The Duke Blue Devils face off against the Baylor Bears in Raleigh in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, facing former Blue Devil Jeremy Roach.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears finished with a 10-10 record in the Big 12 this season, good for 7th in the league. They have an overall record of 20-14 so far this season, including a 13-3 record at home. The Bears are 35th in the country in offensively rebounding.
Senior big and former ACC player Norchad Omier leads the Bears in scoring and rebounding at 15.8 and 10.9 respectively. Omier ranks fourth in the nation and leads the Big 12 with 22 double-doubles this season. Freshmen VJ Edgecombe is right behind Omier at 15 points per game, he also pulls down 5.6 rebounds and dishes 3.3 assists per game. Freshman Robert Wright leads the Bears in assists at 4.3 per game to go along with his 11.5 points per contest. Former Blue Devils Jeremy Roach is averaging 10.1 points per game off the bench for Scott Drew’s team in this his final year of eligibility.
The Bears upset the 8th seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament 75-72, led by 4 players in double figures, led by Robert Wright III’s 19 points.
Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils so far on the year have a record of 32-3, the most under Jon Scheyer. Duke’s ACC record was 19-1, good enough to win the regular season, which they followed up with an ACC Tournament Championship.
Duke owns the second-highest net rating (38.30) in the history of KenPom (since 1996-97 season). Only the 1998-99 Duke Blue Devils have achieved a higher net rating (43.01). The Blue Devils have won 28 of their last 29 games since late November, including the nation’s second-longest current win streak at 12 consecutive victories. They also lead the nation in scoring margin (+21.5) and ranks fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio (+1.80), fifth in effective field goal percentage (.575), fifth in field goal percentage defense (.384), sixth in scoring defense (61.5), 10th in rebound margin (+8.0), 11th in turnovers per game (9.4), 12th in scoring offense (83.0), 14th in field goal percentage (.488), 19th in assists per game (16.9), 20th in three-point percentage (.377), 21st in three-pointers per game (10.2) and 24th in rebounds per game (38.8) – all top marks in the ACC. Jon Scheyer’s team leads the ACC in scoring offense (83.0) and scoring defense (61.5), and could become the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in both categories. Duke is the only team in the country ranked among the top-three in both offensive (1st) and defensive (3rd) raw efficiency, according to KenPom. Duke is the only Division I team to score 80 points or more per game (83.0) and hold its opponents to fewer than 62 points per game (61.5).
The Blue Devils are led in scoring by 3 double figure scorers. Cooper Flagg leads the Blue Devils in scoring at 18.7, rebounding at 7.5 per game and assists at 4.1 per contest. Freshman Kon Knueppel checks in at second in scoring at 14.1 points per game and 2.7 assists. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor scores the basketball at a 12.2 point per game clip to go along with his 2.2 assists. Proctor has made a career-high six three-pointers in each of the last two games (Louisville, Mount St. Mary’s), shooting 12-of-22 (.545) from distance.
On Friday, Duke distributed 21 assists with just two turnovers, a 10.5 assist-turnover ratio, which is the best ratio in program history. The Blue Devils won their first round game against Mount St. Mary’s in Raleigh, 93-49, led by junior Tyrese Proctors 19 points and 5 assists.
Final Thoughts
A lot is being made of Duke having a decided edge in size against the Baylor Bears, and while that is true and should pay some dividends for the Blue Devils. Baylor has had to play at a size deficit for the majority of their games and can coach around it, I don’t foresee them being worried about it. I worry about their backcourt speed more than most, their ability to break down defenses and get to the paint could be an issue for the Blue Devils if they can’t stay in front of their shifty guards. Robert Wright is as shifty as it gets and gets to the rim easily, is a good finisher, and he’s an excellent set-up man. VJ Edgecombe is the definition of a freak athlete who can put his stamp on the game on either end of the floor, he’s a blur on the court and can take off from anywhere on the court and put defenders on a poster. He has good hands on defense and creates havoc there, setting up fast break opportunities. I expect him to be super aggressive against Duke.
The Blue Devils need to do the things they did to get here, starting with taking care of the basketball. That doesn’t just mean in terms of not turning the ball over, it also means taking shots that don’t put your defense in perilous situations. Making Baylor play against a set defense is an advantage for Duke. Good offense is the first line of defense. Crisp ball movement and good screening action is a good way to make Baylor’s defense work, they aren’t a super deep team and Duke should be able to wear them out with good possessions.
