Until Wake Forest improves upon its defensive woes it will not get better any time soon
It should come as no shock to anybody who has watched Wake Forest play basketball this season, or for that matter, any of the last 8 years, that the Demon Deacons do not play a lot of good defense.
We all know how bad Wake was on defense in the first two years of [Name Redacted], finishing 240th and 202nd nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom (anything over 100th nationally for a Power 5 team is simply poor), but what is more shocking to me is that his final two years of 102nd and 108th nationally in his third and fourth years, are better than any year under Danny Manning at Wake.
Wake Forest has finished with the following ranks in the ACC and nationally under Danny Manning:
2015 - 125th (12th)
2016 - 128th (13th)
2017 - 176th (14th)
2018 - 134th (15th, worst)
Not only was the defense bad under the first year of Manning, which could perhaps be attributable to implementing a system and a lot of first year players in the program, but it has gotten worse compared to the rest of the ACC in each of the following years.
When Manning was hired it was somewhat expected based on his two years as a collegiate head coach (sample size of two years for a high-major coach is another issue for another day) that Wake Forest would hang its hat on defense.
Tulsa ranked 131st nationally in Manning’s first year and then a very impressive 51st nationally in his second season.
Those teams were known for an aggressive brand of defense, ranking highly in limiting opponents shooting percentage, forcing a lot of turnovers, and also rebounding the ball. They fouled a lot, but that was likely due to the tenacious nature of the team and intensity that it played with defensively.
That is basically the opposite of what I see when I watch Wake Forest play defense.
This season Wake Forest ranks last in conference play in turnovers forced and also last in conference play in fouls. Basically the team fouls a lot but doesn’t force any turnovers. That’s extremely problematic and tells a story about the overall defense that is being played.
Looking for some sort of pattern defensively to establish an identity under Manning is a bit difficult, but it has been horrendous at forcing turnovers, ranking 288th, 327th, 306th, and 218th nationally from 2015-2018. This is probably a big part of why the team is so bad in transition offense, there just aren’t many easy buckets being scored in the open court.
While a lot of people tend to get mad about the 3-pt% that the Deacs are allowing this season, I chalk that up primarily to random variance and don’t put too much stock in it. 2-pt% defense is a much better indicator of how good a defense is overall, and despite ranking 64th in 2-pt defense this season, the prior three years have seen sub-200 rankings in two out of three years, and a 195th ranking in the other.
Plain and simple Wake Forest just has not been anywhere near good enough defensively from a statistical standpoint.
I have written about this before, but it seems the primary issues stem from the guards not being able to stay in front of really anybody in man-to-man situations. Guards from Liberty, Drake, Georgia Southern, and of course ACC opponents continue to just beat our guys off the dribble and force the defense into help mode.
The pick-and-roll strategy is also baffling most of the time, with the preferred method to hedge the defensive big man for a split second before he retreats, in theory giving the guard time to get through the screen and back onto his primary man.
The problem with this is that the guards aren’t fighting through the screens hard enough, and the big men that Wake have right now aren’t hedging out far enough (nor should they with Sarr and Moore both being 7 feet tall) to impede the ball-handlers vision.
This leads to one of two things most of the time: either the ball-handling guard getting to the basket at ease, causing the rest of the defense to collapse off their men at the wings resulting in an easy layup or a wide open three, or the ball-handler getting the ball to the screener because the defensive big men are “floating” in no-mans-land between guarding the ball-handler and guarding the screener.
One of the benefits to playing a bigger lineup that I have harped on in the past few weeks (PG-Brown-Mitchell-Sarr-Moore) would be the ability to switch everything on pick and rolls at the 1 through 4, and not really allow Moore to get put in those positions. If we aren’t going to go with a zone defense to limit the effectiveness of the pick-and-roll then we need to at least try SOMETHING else than what is going on now.
However, the biggest individual problem on defense right now is obvious, transition defense. Most of these problems hinge on two things: not turning the ball over in the open court on offense, and simply putting forth the effort to get back once a shot is missed or a turnover is committed.
Right now Wake is turning the ball over at a very high clip out of the backcourt, and putting in minimal effort to get back on defense after the offensive possession ends.
How many times against Louisville did the Cards get on a 4-on-2 or a 3-on-1 fast break out of a turnover or seemingly a benign missed shot?
I don’t know the exact number, but the answer is “way too many”.
If you can’t put forth the effort and energy to sprint back down the court to limit transition baskets then how in the world can you be expected to execute anything else at the level needed in the ACC?
This isn’t just failure on the “attention to detail” aspect, but the most basic level of what is expected when you are on scholarship to play any sport—-effort.
The Deacs rank 347th nationally (out of 351 teams) in transition defense, allowing a basket on 52% of all transition plays, and a woeful 1.175 points per possession. They are the worst Power 5 team in the country.
For reference, the teams behind Wake in this are: Southern Utah, North Dakota, Ball State, and Pepperdine. The teams right in front of Wake? Drexel, St. Bonaventure, and Air Force.
Until Wake Forest starts playing more defense and taking pride individually in putting forth 100% effort on the defensive side of the ball then it will continue to be the Wake Forest _emon _eacons and we will continue to see the losses that come as a result of that.
