So you're saying there's a chance!
Ken Pomeroy has released his full log5 analysis detailing the probabilities for teams to reach the various rounds of the NCAA Tournament. You can look at all the regions and the full list here.
This is what the West Region looks like.
Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2W Arizona 97.7 81.2 65.8 42.1 21.7 13.9 7 1W Wisconsin 95.6 81.8 64.2 36.4 17.4 10.5 10 4W North Carolina 79.4 54.5 19.0 6.7 1.9 0.7 142 3W Baylor 77.2 49.4 15.3 5.9 1.7 0.6 159 10W Ohio St. 55.8 11.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 842 5W Arkansas 73.3 31.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1002 6W Xavier 55.4 24.8 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.09 1095 7W VCU 44.2 7.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.04 2267 9W Oklahoma St. 52.8 9.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.03 3084 11W BYU 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.03 3131 8W Oregon 47.2 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 5093 11W Mississippi 17.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 0.04 0.008 11837 14W Georgia St. 22.8 7.9 1.0 0.18 0.02 0.003 29548 13W Harvard 20.6 7.7 1.1 0.15 0.02 0.002 43616 12W Wofford 26.7 6.1 0.7 0.09 0.008 0.0009 110472 16W C. Carolina 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.01 0.0007 <.0001 1966903 15W Texas Southern 2.3 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 44005517
UNC has a 1 in 142 chance of winning the title. KenPom is putting UNC's probability of making the Sweet Sixteen at 54% which is a perfectly reasonable win probability for the Tar Heels facing the #29 team in KenPom on a neutral floor. After that the numbers take a dip with UNC having just a 19% chance of making the Elite Eight and 6.7% of getting to Indianapolis. Given UNC's seeding and what we know, anything beyond the Sweet Sixteen will be beating the odds. Of course UNC did just that in Greensboro though the Heels were actually favored to beat Notre Dame and didn't.
Obviously Kentucky is the odds on favorite to win. The Wildcats has a 33% chance to taking the title. Kentucky is over 60% to advance to each round until the Final Four when the Wildcats have just a 46.1% chance of making the title game.
If you are wondering which team has the worst shot at winning the NCAA Tournament it is Hamption which has just a 0.3% chance of winning in the first round. Hamption's odds of winning the title? 1 in 932,647,504. No one is remotely that far out but that is probably because Hampton is in Kentucky's region and even if the Pirates get past Manhattan in the play-in game, it has no chance to beat the Wildcats.
