The Blue Devils will face a familiar foe in their Sweet 16 matchup against the 8th seeded Arizona Wildcats. Thursday will be the 11th straight meeting between Duke and Arizona, with both teams ranked in the top-25. Duke is 1-1 against Arizona in the NCAA Tournament. Prior to Duke’s 69-55 road win over Arizona on Nov. 22, 2024, the Wildcats won three straight in the series, dating back to a 93-77 victory in the 2011 NCAA Tournament regional semifinal in Anaheim, California. Duke defeated Arizona, 82-72, in the 2001 national championship game in Minneapolis.
Arizona Wildcats
Tommy Lloyd is in his fourth season as head coach after serving as an assistant coach at Gonzaga for 22 seasons. Lloyd has his team at 24-12 overall and finished at 14-6 in the Big 12, good for 3rd. The Wildcats rank 11th in the nation in rebounds per game (40.1) and 12th in rebounding margin (+7.5). Arizona tops the Big 12 and is 17th in the country in scoring offense with 82.2 points per contest.
Caleb Love, a First Team All-Big 12 honoree, leads Arizona in scoring (16.8 ppg) and is second in assists (3.5 apg). Love played 101 games in three seasons at North Carolina before transferring to Arizona for the 2023-24 campaign. The Wildcats boast 2 other double figure scorers in Jaden Bradley at 12 points per game, Bradley leads the team in assists per game at 3.7. KJ Lewis ranks 3rd on the team in scoring at 10.9 points per game.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke owns the second-highest net rating (39.00) in the history of KenPom (since 1996-97 season). Only the 1998-99 Duke Blue Devils have achieved a higher net rating (43.01). The Blue Devils have won 29 of their last 30 games since late November, including the nation’s second-longest current win streak at 13 consecutive victories. Duke leads the nation in scoring margin (+21.5) and ranks third in the country in assist to-turnover ratio (+1.82), fourth in field goal percentage defense (.383), fifth in effective field goal percentage (.579), sixth in scoring defense (61.7), eighth in field goal percentage (.492), eighth in turnovers per game (9.3), 11th in rebound margin (+7.7), 12th in scoring offense (83.2), 16th in three-point percentage (.381), 18th in three-pointers per game (10.3), 19th in assists per game (16.9), 24th in three-point percentage defense (.305) and 30th in rebounds per game (38.5) – all top marks in the ACC. Duke leads the ACC in scoring offense (83.2) and scoring defense (61.7), and could become the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in both categories. The Blue Devils are the only team in the country ranked among the top-four in both offensive (1st) and defensive (4th) adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom. Duke is the only Division I team to score 80 points or more per game (83.2) and hold its opponents to fewer than 62 points per game (61.7).
Cooper Flagg, who turned 18 years old on Dec. 21, ranks among the ACC’s top-10 in four of five major statistical categories – scoring (3rd), rebounding (9th), assists (8th) and blocked shots (8th), and is 11th in steals. Flagg leads a trio of double figure scorers for Duke, with Kon Knueppel within 4 points of Flagg at 14.1 points per game and just under 4 rebounds. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor rounds out the double figure scorers at 12.5 per game, Proctor made a career-high seven three-pointers versus Baylor and is shooting 19-of-30 (.633) from distance in the last three games.
Final Thoughts
Besides wins and losses not a lot separate these 2 teams statistically. Duke shoots better from 3 but as we know in the NCAA Tournament, not much of that matters honestly. The games usually come down to who can make the most plays and for the Blue Devils the formula has been the same for the majority of the year. Do not give the opponents easy looks at the basket via turnovers or bad shots, be efficient on the offensive end and most importantly defend. We obviously know Caleb Love can be a weapon for whatever team he plays for, Duke’s job is to keep that weapon firing blanks ie bad shots. The bigger worry for me aside from Caleb Love going nuclear is Jaden Bradley, who for me is their best player, while he’s not a great 3 point shooter he does shoot over 50% from within the arc and is a great set up man for Tommy Lloyd’s team. Conventional wisdom says to pack the paint but I would play straight up defense because as we know, anyone can get hot especially at this time of the year, extra games, extra reps the basket just looks bigger for some guys at this time of the year. I don’t believe Arizona has the horses to stop what Duke does offensively so if Duke is efficient they should win, if they turn the ball over and give up fast break points against a defense that isn’t set – then we will have issues.
