Via WTVD's Mark Armstrong on Twitter who proposes three interesting over/unders for UNC football this season.
North Carolina: Elijah Hood -- 1049.5 yds rushing Marquise W -- 31.5 Total TDs UNC Defense -- 31.5 PPG
— Mark Armstrong (@ArmstrongABC11) August 25, 2015
My gut feeling on these is under, over and OVER.
Elijah Hood 1049.5 yards rushing
Can Hood rush for that many yards? Sure. Will he in the context of Larry Fedora's offense with Marquise Williams? Probably not. One issue is Fedora's penchant for spreading the carries around. UNC has T.J. Logan, Romar Morris, Elijah Hood, Khris Francis and freshman Ty'Son Williams who could potentially see the field. In all likelihood that settles on three players. Hood and Logan will be two of them. There is also the offensive line which will need to play well and stay healthy.
The biggest factor is Marquise Williams who often ends up carrying the ball more often than he probably should. His rushing output will cut into what UNC can get from the traditional backs. If that happens, no one back is going to have a big rushing season and taking the over on the next one is a no brainer.
Marquise Williams 31.5 total touchdowns.
It's easy to take the over here. Williams had 35 touchdowns last season, 21 in the air, 13 on the ground and caught a touchdown pass at Notre Dame. If Williams continues to be a force running the ball plus he makes the most of his numerous receiving weapons, 31.5 shouldn't be an issue. The offense will need to be more consistent but given the experience that should be the case.
The issue is if the running backs actually end up doing a lion's share of the work in the rushing attack negating Williams as a runner. Even then, Williams is a great option near the goal line and if the passing attack is clicking, he should exceed his career high of 21 passing touchdowns. In short, 31.5 seems like a very achievable mark.
Defense points per game allowed 31.5.
UNC gave up over 39 points per game last season. UNC held just four opponents under 30 points last season with Liberty scoring 29, San Diego State and hapless UVa at 27. Duke only scored 20 in what was easily the only solid defensive game of the season.
For UNC to grab the under on 31.5 it would mean improving by nine points per game from one season to the next. That doesn't seem likely or more aptly put no one in their right mind can have confidence in that happening given the horrors we witnessed a year ago. As bad as last season went, improving by a touchdown per game on defense would be a massive step in the right direction and might very well be worth a win or two. However, seeing is believing and until UNC is seen stopping another football team from scoring on a consistent basis, pessimism rules the day.
