Tobey, 6-11 253 So
KEY RESERVES:
Justin Anderson, 6-6 227 So
Anthony Gill, 6-8 230 So
Darion Atkins, 6-8 324 Jr
Evan Nolte, 6-8 227 So
The key to Virginia’s success has always been defense, that’s been the one constant since Tony Bennett arrived. Yes, the scheme is a big part of it, but the fact is, the coaching staff has had four years of recruiting to put the right guys into place to fit the scheme properly. According to Ken Pom, they are the third most efficient defensive team in the land and can shut down opponents a variety of ways. In fact, both Akil Mitchell and Justin Anderson could have been considered for defensive player of the year in the ACC.
If an opponent works the ball down low, then the Cavaliers will swarm the ball like it’s candy at a fat camp. This forces big men to have to make quick decisions (not usually their specialties), because if they don’t, they will get trapped down low. This is why Virginia is 9th in 2p% on defense. However, they also run at shooters, refusing to give up open looks. Again, the trick to beating them is react quickly when they attack, because there are quick openings. The problem is, most teams are so flustered and too inpatient to realize this and the Cavaliers are so good at rotating over.
On offense, patience is the only word that can be used. Virginia is a team that will use up the shot clock like no other. They never get rattled if the clock is winding down and freshmen point guard London Perrantes is as cool as a cucumber. Individually none of these guys are going to blow anyone away with their athletic abilities. They’re not winning any jumping contests or 40-yard sprints. However, as a team, they move without the ball better than anyone in the ACC, they’re good finding holes, excellent at drawing contact, as well as rebounding their own miss shots.
POTENTIAL TOURNAMENT MATCH UPS:
Of course first up, they have to deal with Coastal Carolina. Cliff Ellis is a solid coach and the team led by point guard Josh Cameron, but the Chanticleers struggle to put up points and will be lucky to score 40 against Virginia.
Most will pick Memphis to be in the round of 32, but don’t sleep on George Washington. They finished in third place in a solid Atlantic 10 and like the Cavaliers, can play lock down defense.
Yet, it’s the sweet 16 where everyone has Virginia falling. I get it. Michigan State is the former #1 ranked team in the nation that really started struggling to keep bodies on the court and ended up dropping five of seven games. However, everyone is back and everyone is at or near 100%. The fact is, the Spartans are going to be favorite over just about everyone in this tournament.
Now if Virginia can get by MSU, the only real threat on the other side of the bracket that I see are the Cyclones of Iowa State. They are led by a solid trio of DeAndre Kane, Georges Niang and Melvin Ejim. They’re also coached by one of the better coaches out there in Fred Hoiberg. This is a team that is experienced and battle tested and would be a popular final four pick if it wasn’t for Michigan State.
OUTLOOK:
I’ll be honest, I can’t recall the last time a 1-seed got so little love. Not only can I not find any “expert” who has the Cavaliers advancing to the Final Four, I can’t find one who has them getting past the Sweet 16. Yes, a lot of that has to do with a healthy Michigan State team sitting there as the 4-seed, but that’s sort of how it’s been for Virginia all year long…they are not talented enough, they’ve gotten lucky, Virginia is for lovers, not basketball.
Trust me, I want to dispute the haters…I really do. The problem is, I’m one of those people who has a hard time seeing Virginia getting past the Sweet 16. Looking over the teams in the East, I’d argue that Virginia is the third best team in the region behind Michigan State (who just beat two #2 seeds to win Big 10 tournament title) and Iowa State (who has won four straight, all against tournament teams).
WHY THEY’LL FALL SHORT OF THE FINAL FOUR
The Virginia Cavaliers came out of nowhere this year and owned the ACC. Who does this remind you of? Last year’s Miami Hurricanes, that’s who. That team had a ton of redshirt seniors, yet when the pressure was on, they got rattled and never had a shot against Marquette in the sweet 16. They played like it was their first time there, because it was their first time there for all those players. The same is going to be true of these Cavaliers. They thought the pressure was on them to win the ACC Tournament, just wait until it’s a win or go home situation. Experience usually matters in the tournament and Virginia has none.
WHY THEY’LL ADVANCE TO THE FINAL FOUR
This team is a Ken Pom wet dream. They are efficient, efficient, efficient. I can claim all I want that they will get rattled when the pressure is really on, but guess what, this team has not gotten rattled in a long time. There are no McDonald’s All-Americans, there are no egos, this is a team that always seems to make the right play at the right time, whether it’s a basket, a rebound, a steal or a block…they simple make winning plays; the kind of plays that advance you to the Final Four.
MY WORTHLESS PREDICTION:
Sadly, I have Virginia falling to Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Sorry.
