Anyone who follows college basketball and the NCAA Tournament knows the drama associated with each game and the propensity for upsets. The toughest part is always figuring which major upsets can happen. We all know that a 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed, and that very few 15 seeds have conquered a 2 seed. So what are we to expect in the “second” round games of the 1 through 4 seeds? Who is most likely to get upset, and what games should you pass up in favor of others at the same time?
From most likely to least likely
1 Seeds
Villanova vs. Lafayette
Many analysts have the Wildcats losing in the second round, so this is not a surprising pick. However, this pick is about more than believing the Big East is overrated (which I do, to an extent). The Leopards belong to a relatively competitive conference and are located in Pennsylvania, like ‘Nova. Lafayette also has three seniors among their top four scorers, which is one of the most important components of any Cinderella teams. While I do not expect an upset, I would not be surprised to see this game hover around 8 to 10 points before the Wildcats seal it late.
Wisconsin vs Coastal Carolina
This one should not be close, but is likely to be the next best game among the 1 seeds in this round. Coastal has tournament experience and also play in a competitive conference, but will be overmatched by the Badgers. The Chanticleers did win 24 games and have strong guard play, but Wisconsin is on a roll and typically handles overmatched teams with ease. However, Coastal could keep this game in the teens by the final whistle.
Kentucky vs Manhattan/Hampton
Kentucky is the best team in the tournament, but they are a young team and could potentially take their foot off the gas in such a lopsided matchup. Manhattan struggled in the nonconference slate, but had a good run through the MAAC, and could at least give the Wildcats some run if they were to defeat Hampton. Overall, expect Kentucky to win by 25-30 points.
Duke vs North Florida/Robert Morris
Another game where I do not expect the result to be close, and an experienced Duke team should run rampant. These are the types of games that the Devils usually step on the gas early and continue to run their system. Neither team seems the type to cause havoc in March, even if Robert Morris did defeat Kentucky in the NIT several years ago.
2 Seeds
Kansas vs New Mexico St
Kansas has played the toughest schedule in the country and is well-prepared to handle a team like New Mexico St, but the Aggies have experience in this tournament, arguably as much as Kansas’ current roster. Their conference is not as tough as it used to be, but in terms of size and experience, the Aggies match up about as well with a 2 seed as a 15 can. The Jayhawks are a little young and theoretically should not have much issue with the 15 seed, but could struggle as late as the second half.
Gonzaga vs North Dakota St
Gonzaga is always on major upset alert due to their status as a mid-major, but almost two decades of success has taught me otherwise. This is as good of a team as the Bulldogs have ever fielded and they appear well-equipped to handle a team of the caliber of NDSU. The Bison are a good team and have some great shooters, but may struggle to contain the bigs of the Zags.
Arizona vs Texas Southern
This one is a bit of a wildcard, as Texas Southern has actually beaten a Power 5 tournament team in Michigan St earlier this year. While Arizona is much better than the Spartans (especially at that point in the season), the Tigers have at least proven a capability to defeat a top team. This one will probably end in a 20-25 point gap, but could be interesting for a stretch.
Virginia vs Belmont
Belmont is another low seed that has plenty of past tournament experience, but Virginia is a resilient team under Tony Bennett. While Justin Anderson has been struggling to recover from injury, players like Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes should handle the perimeter threats of Belmont relatively well. While the score may be closer than the others, I have a feeling that it will not be as close of a game throughout as the others.
3 Seeds
Notre Dame vs Northeastern
These games obviously get tougher as we progress, and all four appear as if they will be exciting deep into the game. Notre Dame comes in hot, winning games against Miami, Duke, and North Carolina to earn a 3 seed and win the ACC Championship. Northeastern won their conference tournament of the strong Colonial Athletic Association and will bring a stern test to the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame could be shocked in the first round or make it to the Final Four. I expect an ND win, but this could be a nail-biter.
Oklahoma vs Albany
Oklahoma had a great season, but something still seems vulnerable about this team. Buddy Hield is a star, and the Sooners have a legitimate supporting cast, but they do not have a the feel of a top 12 team. That said, they have a distinct size advantage over the Great Danes (best mascot name in the tournament?) and should prevail. Albany did almost pull off an upset as a 16 seed just a few years ago.
Baylor vs Georgia St
Baylor is a bit like Oklahoma, but perhaps a little more talented and on a similar roll of late. A stronger-than-expected season led to a 3 seed and an intriguing matchup with Georgia State, who features two high-profile transfers and an NBA prospect. Ryan Harrow, Kevin Ware, and RJ Hunter form a very dangerous perimeter and should Baylor issues. However, Harrow has been battling injuries and the Panthers only scored 38 points in their conference championship game.
Iowa St vs UAB
UAB might be the most dangerous team on the 14 line, but going against the Big 12 champions are a tough draw. The Blazers won the Conference USA Tournament, which is a decent feat considering there is still some talent in that conference, and could be a sneaky major upset pick. The Cyclones are prone to playing close games against all sorts of competition, but come in on a roll and look to be a solid pick late into the tournament.
4 Seeds
Georgetown vs Eastern Washington
This has been the most popular choice among many for a “major” upset in early bracket analysis, and for good reason. Eastern is a dangerous mid-major and Georgetown was a bit of a stretch for a four seed. While the Hoyas haven’t lost to a team outside of the RPI top 50, EWU is playing extremely well and won at Indiana and played Washington close earlier in the season.
Maryland vs Valparaiso
The Terrapins were probably not pleased with falling to a 4 seed, and for good reason. Valparaiso will be a tough out, as the Crusaders won the Horizon League, going 13-3 and winning their conference tournament. However, Valpo only played against one Power 5 team (Missouri) and lost handily. They are deadly from beyond the arc, but face a very tough Maryland perimeter attack in Melo Trimble and Dez Wells. Another note, and one that you will probably hear referenced 100 times during the game, the Crusaders are coached by noted March Madness hero Bryce Drew.
Louisville vs UC Irvine
The Cardinals have struggled down the stretch since senior guard Chris Jones was kicked off the team. While they should still have the firepower to overcome the Anteaters, the Big West team does not look likely to lay down without a fight. UCI has the size that most mid-majors lack, particularly in 7’6” Mamadou N’Diaye. If Montrezl Harrell can keep him out of the paint and the guards can hit outside shots (a problem as of late), the Cardinals will cruise to a double digit victory.
North Carolina vs Harvard
The Tar Heels have played pretty well down the stretch, while Harvard finished an up-and-down season by beating Yale in a one game playoff to earn their spot in The Big Dance. The Crimson have a significant amount of talent to give the Heels a game, but just don’t seem to come in playing as well as the other 13 seeds. The size of North Carolina will likely be too much for UNC, and it could be a game that stays in the teens throughout.
