Let’s start by directing a virtual high five to Tony Bennett for leading us to 20 wins for the fifth consecutive season. You can act like 20 isn’t a big deal because we’ve moved on to bigger and better things like 30, but if you do, I’d advise you to slow your roll: Virginia basketball only hit 20 wins three times in the 18 seasons from the 1993-94 season when I started following the team to CTB’s second year. 20 still feels nice.
While we’re talking milestones, beating Duke at Cameron Indoor is one of the last regular season peaks left for Tony Bennett to scale. In fairness, it’s hard: Duke is 50-6 in home ACC games in the six-plus seasons since CTB took over, with three of those losses coming to Miami (somewhere, Mike London is making a note to add “Mike London > Miami > Coach K” to his resume). CTB’s ‘Hoos are 0-3 in Cameron Indoor, but have at least partially scaled the hill in each one.
- The 2011 team started Will Sherrill, Bub, and Assane Sene, gave heavy minutes to a bunch of freshmen, and had no business hanging with a Duke team that would send seven guys to the NBA. They hung anyway, and actually led the Devils by nine at the 16:13 mark before being overwhelmed by Andre Dawkins and an avalanche of Duke threes in losing by 16.
- The 2013 team led by three at the half after getting 16 (of our 32) from Mike Scott, but he was swarmed in the second half and only added seven more as we lost by three.
- The ACC title-winning 2014 team gritted their way back after trailing throughout, finally taking their first lead of the game on two free throws by Malcolm with 37 seconds left. Amile Jefferson then rebounded a Rodney Hood miss and hit Rasheed Sulaimon for a corner three that bounced out and then back in. Duke won 69-65.
So we’ve been close but not quite there in our three previous trips to Cameron under CTB. Will tomorrow be his breakthrough? Three weeks ago, when Duke was losing consecutive home games to Syracuse and Notre Dame, I would have said probably. Now, with Duke the winner of three straight, I’m less sure.
No matter how well we’re playing, it’s hard to feel confident about a game in Cameron. There’s the aforementioned home court advantage, bolstered by a student section that looms over the court. There’s Mike Krzyzewski, one of the few basketball minds agile enough to lessen my cockiness about CTB, prowling the opposing sideline. There’s Brandon Ingram, a positionless 6’9” force being talked up by some as a potential first pick in the NBA draft. There’s a gaggle of talented shooters, ready to knock down from 25. You can make fun of Duke for falling out of the top 25 if you want, but do so at your own peril: this team is ranked 12th in Pomeroy’s rankings, still possesses plenty of talent, and probably hasn’t peaked yet.
Ingram’s Duke’s most interesting player. A rangy and springy 6’9,” he can handle some, shoot from deep (40.9%), and has scored more than 20 points eight times on his way to 16.9 points per game. I’m not sure who guards him: Isaiah and Marial may be too short, but AG and Evan might be too slow. We need some combination of those four to emerge by tomorrow afternoon. Grayson Allen leads Duke in scoring (20.8 ppg), and reminds me a little of an ACC-level James Harden in how he hits threes in bulk (43.9%, 15 of 23 during Duke’s winning streak), gets to the line (0.47 FT/FGA), and sets up teammates (3.6 apg). Luke Kennard comes and goes: the freshman hit 10 of 17 threes in scoring 30 against Notre Dame and 26 against NC State, but went scoreless against Syracuse (0-9 shooting) and scored eight against Georgia Tech. When he’s on, he’s liable to fire from anywhere and really opens up the lane for Allen and Ingram.
This year’s Duke team is as reliant on the three as any Krzyzewski has had. Threes make up 44% of the shots they’ve attempted in ACC games, and their three game winning streak has been bolstered by a 34 of 72 (47.3%) mark from deep. Duke is going to get looks at and make some threes tomorrow, but we can make it harder on them if we defend against penetration the way we have over the last four games. So many of their best looks come from Grayson Allen drawing help with a drive and finding any one of three shooters for an open look.
Their defense misses Amile Jefferson’s steady hand everywhere, but feels it most acutely on the glass, where they’ve posted the second-worst defensive rebound rate (65.3%) in the ACC. Ingram struggles some with bigger post players, and none of Derryck Thornton, Allen, or Kennard are particularly deft perimeter defenders. The Devils are giving up 1.08 points per possession in ACC games, which would be the worst number they’ve finished a season with since Ken Pomeroy started keeping stats in 2002.
You have to pick your poison with Duke. They yield offensive boards (and Anthony Gill and Isaiah Wilkins are both capable of taking advantage), but if you crash, you’d better come down with it. If you don’t, Duke loves to get out with numbers and set up Kennard or Allen for a three from the wing. Our defensive improvement has been keyed by less emphasis on the offensive glass and more on getting back, so I’m not sure what the answer is for CTB, or if there is just one. Like the last few meetings, I expect this to be a back and forth of furious tactical maneuvering. On offense, I think AG is our biggest mismatch opportunity, and that he should be more of a focus than he has been in recent weeks.
Verdict:
So. Here it goes. If we keep the tempo closer to how we like it, give at least some attention to the offensive glass, keep Kennard from getting “anywhere across half court” confident, play vertically on D to keep the foul calls from being easy ones, and get points from someone other than the big two, we should be OK. As for the verdict, I’ll leave it at this: I have a good feeling, but not enough of one to call anything but another close game between two good teams. I hope we get the opportunity to close the deal late and take advantage of our edge in depth and experience.
