Everyone is going to read that headline and say that I am overreacting. I have not come to this conclusion lightly. I will explain how I have come to this conclusion throughout this post. I dove into the results and what I found was concerning. First off, I want to say this. I like Dave Doeren, I think he runs a clean program. He seems to be a solid person and I wish it would have worked here in Raleigh. The facts of the matter show that it has not worked out here in Raleigh.
The biggest problem with the Dave Doeren tenure is his record. Doeren has compiled a 51-45 record overall and 25-38 in the ACC. That is not exactly a record that one can hag his hat on. For instance, Tom O’Brien’s record at NC State? 40-35 overall and 22-26 in the ACC. O’Brien was fired after his 6th season. Doeren was given a contract extension. What was Chuck Amato’s record? 49-37 overall and 25-31 in the ACC. Chuck Amato had something neither O’Brien nor Doeren had, a 10 win season. However, he was fired after 7 seasons. So in comparison to NC State’s last 2 coaches, who ended up fired, Dave Doeren is right in line from a record standpoint.
Let’s now talk about signature wins. Amato had that Gator Bowl victory against a Notre Dame team that ended 10-2 and was 9th in the BCS standings. O’Brien beat a Florida State team on the road that ended the year 12-2 and 8th in the AP poll. What is Dave Doeren’s signature win? Louisville in 2017? A team that ended the year 8-5 and unranked? 2014 UCF who ended up 9-4 and also ended up unranked? Dave Doeren has yet to beat a team that ended the season ranked in the Top 25.
People look back longingly on the 2017 and 2018 teams. Those were hands down Dave Doeren’s best teams. Let’s dive deeper into those teams, shall we? 2017 was the best of those teams. It had 5 defensive players that were drafted into the NFL. On offense, they had 6 players that will end up being drafted into the NFL. That is 12 players on that roster that ended up getting drafted. That 2017 team won 9 games. 11 players drafted and you only win 9 games. Now, look at the 2018 team. The 2018 team brought back an NFL QB, 2 NFL running backs, 2 Wide Receivers, and a Center that are on NFL rosters. Add 2 more defensive linemen who will end up drafted in 2019. They also only won 9 games. So, over a 3-year span, 13 players that came through the NC State program went on to be drafted into the NFL.
Let’s now talk about national perception. NC State fans are sensitive about this. Being in the shadow of the flagship university of the state definitely contributes to the “little brother perception.” UNC will always get more attention because of the success of the basketball team. Brand recognition matters, I mean, they have a color named after them. NC State has to work hard to overcome that brand. The national media uses NC State as an example of mediocrity.
Pete Thamel, Stewart Mandel has used NC State as an example of what a middle of the road program looks like on their podcasts. That is the only coverage that NC State gets nationally. The ACC Network ran a graphic earlier this year on how many of the media members could complete the Krispy Kreme Challenge or the amount of wins NC State was going to end the season with. This is what the national perception of NC State is. People will come back with the argument that if the program wins more, the perception changes. Well, in Dave Doeren’s tenure at NC State, they have an under .500 record in ACC play. Doeren has had 8 seasons to win, and hasn’t. What makes you believe that he can?
How about recruiting? Well, let’s look at that as well. With the population shift that is happening North Carolina is producing better and better talent. According to The Banner Society, in 2019 the state of North Carolina produced 15 blue-chip football players. That’s 7th in the country. if you add in Virginia and South Carolina, NC State’s recruiting footprint, that number increases to 28. According to Rivals, NC State signed 3 of the state’s top 25 players. Where did the other 22 sign? 10 went out of state and 12 went to UNC. NC State’s recruiting ranks have been all over the place during Doeren’s run. Since 2015, NC State’s according to Rival’s, NC State’s recruiting classes have ranked 35, 43, 53, 34, 28, 42. With a state that is producing the talent that North Carolina has, NC State has to get better.
When Debbie Yow hired Dave Doeren, the stated goal was to have a football program that was perennially in the Top 25. During Doeren’s run, NC State has been ranked a total of 12 weeks. Through 8 seasons, NC State has only been ranked for 12 weeks. That is behind programs like, Boise State, UCF, Memphis, Navy, and Houston. Doeren has been given 8 seasons to produce results and I’d argue that he has failed.
There will be a segment of the fanbase who say I am being unreasonable and that in a pandemic, where is the money going to come from. I will counter with this. The contract isn’t terrible financially. Doeren is making $3.25 million per season. His contract runs through 2023. With this as the starting point, if the buyout is the contract, that means the buyout is $9.75 million. While expensive, it is not daunting. That is on the assumption that the buyout is the rest of the contract. There is a scenario where that number is much less. Let’s just say that the buyout is $8 million. Finding $8 million is going to be hard, but not impossible.
I am a fan, I want that little number in the upper right-hand corner of the logo when NC State is on TV. I do not want to be used as an example of a mediocre program. I want to have a segment or two on ESPN College GameDay. These are not unreasonable desires for this program. I’d argue they are the bare minimum of what this program should be.
After looking at this set of data, and you still think that Dave Doeren is the right guy for the job. That is okay, there is an argument that can be made in support. However, if you believe that, you have to understand that the ceiling that the program can get to is 9 wins. However, the floor seems to be 7 wins. Which is the definition of a mediocre program. Doeren has been given 8 seasons so you cannot say that NC State is acting in an irrational manner. I think that keeping Dave Doeren isn’t a terrible idea, but that means as a fanbase we have to understand that NC State will win between 7-8 wins. If they catch lightning in a bottle they could get 9 wins. If everything goes wrong they will 4 games.
That is where NC State is at the moment. It is a risk to fire a coach, especially during a pandemic. However, I believe that to take that next step, NC State needs to move on from Dave Doeren.
