Restricted to 10 scholarships by the NCAA, it feels like this Syracuse team is the leftovers of the 2013-’14 team that were runner ups to us in the ACC regular season. Gone are the stars — C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis, Jerami Grant, and Rakeem Christmas are all playing for checks somewhere — and the role players from that team (four of Cuse’s top six players saw time on that team) have inherited the minutes left behind, forcing Syracuse to create a slow (336th in adjusted tempo), ugly (‘Cuse and their opponents combine to turn it over on 19.2% of possessions and for an EFG% of less than 50) game to find success. It’s something we’re familiar with — our coach has been quoted multiple times in previous seasons saying that we don’t have the stars other teams do, so our defensive system and slow tempo even the playing field — but it’s jarring to see other teams do it and be game planned against that way.
Michael Gbinje is the juice of the Orange. The senior swingman leads them in scoring (17.1 ppg) and assists (4.6) while taking more threes (133) than twos (124) this season (and more than he took –125 — all of last season). The increased reliance on the trey from Gbinje means that all of Syracuse’s three top scorers and shot-takers operate primarily from behind the arc. The other two guys are senior Trevor Cooney (14 ppg, 37.3%, 7.5 3pa/game) and freshman Malachi Richardson (12.9 ppg, 33.1%, 6.2 3pa/game). Cooney’s story is the same as it ever was: awful shot selection, but he’s streaky enough to be scary. He’s riding a hot streak into Charlottesville, as he’s hit 16 of 38 (42.1%) over ‘Cuse’s last four games. Richardson had a rough time getting his footing in Syracuse’s out of conference slate, but has hit 19-40 threes in ACC games. All of those threes make for a lot of offensive rebound chances, and that’s where Tyler Roberson comes in. He’s logged double doubles in all three games of Syracuse’s resurgence, and has 24 offensive rebounds over that span (by comparison, Anthony Gill — a good offensive rebounder by any metric — has 24 over our last 10 games). I can’t stress how important it is to keep him off of the glass: putbacks account for 34 of his 84 made baskets this season. The fifth starter is stretch four Tyler Lydon (8.9 ppg, 41.2% 3PT).
Jim Boeheim’s patented 2-3 is still confusing teams into turnovers and baiting them into firing contested threes. Deep jumpers account for 41.6% of shot attempts for Syracuse opponents (a high number), but they’ve made just 28.9% (a very, very low one) which — combined with the high turnover rate and Lydon blocking shots (7.6%) — is why they’re surrending just 0.95 points per possession this season.
Here’s why I think we’re in good shape. The four teams that beat Syracuse to start ACC play held on to the ball (a 16.7% turnover rate), dominated the offensive glass (38.5%), and shot 50% or better on two point shots, which are all things that have been hallmarks of Virginia basketball during the Bennett era. Sure, the offensive glass has been touch and go lately (good in the three wins, less in the three losses), but the other two factors (a 14.5% turnover rate and a steady 52.6% mark on twos) have been pretty steadily good. Syracuse gives up quality assisted makes (more than two thirds of baskets against them come from assists) if you’re patient enough to find them. With Devon Hall likely to join London and Malcolm in the starting lineup again, we’ll have three guys who are able handlers and passers, with a fourth if Isaiah Wilkins starts as well. Isaiah is a key — he’s mastered the high/low this season (assists in 10 straight games), and could pick a zone apart finding Gill and Tobey for easy hoops. On defense, Syracuse’s shooters are obviously a problem, but we struggle more against threes created by guards that dive to the rim, and the Orange don’t have anyone — even Gbinje — who consistently tries to get into the lane. Finally, the x-factors favor us: we’re much deeper than the Orange and playing at home, even if our home court advantage will be nullified somewhat by the weather.
Verdict:
The Cliff’s Notes version of the preview: if we can avoid dumb turnovers against the zone and handle our business on the defensive glass, we should win this game.
