Mark my words, this will be one of the toughest first round opponents that Duke has faced in its NCAA history. Sure, UNCW is no Kansas or UNC-CH, for while they might not have the stature of these programs, they make up for it with solid, tough, nose-to-the-grindstone basketball
However, here’s why this is a bad matchup for Duke. UNC-Wilmington plays extremely physical basketball. The Seahawks rank 350th in the nation in defensive free-throw rate, only edging out West Virginia in that category. In addition, when you’re putting opponents on the line as often as Press Virginia, you are not a team that a coach with a six-man rotation wants to deal with.
It would be one thing if UNC-Wilmington committed 35 fouls while its opponent stayed out of foul trouble.
In most games, UNC-Wilmington is able to get its opponent to follow suit. Georgetown committed 27 fouls when it faced the Seahawks back in December, and they have played 17 games in which the opponent committed as least 20 fouls.
The Blue Devils barely have enough guys to commit 20 fouls. They committed 25 in the loss to Notre Dame in the ACC quarterfinal and lost Grayson Allen, Marshall Plumlee and Chase Jeter to disqualifications in the process.
Even if the Blue Devils don’t get into foul trouble, UNC-Wilmington will try to push them around and make them uncomfortable. That might be enough to send Duke packing.
UNC-Wilmington is outscoring teams 79-71 this season. The Seahawks are #39 in scoring nationally. UNCW is shooting 45.6% from the field and 33.6% from 3-point range. The Seahawks make 70.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 41.7% from the field and 33.7% from three-point range. Wilmington averages 37.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 33.8. The Seahawks averages 13.4 assists, 11.4 turnovers, 7.5 steals, and 4.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.4 assists, 15.2 turnovers, 5 steals, and 3.1 steals per game.
Chris Flemmings averages 16.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Denzel Ingram averages 12.5 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Craig Ponder averages 11.1 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. C,J, Bryce averages 9.9 points and 4 rebounds per game. Jordan Talley averages 8.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 4 assists per game. Five other players will get significant time in the rotation.
Duke is outscoring teams 82-72 this season. The Blue Devils are #17 nationally in scoring. Duke is shooting 45.9% from the field and 38.7% from 3-point range. The Blue Devils are #22 in three point shooting nationally. Duke makes 72.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.5% from the field and 33.9% from 3-point range. Duke averages 36.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 33.4 per game. The Blue Devils average 13 assists, 9.6 turnovers, 6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 13.8 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 4.3 steals and 3.2 blocks per game.
Grayson Allen averages 21.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Brandon Ingram averages 16.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Luke Kennard averages 11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Matt Jones averages 11.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1 steal per game. Marshall Plumlee averages 8.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Derryck Thornton averages 7.8 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Amile Jefferson is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Keys to Watch For
Keys for UNC-Wilmington
- Guard Play
- If the Seahawks are to defeat the Blue Devils on Thursday, they will have to get excellent guard play from Chris Flemmings, Denzel Ingram, and Craig Ponder
- Production
- Flemmings leads UNC Wilmington in scoring at 16.1 points per game while Ingram is averaging 12.5 points and 3.4 assists per contest
- Shooting the 3-ball
- Flemmings, Ingram, and Ponder will all need to shoot well from long range since the Seahawks cannot compete with Duke’s athleticism
Keys for Duke
- Depth
- While Duke is not as deep as some of its teams in the past, the Blue Devils still have enough talent to win a number of games in this year’s Tournament.
- Athleticism
- Grayson Allen (21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and ACC Freshman of the Year Brandon Ingram (16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) will likely get the ball early and often to expose UNC Wilmington’s lack of athleticism
- Protect the Arc
- If Duke can prevent the Seahawks’ shooters from getting hot from beyond the arc, the Blue Devils should be able to take control of the game very early.
Overall
- UNC Wilmington has the players and the coaching in former Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts to make life tough for Duke
- Expect this to not be a cakewalk, but Duke should be able to pull away late by putting the game in hands of Ingram and Allen
Prediction
Duke has to find the dominant nature that they’ve shown in years past if they plan of making much noise in the tournament. Facing a UNC-Wilmington team that can score at a good clip will put pressure on the Blue Devils. Allen and Ingram are going to have to do the heavy lifting for Duke to have success, especially without Jefferson in the low block. It will be a battle, but Duke puts it away late as it fights through certain fatigue and picks up the win, 80-72.
