If you’re someone who derives comfort from meaningless historical tidbits, here’s one: the last time we made the Elite Eight, we got there by beating a member of the current Big 12. The difference in this year’s game and the 1995 win over Kansas is that we were massive underdogs in ’95, a script that has been flipped this year with our emergence as a trendy Final Four pick following the demise of the other single-digit seeds in our region.
With 28 wins and a Sweet Sixteen berth, we’ve advanced to a point where the season can defensibly be called a success — the 11-1 non-conference slate, undefeated mark in the ACC at home, and trips to the ACC Tournament final and Sweet Sixteen would back you up — but we also haven’t quite accomplished enough for me to not feel like we’re leaving something on the table if it ends on Friday.
Programs only get so many swings at the piñata with this kind of talent, experience, chemistry, and versatility. Rest assured that I’m thankful for the regular season successes, ACC Tourney run (after we didn’t even make the semis for roughly forever) and Sweet Sixteen (the third we’ve made since I started paying attention in ’93-’94), but I know that this group of players is capable of more, want badly for this set of fourth years (particularly Malcolm Brogdon, but all of ’em really) to achieve the postseason success that will cement their legacy as program builders, and am anxious like a child perched at the top of the steps with Christmas morning just seconds away for Virginia basketball to make a long, eye-opening run into the NCAAs. I’m grateful, but still demanding. My expectations are high.
Iowa State is the fourth seed in the Midwest and highest remaining seed standing between us and the Final Four. The Cyclones went 21-10 in the regular season (10-8 in the Big 12), lost to Oklahoma in their Big 12 Tournament opener, and have rolled past Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock in the first two rounds of the NCAAs. They’re 5-8 against Ken Pomeroy’s top-50, but two of those wins were home victories over still-active Kansas and Oklahoma. We shared West Virginia and Virginia Tech as common opponents, going 2-1 to ISU’s 1-2 (a win over VT and two losses to WVU).
The Cyclones’ hiring of Steve Prohm to replace Fred Hoiberg was just about perfect for continuity’s sake, an important consideration since they start three seniors and two juniors (one of which is a candidate for early entry) and look at this as the last go-round for this particular nucleus. Iowa State’s last three teams under Hoiberg scored between 1.11 and 1.18 points per possession, took between 36.8% and 43.8% of their shots from behind the three point line, and finished in the top 35 in tempo. Prohm’s 2014-15 Murray State team, led by current Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cameron Payne, scored 1.15 points per possession, took 35% of their shots from behind the arc, and finished 67th in tempo. Steve Prohm isn’t Fred Hoiberg, but was a natural choice to keep a similar foot on the gas while gradually toning things down. You can even tell by how they like to start their high screen-heavy sets. Hoiberg’s — via CoachesClipboard.net — is on the left. Prohm’s — via mensbasketballhoopscoop — is on the right.
There are differences — Prohm likes his screens higher, for example — but both sets are designed to set a playmaking point guard loose to wreak havoc by creating for himself or others with the screener set up with space to score or create for himself as well and two wings spotting up for a swing pass and opportunity to fire the spot-up jumper or drive. Iowa State’s got all of the above. Senior Georges Niang and point guard Monte Morris make things go. Niang is one of college basketball’s most efficient forces, forward-sized at 6’8” and 230 but able to approach 40% from three (39% this season) and set up his teammates off the bounce (an assist rate of 18.9, or 3.3 per game). He’s scoring north of 20 points per game and is 63rd in the entire country in EFG% (59.9%). Morris is a magnificent pick and roll point guard, averaging 6.9 assists per game (28.7% of his possessions), turning it over on just 12.2%, and chipping in 13.9 points and 36.9% three point shooting. Abdel Nader (13.2 points, 37% 3PT) is a do-everything-but-handle (20% TO rate) wing, Matt Thomas is shooting 43% on almost six three point tries per game, and Jameel McKay holds things down inside, taking 68% of his shots at the rim and making 73% of them. ISU only goes six deep after an early season injury to Naz Mitrou-Long, but Deonte Burton is a Bonzie Colson type at 6’4,” 250 pounds and is able to take you inside (70.2% shooting at the rim) and out (he’s hit 45.9% of his 37 3PT tries).
ISU is like Miami after a triple-venti quad-pump latte. They run a lot of screens like the ‘Canes, and depend on a jitterbug point guard and creativity from a screener, but Morris and Niang are better players than Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McLellan, they have better pure shooting than Miami, and they try to get their offense within the first 15 seconds of the shot clock. The Cyclones boast the second most efficient offense in the country for the season (1.2 ppp), and they do it inside on transition (56.6% on twos) and from three (38.6%). Their weaknesses are a lack of free throws (they were dead last in D1 in percentage of points from the line) and offensive rebounding (26.7%), which is a result of McKay being left on his own on the boards.
Defense is their Achilles heel. No one beyond Thomas (who CTB compared to Joe Harris this week) is an elite defender — Nader seems OK, but Niang has short arms and leaden feet and Morris is thin — and the team as a whole surrendered a point per possession for the year and surrendered an EFG% of almost 50. They don’t force turnovers (17%), which is a relief considering their preferred pace, and aren’t great on the defensive glass (69.8%). McKay (5.6% of opposing opportunities) can block shots — especially coming from the weak side to help — but he’s not particularly stout as a one on one defender.
I don’t know that stopping Iowa State is in the cards for us. If Miami — a screen-heavy team that wants to spread the floor, attack the rim, and find shooters and creators on the weak side — is the best comparison, then we won’t, as allowed between one and 1.19 points per possession in the three meetings this year. Teams that have beaten ISU haven’t even really stopped them either, as the Cyclones scored at least 1.1 points per possession in eight of their 11 losses. The key — and I’m looking at their losses to Northern Iowa in December, Texas A&M in January, and Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament as examples — is to keep them from getting out ahead of our defense for easy looks (think how Duke found early success running off of makes in their last trip to Charlottesville), hit the Cyclones hard on the interior (Niang and McKay combined for 23 fouls and three DQs in those three games), and contest their passes — with our arms up and active — for 40 minutes. On offense, we will need to maximize each possession, limiting turnovers, getting a performance on the offensive glass from our bigs alone (so the wings can get back) similar to the one we got in beating North Carolina in Charlottesville, and making shots, because the looks will be there. I don’t think they have anyone who can stop Anthony Gill, so again — for the third straight game — AG will be a key. We should (and will need to) dominate the glass on both ends.
I think Isaiah Wilkins will start the game on Niang (with a shorter leash after his yippy performance on Andrew Chrabascz against Butler), Malcolm will start on Morris, Perrantes will guard Thomas (similarly to how he started on Dunham against Butler), and Devon Hall will take Nader. Marial Shayok will be prominently involved, and intrigues me as an option for Niang with his wingspan and ability to contest.
Verdict:
Whoo boy. Both of these teams are trying to send successful cores off with something special to close things out. We’ve got vastly superior depth, which unfortunately is less of a factor after five days off than it would be on say, Sunday in the regional final. I think Niang will get his, but we’ll need to counter by working through AG (and perhaps Mike Tobey) and doing everything we can to limit Monte Morris’s impact. Niang gets the headlines (and deserves them), but Morris is an under-appreciated player with the ability to carve up a defense and make his teammates appear better than they are.
I think we have the better team overall, love our edge on the interior and on the glass, and think we’ll be able to get back on defense enough to at least make Iowa State think about where their next points are coming from. We have a history — think regular season wins over UNC, VCU, WVU, — of success against teams that rely on transition baskets and early action, and that stems from discipline, which is as apparent as it has ever been on this team right now. With that in mind, I’m cautiously optimistic about an Elite Eight appearance while also really nervous. Is it Friday yet?
