Another year of college football is nearly upon us and that means that every fan base is eternally optimistic and hopeful for at least a bowl game, if not more. 5Dimes released the over/under win total for every BCS team in America (courtesy of CBSSports.com), so let's jump right in and take a look at them.
Note: This will certainly make somebody angry and I haven't done an insane amount of research. I'm picking and OVER or UNDER in every case, although some I feel more confident about than others. I also do not promise to be balanced with the OVERs and UNDERs and some may not even make sense if totaled up. *shrug*. If you don't like them, then do your own ;-).
Boston College: 4.5
(Nova, @USC, Army, @NMSU)
Seems about right. I'll take the OVER though. Pretty fair line. They will need to either win @Syracuse or @Maryland for the over to happen in my opinion.
Clemson: 10.5
(UGA, SCSU, Citadel, @SC)
The 10.5 seems a little ambitious, especially with Georgia (neutral site), Florida State, and @South Carolina on the schedule. I think that they will trip up somewhere on the road in conference even though they have a pretty easy slate other than FSU. I'll take the UNDER.
Duke: 5.5
(NCCU, @Memphis, Troy, Navy)
The non-conference slate is one of the easiest in the conference and I expect they will get at least 3 wins alone there. Then the Blue Devils need 3 more out of Pitt, @UVA, State and @Wake. I think the Devils will do it and get to 6 wins again but I don't feel confident either way. OVER
Florida State: 10.5
(Nevada, Bethune Cookman, Idaho, @UF)
Also an easy non-conference slate other than @Florida. I think it's safe to say that the win expectancy over those games is approaching 3.5 if not more. Getting to 9 wins shouldn't be a problem at all. That leaves @Clemson, Miami and @UF for two more wins. This is a tough one because I think the Noles beat Miami but may trip up @Clemson. Either way it will take a win over Florida to get to 11. I may get skewered for this but I'm going to say they trip up twice and go 10-2. UNDER
Georgia Tech: 8.5
(Elon, @BYU, Alabama A&M, Georgia)
Those are two easy game and two hard games for the non-conference schedule in Atlanta. They also have a pretty difficult conference schedule as well, traveling to Miami and Clemson, as well as hosting Virginia Tech. The 8.5 seems pretty high to me and I will confidently take the UNDER in this one.
Maryland: 6.5
(FIU, ODU, @UConn, WVU)
That non-conference schedule is a little harder than it appears at first glance and I think 2 wins there may be more likely than 3. The Terps also travel to FSU and VT, while they get Clemson in College Park. They will be improved from last year and I could see 6 wins, but I think 7 is a stretch. UNDER
Miami: 9.5
(FAU, Florida, Savannah State, @USF)
The Canes will likely get 3/4 here, and could get all four if they defeat the Gators in Miami. Not sure I see 10 wins on the schedule for Miami unless if they sweep the non-conference schedule. 9 wins is a good target and they could possibly sneak up to 10 if they play the right football at the right time. UNDER
N.C. State: 6.5
(LTU, Richmond, Central Michigan, ECU)
The Pack has a pretty absurdly easy schedule this year. 3 wins is the floor in the non-conference and it will come down to ECU as to whether or not they sweep the OOC schedule. They then get Syracuse and Maryland at home, while traveling to play Duke, Wake and Boston College. That alone should be worth another 3-4 wins. If they can defeat UNC in Raleigh or Wake in Winston 6.5 seems like a stupidly low number. I'll take the Pack with a very confident OVER, even though we don't know their QB yet.
UNC: 9.5
(@South Carolina, MTSU, ECU, ODU)
UNC should get 3 out of 4 here easily and possibly all four games as well. The Heels do travel to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Raleigh so they may slip up once or twice here. The good news is that UNC has a pretty easy home slate that should make for some reasonably easy wins. UNC and Miami are very similar to me. They both have good teams this year and a reasonable schedule, but I think 9 wins is more likely than exceeding the 9.5 number. I'll go UNDER for the Heels.
Pittsburgh: 5.5
(New Mexico, ODU, @Navy, Notre Dame)
A fair non-conference slate for Pitt with a couple of easier games, a middle-of-the-road game and then the Notre Dame game. I see around 2.5 wins here off the bat. The problem for the Panthers is that they have a pretty difficult schedule. All their easier games are on the road and all their harder games are at home. Miami, Notre Dame, UNC and FSU all visit Heinz Field for the first go around. I see maybe 1.5 wins there. Pitt then needs to get some wins out of UVA (also in Pittsburgh), @Duke, @GT, or @Cuse. The media doesn't really like Pitt's chances to get to make a bowl and I'm not that confident either, I think they wind up with 4 or 5 wins so I'm taking the UNDER
Syracuse: 4.5
(Penn State, @NW, Wagner, Tulane)
Those are two clear-cut wins and two clear-cut losses there to me. Syracuse then gets a "welcome to the ACC" greeting by playing Clemson, @State and @Georgia Tech in their first three weeks. If the Orange can get two home wins out of Wake, BC and Pitt then they are sitting pretty good to clear the 4.5 though. It may be hard to find that 5th win though out of @FSU, @UMD and the aforementioned first three games. I'm welcoming our Orange brethren to the ACC and sending them over with 5 wins too. OVER
Note: I really feel like the O/U for Syracuse and Pitt should be switched. I think they are roughly equivalent teams and Cuse has an easier schedule. I think they are around 5 wins though, may be dependent on who wins the game in Syracuse.
Virginia: 4.5
(BYU, Oregon, VMI, Ball State)
Rough way to start the year as the Wahoo's will almost certainly be 0-2 going into the VMI game. I assume they will pull to 2-2 OOC with a win over Ball State though. That leaves only 3 games to be won to cover the 4.5 number. @ Pitt, @ UMD and Duke should be feasibly winnable games, but with the other 4 games Georgia Tech, Clemson, @UNC and @Miami before their showdown with VT in Charlottesville, I'm not sure where that 5th game comes from. I feel comfortable with the UNDER here.
Virginia Tech: 9.5
(Alabama, WCU, @ECU, Marshall)
Should be good enough for a 3-1 non-conference slate to start things off for the Hokies. In the ACC VPI travels to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami and Virginia, another likely 2.5 wins there in all likelihood. Then UNC, Pitt, Duke and Maryland should produce 3.5 more wins, if not 4. That obviously puts us right at the 9.5 number. The Hokies have underachieved a little the past couple of years, but I think they bounce back from the first game of the year against Alabama and get to the 10 win mark en route to winning the Coastal. OVER
Wake Forest: 5.5
(Presbyterian, UL Monroe, @Army, @Vandy)
Went over this earlier today with the win probability post, but it's going to be really close. I wouldn't place anything on this in real life because I think it will come down to the Duke game on November 23rd, but I say the Deacs get to 6 by the skin of their teeth. OVER
As I said beforehand the totals may not be balanced and it turned out that they were not, with 6 OVER's and 8 UNDER's. I will admit that this was done without a ton of research about each team and a rather quick glance over each of the schedules.
I do admit, however, that the odds are pretty remarkably close for each team, as I calculated the amounts of win I saw on each schedule before I looked at the O/U for each team. I was amazed how close they were in nearly every single case.
Here is my breakdown in confidence points:
Strong confidence: State (over), Miami and UNC (under)
Moderate confidence: Boston College and Duke (over), Georgia Tech, Pitt and Maryland (under)
Little confidence: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Syracuse (over), Clemson (under)
No Confidence: Florida State and UVA (under)
There really does seem to be a lot of mediocre teams, a couple of really good teams, and then a few better-than-average teams. I'm sure there will be a team that only wins 3 games, but I only have one (UVA, sorry guys :-() under 4.5 wins. Hopefully that makes for an extremely interesting football season
I will happily discuss any of these with you all and I'm sure I will manage to frustrate or maybe even completely outrage somebody, so I'm ready to hear it! Hope you enjoyed!
