Larry Fedora enters Kenan Stadium for likely the last time.
BREAKING: Multiple outlets are reporting that Larry Fedora will be out as UNC coach (post continues below)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: UNC is right in a close game, even has the lead with under five minutes to play, only to lose the game in a heartbreaking fashion. For the third time this season, and the second at home, the Tar Heels held a late lead only to be unable to close the door on a good opponent and falling in a gut-wrenching manner. Carolina came from behind to take a 28-21 lead in the 4th quarter against NC State, only to allow the Wolfpack to tie the game late and ultimately win in overtime. UNC finished its worst season in a decade and a half with a 2-9 record, 1-7 in the ACC, with seven of the nine losses by a combined 47 points.
Carolina hosted the Wolfpack on a cold, rainy, miserable day that gave an already apathetic fan base even more reason to stay away from Kenan Stadium. Once more the Tar Heels gave a valiant effort and played well enough to win a game, but once more they couldn’t close the deal as UNC lost for the 21st time in its last 27 games.
Speculation now turns to the fate of seventh-year head coach Larry Fedora, as UNC followed up an injury-riddled 3-9 campaign in 2017 with a 2-9 campaign this year (which likely would have been 2-10 if UNC had been able to play Central Florida in the game cancelled by Hurricane Florence). Fedora had quite the bookends to the season: the year began with his bizarre, tone-deaf comments about CTE and the state of football in America, and ended with his bizarre, tone-deaf comments about the post-game altercation between the Heels and Pack, which he denied took place:
Fedora’s seven seasons can be divided into two periods: the first four-and-three-quarter years, and the last two-and-one-quarter years. From 2012 until mid-November 2016, Fedora’s Heels were 39-22 with a first-place-tie division finish in 2012 and an 8-0 ACC record and division title in 2015. Through the first weekend in November, 2016, UNC was 7-2 and ranked in the top 20 heading into a Thursday night game at Duke with a chance to crawl back into first place in the Coastal Division. That game would begin a familiar refrain for Carolina fans – UNC had a second-half lead but couldn’t hold on and lost 28-27. After rebounding with a win against the Citadel to move to 8-3 on the season, Carolina’s furious comeback against NC State fell short and then Mitch Trubisky’s pick-six in the bowl game against Stanford turned the tide and another UNC rally fell short as the Heels could not capitalize on a tying two-point conversion and a 7-2 start to the season ended in a disappointing 8-5, with the three losses by a combined 10 points.
The 2017 season was derailed by the early departure of Trubisky to the NFL Draft and a stunning number of injuries to over a quarter of UNC’s scholarship players. Despite being short-handed in nearly every game, the Tar Heels remained competitive and seemed poised to rebound this season. Instead, Carolina was saddled with NCAA suspensions due to players selling complimentary shoes. The suspensions and key injuries kept the Heels from putting their best lineup on the field most of the season, but again UNC remained competitive but the wins were few and far between. Since that Duke game 745 days ago, UNC is 6-21, with three of those victories over FCS opponents.
So now UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham faces a choice: stick with the coach who navigated the NCAA unpleasantness and give him one more chance to salvage his UNC career, likely with significant changes in coordinators, or make a change at the top with a coach who started 39-22 but with the loss to NC State now finds his UNC career record at 45-43.
On the plus side of the ledger, if you count the 2017 season as a mulligan with all the injuries, this is really the first season where you can lay a significant underperformance at the feet of Fedora and his staff. Many coaches in Fedora’s spot are essentially served notice and then allowed to have a year to save his job. This has been a popular rumor over the past few weeks, that Fedora would be encouraged to give his staff a major shake-up in a last-ditch effort to avoid being sacked. And perhaps the most telling thing in Fedora’s favor is that, in spite of a 2-9 season, UNC never gave up. The team never quit and fought to the bitter end – literally. Fedora never lost the team and they never gave up on him. I know there is an adage in football that goes “you are what your record says you are”, but there is a difference between UNC’s 2-win season and, say, Louisville’s (the Cardinals lost to rival Kentucky by 46 on Saturday; Carolina lost seven games by a combined 47 points).
On the minus side, Carolina football appears to be trending downward with no reversal of that trend in sight. Yes, the Tar Heels return a significant amount of talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but for how much longer? UNC has its worst-ranked recruiting class in at least 15 years on tap and word on the street is that the Tar Heel staff has a sour relationship with high school coaches in North Carolina, which would seem to be borne out by the recent misses on big-time local recruits. In addition, over the past seven years, Fedora’s teams haven’t exactly been known for playing smart football, nor will Fedora be confused for Nick Saban or Bill Belichick on game strategy or clock management. Add to that the fact that the fan base seems to have checked out on the Heels and on Fedora, and you have to wonder at what point empty seats and diminished financial interest outweigh the buyout hit that UNC will take in the short term.
For what it’s worth, it’s time for Carolina to bite the bullet and pay Larry Fedora to ride off into the sunset with eternal thanks for navigating the NCAA mess and for the 2015 season. If Cunningham is going to play the long game, there is no advantage to keeping Fedora any longer. Again while the quarterback situation may be solved with either Cade Fortin or Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant for next season, what lies beyond? It’s not like UNC will be welcoming a top-notch recruiting class and a renewed hope for 2020 and beyond. No, it’s time for a re-boot for Carolina football and the beginning of a new era. The next few days will be interesting for sure.
