Our series of ACC Football Projections continue with UNC's top wide receiver target, Austin Proehl.
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Previous Projections
Let's first take a look at Proehl's numbers in his junior year.
| Name | Games | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Austin Proehl | 13 | 43 | 597 | 3 |
Now, let's take a look at some players who have had comparable junior seasons.
| Name | Season | Games | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Canaan Severin | 2015 | 12 | 42 | 578 | 5 |
| Jamari Staples | 2016 | 9 | 37 | 638 | 3 |
| James Quick | 2016 | 10 | 39 | 624 | 5 |
| Jesus Wilson | 2016 | 13 | 58 | 622 | 3 |
| Rodney Smith | 2012 | 13 | 36 | 560 | 4 |
How did those same players perform in their respective senior seasons?
| Name | Season | Games | Att | Yds | TD |
| Canaan Severin | 2016 | 12 | 53 | 747 | 8 |
| Jamari Staples | 2017 | 11 | 36 | 615 | 2 |
| James Quick | 2017 | 12 | 45 | 769 | 6 |
| Jesus Wilson | 2017 | 7 | 30 | 390 | 1 |
| Rodney Smith | 2013 | 13 | 35 | 483 | 3 |
Now, let's compare their per game numbers from their junior to senior season and see the percentage change.
| Name | Catches | Yds | TD | |
| Canaan Severin | 20.8% | 22.6% | 37.5% | |
| Jamari Staples | -25.6% | -26.8% | -83.3% | |
| James Quick | -4% | 2.6% | 0 | |
| Jesus Wilson | -4.1% | 14.1% | -61.5% | |
| Rodney Smith | -2.9% | -15.9% | -33.3% | |
Trends
- The first thing that jumps out is that the production across the board stayed relatively the same. A few at higher numbers, a few lower.
- The yards per catch seems to stay relatively the same from season to season as well.
- TD production may take a step back, perhaps not too surprising as a highly productive senior wide receiver is likely to see a lot of attention in the red zone.
Projection
| Name | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Austin Proehl | 49.45 | 686.55 | 2.55 |
- Based on the trends I kept the percentage change for catches and yards the same.
- I went with a 15% increase for both catches and yards, very similar to what Canaan Severin did as their numbers were nearly identical in their junior seasons.
- Like we saw with his comps, I gave Proehl a 15% reduction in TDs as its likely he'll get more attention in the red zone.
Would you like to see a projection done for another returning ACC skill player? Make your request known by tweeting to me @scacchoops.
