I’m more convinced than ever that ESPN will extend its media rights deal with ESPN. In fact, I think it is just about a lock certainty. Sure anything can happen in today’s modern landscape, so I never say never, but I consider it highly highly unlikely.
Here’s why…
1. The ACC is viable until it isn’t
No matter what you think of the outcome of the ongoing litigation between Clemson/FSU and the ACC, the conference isn’t going without a media rights deal as one of the P4 conferences which it currently is. It’s just not – and ESPN isn’t going to hand over all the content of the ACC to another network or streaming service and be left with only the SEC, a piece of the Big 12, and G5 schools. If the GOR is invalidated, and a mass exodus occurs that’s a different story, but the ACC is viable until it isn’t.
2. The ACC Network
I’ve said it time and time again, if you can’t reasonably explain how ESPN and ACC are going decouple themselves from a joint business venture that is a massive money maker, then you have no idea what you’re talking about. As I wrote in May, it’s the wildcard in the agreement few talk about.
The clearest indicator that I know a realignment observer doesn’t know what they are talking about is if they say the ACC Network doesn’t make money. Everything they say after that is totally disregarded as nonsense by me. Many people say it too, so you can eliminate them all as accurate sources of information.
Not extending creates an extra layer of complication media maneuvering, between another entity and the ACC Network. I suppose it could be managed somehow, but that sure seems to be counterproductive to a simple extension.
3. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips says it’s not going away as written in July. He’s said it multiple times too.
Phillips certainly is not prone to exaggeration. He’s understated to a fault, so for him to say the partnership is not going away as he did a few weeks ago, then as far as I’m concerned this is a closed topic until further (legit source) notice. I mean how much clearer can you be? Could you imagine the push back Phillips would deal with, if something fell through with the deal?
4. TV Ratings, and TV Slots
In the last 10 days,
Georgia Tech vs FSU had the best Week 0 ratings since 2019 – 5 Million viewers
Georgia vs Clemson Most watched Week 1 Noon game on record – 7.9 Million views
Miami vs Florida Most watched late afternoon game since 2017 – 6.6 Million views
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M ABC’s most streamed game ever – 8.2 Million views
Even if you split hairs on the opponent and time slot which certainly matters, here is where it is relevant to the agreement. ACC programs have shown a willingness to put a conference game in Dublin in Week 0. Clemson and Miami agreed to schedule quality opponents, while the Big 12 played 16 games and 11 were against FCS opponents. Those games were largely relegated to ESPN+ or elsewhere. ESPN wants quality matchups in prime slots.
Some conferences are more willing to play quality OOC opponents than others.
There’s the Labor Day night game between FSU and BC, that will show pretty well I’m sure.
That counts, just look at the ratings the exposure achieved for the SEC, ACC, and Notre Dame.
Notre Dame is another story itself.
Extending the ACC deal means extending the Notre Dame scheduling agreement with the ACC. That means more Notre Dame for ESPN.
5. It’s a really good deal for ESPN
The primary base media deal between ESPN and the ACC really favors ESPN, so much so – that’s why lawsuits are going. Why would ESPN voluntarily end a deal where they are currently paying in the 20-23 Million range per school? There’s not a single credible media rights analyst who thinks ESPN isn’t getting the better end of this deal.
Who ends business deals that are heavily in their favor?
