I've been tasked with the near impossible in terms of the ACC Football Projections series that I've been doing this week. Today's player is NC State's Jaylen Samuels, whom the ACC recently made up a new position for to honor on the All-ACC teams. When considering that my system looks for comparable players to assist with projections, this would seem to be a difficult task.
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Previous Projections
For Samuels, we'll consider both his ability to run the ball as well as his receiving capabilities separately. First up, the run game.
Rushing
Samuels run game numbers took a dip in his junior season, let's take a look.
| Name | Games | Att | Yds | TD |
| Jaylen Samuels | 11 | 33 | 189 | 6 |
Now, here are a handful of comparable players with similar junior seasons.
| Name | Season | Games | Att | Yds | TD |
| D.J. Howard | 2014 | 11 | 57 | 213 | 2 |
| Isiah Willis | 2016 | 10 | 32 | 169 | 1 |
| Marcus Allen | 2016 | 8 | 35 | 166 | 2 |
| Tim Byerly | 2015 | 6 | 45 | 204 | 7 |
Here's how the same players performed in their respective senior season.
| Name | Season | Games | Att | Yds | TD |
| D.J. Howard | 2015 | 10 | 50 | 195 | 3 |
| Isiah Willis | 2017 | 8 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Marcus Allen | 2017 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Tim Byerly | 2016 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
Not a great sample, in most cases guys saw fewer opportunities in their senior season. Let's take a look at the percentage change.
| Name | Att | Yds | TD | |
| D.J. Howard | -3.6% | 0.7% | 39.4% | |
| Isiah Willis | -132.7% | -69% | 0 | |
| Marcus Allen | -75% | -76.6% | 0 | |
| Tim Byerly | -7.1% | 19.0% | -16.7% | |
Trends
- Note that the trends compare per game numbers, so Byerly only playing 1 game makes his numbers look less severe than you might imagine.
- Howard was the only player to stay at the same level of production
- Willis and Allen took a significant step back.
- I told you this was going to be difficult.
Receiving
Let's take a look at how Jaylen Samules fared in the passing game.
| Name | Games | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Jaylen Samuels | 13 | 55 | 565 | 7 |
Now, what players were decent comps with similar junior seasons?
| Name | Season | Games | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Kevin Dorsey | 2012 | 9 | 42 | 548 | 3 |
| Jordan Leggett | 2016 | 15 | 40 | 525 | 8 |
| Perry Jones | 2012 | 11 | 48 | 506 | 3 |
| Braxton Deaver | 2014 | 13 | 40 | 484 | 4 |
| Adam Humphries | 2014 | 11 | 41 | 483 | 2 |
| Quinshad Davis | 2015 | 12 | 41 | 470 | 6 |
Now, how did the same players perform in their senior season?
| Name | Season | Games | Catches | Yds | TD |
| Kevin Dorsey | 2013 | 11 | 18 | 311 | 4 |
| Jordan Leggett | 2017 | 13 | 46 | 736 | 7 |
| Perry Jones | 2013 | 12 | 49 | 397 | 0 |
| Braxton Deaver | 2016 | 9 | 21 | 183 | 2 |
| Adam Humphries | 2015 | 13 | 30 | 204 | 0 |
| Quinshad Davis | 2016 | 14 | 55 | 638 | 4 |
Finally, what percentage change do we see from their junior to senior season?
| Name | Catches | Yds | TD | |
| Kevin Dorsey | -185.2% | -115.4% | 8.3% | |
| Jordan Leggett | 24.6% | 38.2% | 0.9% | |
| Perry Jones | -6.9% | -39.0% | 0 | |
| Braxton Deaver | -31.9% | -83.1% | -38.5% | |
| Adam Humphries | -61.5% | -179.8% | 0 | |
| Quinshad Davis | 13.0% | 14.1% | -75% | |
Trends
- Similar to running the ball, it seems as though it isn't uncommon to see a senior's numbers take a step back.
- Only Jordan Leggett and Quinshad Davis saw their numbers increase.
- Kevin Dorsey, Adam Humphries, and Braxton Deaver took a big step back.
Projections
| Name | Stat | Att/Catch | Yds | TD |
| Jaylen Samuels | Rec | 49.5 | 508.5 | 6.3 |
| Jaylen Samuels | Rush | 36.3 | 207.9 | 6.6 |
- I gave Samuels a 10% increase across the board running the ball. The theory is that despite comps, NC State will want to get the ball in Samuels hands as much as possible and this is a controlled way to do so.
- As for receiving, I went with a 10% reduction across the board. Similar to other wide receivers in their senior season, I'd expect Samuels numbers to take a step back when it comes to receptions. It's worth noting that Samuels number from his sophomore to junior season also took a step back.
Thanks to @Evan_Law for the request on Jaylen Samuels. If you'd like to see a projection done for an ACC football returning skill player, make a request via twitter to me @scacchoops.
