The Cards look to score their first major victory of the Pat Kelsey era.
Louisville Cardinals (3-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)
Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinals
Game Time: Noon
Location: Imperial Arena: Paradise Island, Bahamas
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Beth Mowins (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analyst)
Favorite: Indiana by 2.5
Series: Indiana leads, 12-9
Last Meeting: Indiana won 74-66 on Nov. 20, 2023 in the Empire Classic 3rd place game in Brooklyn
About Indiana:
It’s year four of the Mike Woodson era in Bloomington and it feels like a make-or-break season when it comes to the question of whether or not the IU alum is the right man to lead the Hoosiers back to what they believe is their rightful place near the top of the college basketball food chain.
Expectations are sky-high for the “make” portion of that equation to cash in thanks to the return of a handful of the most productive players from last season’s disappointing squad, and the addition of some of the top-rated players in the transfer portal.
The 14th-ranked Hoosiers have cruised to a 4-0 start, but have looked disjointed at various points against a quartet of teams that didn’t present much of a challenge.
Leading the way so far for IU has been former Louisville recruit Mackenzie Mgbako, who is off to a blazing start after something of a disappointing freshman campaign. The versatile 6’9 forward is averaging 18.8 ppg and scored a career-high 31 in the team’s season-opening rout over SIU Edwardsville. Mgbako has been the team’s best three-point shooter so far this season (53.3 percent) and has also been a monster on the offensive glass. Expect J’Vonne Hadley to be the man tasked with trying to slow down the super talented sophomore, and keep him from creating second chance opportunities for himself and others.
Washington State transfer guard Myles Rice has been tasked with running the show and has done so successfully up to this point. He’s scored 20 or more points in each of IU’s last two games and has dished out 18 total assists. Rice, like a handful of guys on this IU team, has struggled a bit with turnovers (3.3 per game) this season, which has led Woodson to pair him more with Trey Galloway recently to have multiple distributors on the floor at the same time and allow Rice to focus more on scoring than running the show. Galloway is less of a threat to score, but he leads the team in assists at 5.3 per game.
Arizona big man transfer Omar Ballo was Woodson’s largest offseason addition, both figuratively and literally. The 7-foot senior has 34 career double-doubles and is the elite rim protector and back to the basket scorer that Louisville is so clearly lacking this season. He pairs with 6’9 junior Malik Reneau (13.5 ppg) to create arguably the toughest frontcourt that Louisville will face this season.
Ballo is currently averaging a career-high in minutes, and with Indiana set to play three games in three days, it’ll be interesting to see if Woodson tries to stagger some lineups where Reneau occupies the five while Ballo gets some extended rest.
Louisville and Indiana are as close to exact opposites as you’re going to find in this tournament. Case in points: IU has shot the three well this season, but they haven’t shot it often. While they’re hitting the outside shot at a 35.7 percent clip, just 30.4 percent of their field goal attempts are coming from beyond the arc. That’s the 343rd-ranked ratio out of 364 D-I teams. Louisville, while shooting just 29.4 percent from three, is taking a higher percentage of its shots from deep than all but one other team in the country.
Indiana has a clear advantage when it comes to size and physicality. If the Hoosiers execute accordingly, they should be able to consistently score around the rim without a ton of resistance from a Louisville team that has struggled with interior defense against MUCH smaller foes.
U of L should and likely will be able to speed the game up. Indiana is currently playing at a faster pace (85th in tempo) than they ever have under Woodson. A high possession game with a high number of live ball turnovers and transition opportunities should open the door for a Louisville upset.
There are three primary reasons for optimism here:
1) Indiana struggles with turnovers and Louisville thrives when it comes to turning teams over. The Cardinals arrive in The Bahamas ranked fourth in country in opponent turnover percentage and will immediately face a team that is giving the ball away on 18.9 percent of its offensive possessions. Chucky Hepurn is fourth in the country in steals per game, and could make life absolutely miserable for the Hoosier guards.
2) Indiana has not been great on the defensive glass. Neither has Louisville, but that’s a concern for the other end of the floor. Pat Kelsey loves crashing five guys on the offensive glass, and in this game, that philosophy should result in a number of second chance opportunities.
3) Louisville should get open looks from the outside. Challenging IU at the rim is probably not going to end well for most guys on U of L’s roster. Thankfully, the Hoosiers have struggled with perimeter defense pretty consistently during the season’s opening weeks. In the halfcourt, U of L’s versatile forwards and bigs should be able to pull Indiana’s interior defenders out of their comfort zone, which should result in open looks from the outside. I know it’s difficult for a lot of people to accept, but this is a game where if the Cards have 45 good looks from three, they need to attempt all 45 of them.
Everybody say it with me: Gotta make shots.
An important note here is that this game is every bit as important for Indiana as it is for Louisville. While the Cardinals need to stack quality wins (and position themselves to play quality opponents for the remainder of the tournament) because of the ACC’s lack of success so far this season, the Hoosiers need to do it because of the lack of pop on their non-conference schedule. IU already dispatched of an average South Carolina, but now has no other scheduled non-con games remaining against teams ranked in the top 80 on KenPom (outside of Louisville).
Indiana fans have been frustrated at times with their team’s lack of effort and focus so far this season. You wouldn’t think that something like that would be an issue in a game of this magnitude. If it is, Louisville has to take advantage. The Cardinals likely aren’t more talented top to bottom than this Hoosier team, but outworking them would go a long way towards pulling off the most significant victory of the young Kelsey era to date.
Notable:
—In its history, Louisville has 31 regular season tournament championships. The Cardinals have lost five consecutive regular season tournament games after going 0-3 at the 2022 Maui Invitational and 0-2 at last year’s Empire Classic.
—Louisville has a 6-2 all-time record in the Battle 4 Atlantis, and are 4-2 in tournament games played in The Bahamas. The Cardinals made the championship game in both of their prior appearances: U of L lost to Duke in the 2012 title game and to Baylor in the 2016 title game.
—Louisville enters the Battle 4 Atlantis ranked sixth in the country in three-point attempts per game (34.0), seventh in turnovers forced per game (19.0), and 14th in turnover margin (6.8).
—Louisville has 11 players who were on teams that played in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The roster in total has made 14 NCAA Division I Tournament appearances at their previous schools, playing in 20 NCAA Tournament games across their careers.
—Louisville has a 254-80 record against non-conference opponents over the last 23 seasons (includes postseason).
—Indiana doesn’t have a mascot. Isn’t that weird? Have you ever thought about that?
—Louisville is 2-4 in games against Indiana played at neutral sites.
—As a head coach, Pat Kelsey is 0-13 against opponents ranked in the AP top 25 poll. He is 0-1 in such games at Louisville. Indiana is currently ranked No. 14 in the poll.
—The winner of the Battle 4 Atlantis has gone onto win the NCAA Championship on two occasions: the 2017-18 Villanova Wildcats and the 2018-19 Virginia Cavaliers.
—Louisville is 221-15 over the last 21 seasons and 2-0 this season when scoring 80 points or more.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Since 2004, Louisville is 130-0 when leading by more than 10 points at halftime.
—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 163 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Indiana 77, Louisville 73
