In preparing for another opportunity that I had to talk ACC basketball, I needed to compare non-conference and conference action and see how offensive efficiency is affected. I looked back at data for the past 5-6 years and pulled data by team to compare non-conference and conference action.
To examine offensive efficiency, you have to look at the two components that are used to derive it, points per game and tempo (or possessions per game). After examing the data returned, the first thing that stood out to me is that tempo is unaffected. Whether a team is playing in non-conference action or conference action the pace at which they play is the same.
When looking at points per game, its another story though. Every ACC team saw a drop in average points per game in conference play, some by as many as 5 points (UNC, Virginia, Wake Forest).
With points per game dropping and tempo staying the same, its pretty easy to derive that offensive efficiency goes down as well. Basically, in 100 possessions of conference play, ACC teams score just over 4 points less than they would in non-conference action.
Non-Conference vs Conference Play Since 2006
| Non-Conference | Conference | Difference | |||||||
| Team | PPG | Tempo | Off Eff | PPG | Tempo | Off Eff | PPG | Tempo | Off Eff |
| BC | 71 | 66 | 107.5758 | 68 | 65 | 104.6154 | -3 | -1 | -2.96037 |
| CL | 74 | 68 | 108.8235 | 71 | 68 | 104.4118 | -3 | 0 | -4.41176 |
| DU | 78 | 68 | 114.7059 | 76 | 68 | 111.7647 | -2 | 0 | -2.94118 |
| FS | 71 | 68 | 104.4118 | 69 | 67 | 102.9851 | -2 | -1 | -1.42669 |
| GT | 72 | 69 | 104.3478 | 69 | 69 | 100 | -3 | 0 | -4.34783 |
| MD | 76 | 70 | 108.5714 | 73 | 70 | 104.2857 | -3 | 0 | -4.28571 |
| MI | 72 | 66 | 109.0909 | 69 | 66 | 104.5455 | -3 | 0 | -4.54545 |
| NC | 84 | 74 | 113.5135 | 79 | 72 | 109.7222 | -5 | -2 | -3.79129 |
| ST | 72 | 66 | 109.0909 | 69 | 67 | 102.9851 | -3 | 1 | -6.10583 |
| VA | 71 | 66 | 107.5758 | 66 | 66 | 100 | -5 | 0 | -7.57576 |
| VT | 70 | 66 | 106.0606 | 69 | 67 | 102.9851 | -1 | 1 | -3.07553 |
| WF | 74 | 70 | 105.7143 | 69 | 70 | 98.57143 | -5 | 0 | -7.14286 |
| Summary | 73.75 | 68.08333 | 108.2902 | 70.58333 | 67.91667 | 103.906 | -3.16666667 | -0.166666667 | -4.38419 |
What factors account for this drop in offensive efficiency in conference play? Let's take a look.
Factors
- Competition: The ACC has been one of the better conferences in the nation for some time.
- Familiarity: Better gameplanning typically will give an advantage to defenses.
Those are two off the top of my head, I'm positive there are more. As conference play begins tomorrow, if you're waiting for your team to start playing more up-tempo basketball or scoring more, you're likely going to keep waiting.
