In case you were confused, we are not playing an exhibition against the Golden State Warriors tomorrow night. We’re also not playing the Directional California that I had assumed we scheduled when I first saw our slate before the season. The truth is somewhere in between — it’s not a night off by any stretch, but it’s a game we should win.
There really haven’t been any games where we could let up and put our feet up since Charleston. I’d say I’m worried, but there was a 10-day break without games for exams, another eight days between Cal and Oakland, so rest shouldn’t be an issue. Also, I think six teams ranked between seven and 79 via KenPom (four at home, one on the road, one at a neutral site) approximate the variety of conference play a little better than a steady diet of Liberty and Morgan State. We should be firing on all cylinders (or however many cylinders were firing against Cal, anyway) by the time Notre Dame arrives on Saturday.
Oakland became overnight celebrities by taking a top-10 Michigan State team to overtime the same night as the Cal game (many of you may have seen it). The Grizzlies would eventually lose, but they gave the world a show. They didn’t shoot well — they shot badly, actually — but they pushed the tempo faster than the Spartans wanted (82 possessions in 45 minutes) and attacked the rim relentlessly, drawing fouls (they took 48 free throws, making 39) and following their shots (they grabbed 31% of their misses). That’s their game: they’re playing at the 10th-fastest adjusted tempo (76 possessions per game) and doing a great job on the glass (34.4% of offensive boards) for the season, and their offensive efficiency mark (113.8) is bolstered by deadeye markmanship from deep (39.3%) and ball security (a 16.4% turnover rate). It’s all helmed by coach Greg Kampe (who has been at Oakland for 31 years), whose dribble-drive offense emphasizes getting to the paint off of the dribble — the exact thing our defense is designed to stop. Something’s gotta give.
5’9” Kahlil Fielder led the charge against MSU, scoring 37 points (and making 14 of the 18 free throws) and dishing nine assists with just two turnovers. Fielder is scoring 26.6 points and averaging 9.3 assists per game this season. He’s scored more than 20 in every one of Oakland’s games, and has taken double-digit free throw attempts in his last five. He can shoot (38.4% from three), but if you play him too close, he blows by you and either finishes around the basket area (he’s shooting 57.6% in the restricted area), draws the foul, or finds a teammate.
Fielder is not alone — Oakland scores 88 points per game — but he has taken almost 100 shots more than 6’9” Percy Gibson, his second in command. Gibson is a load — he takes 70% of his shots around the rim — and he’s scoring 14.3 points and grabbing 7.9 rebounds (including a team-high 10.4% of available offensive boards). He’s front-loaded his numbers somewhat: he’s shooting 39.1% in four games against teams in Pomeroy’s top 150 and scoring 10.4 points per game. Four other Grizzlies also average double figures.
Oakland’s defense is mostly how fast they push the ball on offense. They surrender more than a point per possession, don’t force turnovers (17.1% of possessions end in one) and are vulnerable, as transition teams are, to offensive rebounding (foes are grabbing 30.6% of their misses). Gibson is slow afoot, and everyone else is slight. We should have a pretty distinct physical edge in this game.
We’re obviously going to have to keep Oakland mired in half court sets. The keys to success against them are simple: keep the dribbler in front of you, keep them from getting second opportunities, and play defense vertically without fouling when they dive to the rim. I think the offensive glass will take care of itself. We’re bigger and generally win one on one rebounding matchups when everyone remembers to box out. If they’re forced to take contested shots two thirds of the way through the shot clock, their offense will wither and it’ll be up to Felder to manufacture points on his own — something he can do, but less efficiently than when he’s flying up the middle of the floor. I don’t love the idea of Malcolm or London — neither of whom are exactly Barry Sanders on the cone drill — checking Felder, so that leaves Darius Thompson up for the gig. I’m intrigued by what he could do there, with his speed and long arms.
Verdict:
Felder is a very, very good player and I have a lot of respect for the coaching of Greg Kampe. Those things alone — not to mention Oakland’s slashing, attacking style — keep me from taking this one lightly. That said, we’re deeper and more talented, have a lot of bodies to throw at Felder, and have been very good at keeping the game at a pace we’re comfortable with against faster-paced teams in recent years. I think Oakland scores some points and maybe frustrates us a little, but that Anthony Gill goes off in what ends up a double digit Virginia win.
