Heading into the 2015-16 season, the Duke Blue Devils are a team full of energetic, youthful, explosive athletes bearing little resemblance to the 2014-15 title-winning roster. Many questions surround the current squad, led as always by Mike Krzyzewski. But one thing is certain; when the ball is tipped on Friday, November 13, Duke will not face Sienna as the defending champions. As Coach K would say, last year is done, and “can no longer be won, lost, defended or surrendered.”
Gone (Graduation):
PG Quinn Cook
SG Sean Kelly
Gone (NBA Early-Entry):
C Jahlil Okafor (#3, Los Angeles Lakers)
SF/PF Justise Winslow (#10, Miami Heat)
PG Tyus Jones (#24, Minnesota Timberwolves, via Cleveland Cavaliers)
Returning:
#21 PF Amile Jefferson, 6-9, 225 senior (*Captain)
#40 C Marshall Plumlee, 7-0, 250 redshirt senior (*Captain)
#13 SF/SG Matt Jones, 6-5, 200 junior (*Captain)
SG Nick Pagliuca, junior, 6-3, 195 (walk-on, 23 minutes AND COUNTING!)
#3 SG Grayson Allen, sophomore, 6-5, 205
#34 C/PF Sean Obi, sophomore (transfer), 6-9, 250
Incoming Freshmen Class Ranked #1 in the Nation (Rankings via RSCIhoops.com)
PF/SF Brandon Ingram, 6-9, 190 (#4 recruit)
#12 PG Derryck Thornton, 6-2, 175 (#13 recruit)
#2 PF Chase Jeter, 6-10, 240 (#14 recruit)
#5 SG/SF Luke Kennard, 6-5, 180 (#21 recruit)
#30 C Antonio Vrankovic (7-0, 270)
#50 SF/PF Justin Robinson (6-8, 190) (preferred walk-on)
#53 SG Brennan Besser (6-5, 180) (walk-on)
Coaches:
Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski
Associate Head Coach: Jeff Capel
Assistant Coach: Nate James
Assistant Coach: Jon Scheyer
Duke loses its top four scorers as well as a large percentage of rebounding and assists from last year, and will count on contributions as a whole rather than making any one player the centerpiece, as was the case with star big man Jahlil Okafor.
Defense First
Like Bruce Springsteen, the Blue Devils are born to run, but in order to play uptempo, priority number one will be extended, pressuring defense. Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, and Jahlil Okafor did not have the footspeed to make up for mistakes last year, so while Justise Winslow and Matt Jones were stalwarts on the defensive end, they couldn’t gamble often for fear of leaving an open path to the basket. Risk-taking will be a common theme this season, the reason being length. Coach K’s squad is a long-limbed team, and it all starts with Brandon Ingram. 6-9 with a 7-3 wingspan, shooting or passing over Ingram is the equivalent to a moving broom. Though not the fleetest of foot, he possesses long strides and natural instincts which make his length all the more deadly. Just a step or two is all it takes to make up ground and step into the passing lane or swat away a shot by a surprised opponent. Ingram may roam as a free safety of course like Winslow, or could actually play at the top of a zone (yes, there could be more zone this season, much more than last year) to disrupt the offensive and prevent sets from being developed. Ingram gets lost at times, taking his eye off of his own man, and his defensive rotations will improve as the season moves along
Others:
Many, including Coach K, mention how the physicality of defending college point guards will be a challenge for Derryck Thornton, but he does a great job of moving his feet and isn’t afraid to get dirty for loose balls. He feeds off of his own defensive energy, which translates to the team. Must avoid reaching, because the more he reaches, the more the man he is guarding will teach.
Matt Jones is Duke’s best on-ball defender, and his switch to the starting lineup late in last year’s regular season (starting at Virginia Tech but truly taking affect versus Syracuse) was when Duke took on a new identity, helping the team use a suffocating defense to improve from number 57 entering the NCAA Tournament all the way to number 12 by the end. His job against ultra-athletic 6-9 Sam Dekker in the championship game was a big factor in Duke’s victory against Wisconsin. Jones will direct traffic in the backcourt, which will be a big help to Thornton.
Defense was a major weakness for Grayson Allen entering his college career, but his effort is constant, and the improvement has been evident. It is no longer necessary for his teammates to cheat over, expecting his man to blow by, but it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to longer periods of time on the court against the best shooting guards in the country. It can be a positive or negative the way Allen will sometimes cheat in transition if the ball is loose, but the juice is worth the squeeze when he gets free for a breakaway.
Amile Jefferson is the best defensive communicator, and will be a vital early-season cog for calling out rotations, mismatches, and rebounds. When Amile went out with an injured ankle against a smaller Livingstone team, the Blue Bears grabbed nearly 40% of their missed shots, a number which quite certainly wouldn’t have been garnered with Jefferson in tow. He will be in Ingram’s ear with instructions on switches, helping to limit overthinking from Duke’s talented freshman.
Marshall Plumlee looks much more confident in where to be during defensive possessions. Needs to continue to not leak out, which leaves the rim exposed. Duke needs Plumlee on the court for major minutes, especially early in the year, so must play smart and avoid silly fouls.
Luke Kennard has a ton of confidence in his footwork, and while he is not slow of foot, it is tough to label him a lockdown defender. But he was shockingly decisive in his ability to stay step for step with ball handlers during the two exhibition games. Along with every other part of his game, his success is owed to anticipation. He has an ability to feel out his opponent and get a read on his man’s weight transfer, sliding in to be in position before the next dribble even comes. Very impressive, especially against point guards, but it was also defending mismatched opponents.
Chase Jeter’s length and energy will equal out to two things: He will always play hard, and he will reach whatever maximum possibility for his production at this point in his career. He is excellent in transitioning from defense to offense, and his athleticism will equal out to advantages on the fast break. It will be interesting to see how he deals with physicality as the season wears on. In high school, he backed down at times from the challenge. Extremely thin, he will go up against some grown men at power forward. How will he deal with the challenge?
Sean Obi could be the Blue Devils’secret weapon. While Duke will try and outrun opponents most games, there will be others (and periods of time in many more) when Obi is called upon to showcase his brute force. Though not an athlete, he is a mac truck, and in the December 19th matchup taking on Utah in New York City, Obi will most definitely be called upon to face talented big man Jacob Poeltl.
Press
Duke at times used a three-quarters court press last season, not to force turnovers as much as knock time off from the shot clock and cause the opponent to begin their offensive sets later than planned. The shot clock is now 30 seconds this season, five seconds shorter, so Coach K may want to use even more of this type of press. While a full-court press may be a bit too risky early in the year considering the youngsters are still getting used to basic rotations in half-court, by the time the ACC schedule hits, Duke's length would make the full-court quite a weapon.
Transition
On defense, Duke has make-up speed unlike last year, but can’t rely on it. It is vital that rotations are clean when getting back on defense.
On offense, if Duke uses their defense to create turnovers and get up and down in transition, the 2015-16 Blue Devils will be a heck of a fun team to watch. Derryck Thornton is at his best in space and has no trouble hitting cutters for perfect dime passes at the rim. With momentum heading towards the hoop, he is also an excellent finisher. Ingram should create many and-one opportunities running the floor, and both Plumlee and Jeter are impressive athletes on the fast break.
…And then there’s Grayson Allen, the human lightning bolt…
Halfcourt Offense
No matter how much Duke wants to run, a fluid halfcourt offense needs to be developed. At the start of the year, Grayson Allen might be the sole member of the team who can be counted on at all times to be able to create a shot when necessary, but others will improve over time. Ingram’s isolation offense is raw, but if he can start forcing defenders to respect his outside shot, it will allow more freedom to use his impressive ball-handling and versatile game to create. Matt Jones showed hints of an improved offensive ability. He can hit outside shots, but if defenses are forced to respect his drive, Duke becomes much more lethal. Marshall Plumlee has generated excitement based on his left-handed baby hook shots in the two exhibition games, but he is 7-0, and was shooting against players around 6-7. Plumlee should be able to be counted on for offensive rebounds and passing. Second-chance opportunities are a killer for defenses, and many still remember Brian Zoubek’s impact using offensive rebound kick-outs for three-pointers in 2010. Thornton has yet to showcase a deadly floater and mid-range elbow jumper that are both rare. I might actually say that Thornton’s floater is the best I’ve ever see from a Duke player, but he has yet to use it wearing a Duke uniform, so it’s wait and see for now. Jeter and Obi will mostly contribute putbacks and second-chance opportunities, though Jeter’s footwork is off the charts, which he will potentially showcase in the coming years. There will be glimpses this season. Though Grayson Allen is the one player mentioned who can always be counted on to create, it would not surprise to quickly see Kennard earn complete trust with the ball in his hands and the shot clock winding down. Luke can create for himself or for others, using his “old man at the YMCA” skill set.”
How I Would Attack/Defend Duke
Zone, zone, and more zone. Yes, Duke has shooters, but if I’m the opposing coach, I’ve scouted Duke and know that the point guard position is a fluid situation right now, and while Grayson Allen and Matt Jones can handle the duties of the position while Derryck Thornton adjusts, I want to test their decision making. After all, the more Allen runs the point, the more it takes away from his free flowing game. If man to man, I bully Ingram. I want to wear him down and take him out of his comfort zone. On offense, I pray that my team contains a bruising big man. If so, I dump it down over and over, testing the athletic but not very physical front line of Duke. I could also spread Duke out with shooters, using a 4-out, 1-in approach (this is what coach John Calipari had made famous at Kentucky) to avoid the help defense. Forcing Duke to guard one on one in space is intriguing. I go right at Derryck Thornton and challenge the youngster. I want to break his confidence early in the game and see how fragile his mindset may or may not be. And lastly, I bully Brandon Ingram. I set up specific plays to have Ingram guarding my big man on offense and go right into him.
So basically, Brandon Ingram better eat his Wheaties before each game this season.
Big Brother/Little Brother Relationships
The Quinn Cook/Tyus Jones relationship was a special one. Is there anything that can possibly match that this season? The short answer is no. But there are three big brother/little brother relationships that are already evident.
Amile Jefferson-Brandon Ingram: Jefferson was hurt in Duke’s second exhibition game against Livingstone, but during the first contest against Florida Southern, he was constantly in Ingram’s ear instructing, motivating and encouraging. Ingram has ability Amile can only dream of, but right now, Ingram would be smart to listen to every word Jefferson speaks. Senior leadership cannot be quantified, and Amile will provide it in spades.
Marshall Plumlee-Chase Jeter: These two might have the two biggest personalities on the team as well, and seem to truly enjoy each other’s company. Their energy is infectious, and this big brother-little brother comparison is the only one in which the styles of play are similar. Plumlee will set a great tone for Jeter in both his vocal leadership and by example.
Matt Jones-Derryck Thornton: One person close to the situation told me that Matt could be for Derryck what Quinn was for Tyus. That is a big statement, but shows the impact Jones could have on a young player thirsting for knowledge and ways to help the team. Jones could have transferred after a tough freshman year, but stayed the course. He knows the pressure of being at Duke with high expectations, and will provide a shoulder for Derryck to lean on.
Will In-Game Direction Come from the Sideline or on the Court?
Mike Krzyzewski said that besides rare examples (including the obvious “zone games” against Louisville and Pittsburgh) the players ran the ship during games last season. There is no Quinn Cook this year, though, who was in essence another head coach for Duke on the floor. Motion offense allows for a ton of freedom, but with ten seconds left in the shot clock and the sets are bogged down, what happens? Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson will control the defensive assignments.
Point Guard
Duke basketball under Coach K has historically only been as successful as the point guard running the show. So what happens when a freshman is put in charge? History tells us that things work out for the best when a new point guard plays in the same backcourt with an experienced point guard. Chris Duhon was matched with Jason Williams, Kyrie Irving with Nolan Smith, and of course Tyus Jones with Quinn Cook. Greg Paulus was paired with shooting guard J.J. Redick and Quinn Cook with Austin Rivers and Seth Curry. The later two struggled at points during their careers, and while no blame should be given to the shooting guards they started with, it is something to think about. Derryck Thornton does not have another point guard, and Coach K has already nipped the “controversy” in the bud by declaring the position fluid, saying Matt Jones and Grayson Allen will share time at the head of the snake. In the exhibition games, even when Thornton was playing, he many times would be located off the ball while others handled at the top of the key. I expect Luke Kennard to handle the point guard duties with the second unit, and will be a sort of blankie (yeah, I said it) for Coach K to use as comfort when point guard duties go south at moments. It would not be surprising to see Kennard actually spend the most time running point during the season.
Go-To Player
When is the last time Duke has gone into a season without a go-to alpha dog? Probably 2010, but that team had experience at all three options in Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. So this season, when there’s ten seconds left in the shot clock, who makes the play? Brandon Ingram is the most talented player on the team, but he is raw and still learning. By the latter portions of the ACC schedule, he could be the man, though I think the unfair Kevin Durant comparisons have set expectations a bit high for this season. Grayson Allen has the mentality to take control in late-game situations, already proven against Wisconsin, but opponents didn’t have much of a scouting report since he hadn’t played much during the regular season. Now they do, and big minutes during each game could wear on him. Will it impact late-game decisions? It is tough to know, but while the percentages favor Allen, there’s something about Luke Kennard …
Leader
Intangibles are typically everything that statistics cannot measure. And as was mentioned earlier, Matt Jones has those in spades. Early in the season, Amile Jefferson’s voice will be crucial for instructions and advice and direction. But Matt Jones is the most irreplaceable player on Duke’s roster, whether he shoots 10 for 10 or 0 for 10. In order for Duke to achieve at their highest potential, Matt Jones has to become the heart and soul of the team. The evolution will be fun to watch.
Lineup/Player Goals
Like many parts of this season’s Duke team, the lineups will shift game to game fluidly, depending on matchups and individual player progress. If Duke is to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, though, the starters will be:
PG: Thornton
SG: Allen
SF: Jones
PF: Ingram
C: Plumlee
Kennard will play a ton of minutes no matter what, so he could very well start at point guard, but Thornton is the only true point on the roster, so it would benefit Duke the most for him to be able to handle duties as time goes on, but it is easy to forget the young man arrived at Duke later than most. He was taking classes for much of the summer to complete his high school degree. It will be a process for Thornton, and patience is required. He could provide a great spark off the bench as well if called upon. Ingram at 190 pounds is worrisome against a player like Brice Johnson of North Carolina or Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress of Kentucky, all 230 pound power forwards. If Ingram can handle himself at power forward for some games and periods of time during others, Duke will greatly benefit. Grayson Allen will learn to pick and choose his spots, creating for teammates as well as himself and not bulling in to the defense as he did last year when playing limited minutes with no worries about picking up fouls. Duke needs Allen on the court this year. He must play smart. I worry about him packing on so much muscle during the offseason. Grayson is still so young and he did so in a very short period of time. That can lead to injuries, so health is priority number one. There will be an article coming soon about Luke Kennard, but even before the exhibition games, it was frustrating to see Kennard labeled as an outside shooter. He is absolutely deadly from long range, but in no way should he be boxed into one single skill. His basketball IQ and anticipation are off the charts, and allow him to perform at a high level in every aspect of the game. Kennard will stand out this season.
And lastly, my kingdom for an Amile Jefferson mid-range jumper! (His free-throw motion looks better) The spacing that would provide cannot be put in words.
Random, Doubtful, Unexpected Shocker Prediction (Just for Fun)
Antonio Vrankovik provides solid minutes for Duke this season. Though competing against players half a foot shorter than him, Vrank looked steady in the two exhibition games. Could he contribute during the season? Maybe.
(Goduke.com)
Season Thoughts
Non-Conference Record: 11-2
For a team still trying to develop an identity, Duke will face an early gauntlet with 9 games in the first 23 days of the season, including three in six versus Kentucky (in Chicago), Virginia Commonwealth (NYC), and either Wisconsin or Georgetown (NYC). Later, on December 19th, Duke matches up against Utah (NYC) in the game I’m most intrigued for. How will Duke play against a grinding, efficient team like the Utes when the Blue Devils are built to run and gun? As was written earlier, this could be a game in which Sean Obi plays bigger minutes against Jacob Poeltl.
College basketball is a point guard’s game, and Duke’s point guard is unknown at the moment. Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson, though expected to avoid missing any games, are healing from groin and ankle injuries respectively. And Brandon Ingram, the most talented player on the roster, is still feeling out the college basketball game.
The opponents Duke will match up against have some special point guards, so it will be a challenge. Kentucky (Ulis), Wisconsin (Koenig), and Indiana (Yogi Ferrell).
ACC Record: 14-4
The ACC has more depth this season that last, though still powerful at the top. North Carolina and Virginia are the clear elite, and though teams such as Notre Dame, Miami, and Florida State are receiving plenty of talk by certain national basketball prognosticators, there isn’t any reason to feel Duke definitely should be anywhere but third in the conference. If Florida State wasn’t representing a polar opposite identity of a typical Leonard Hamilton team (strength is an extremely talented backcourt), I’d love the Noles even more than I do now (and I love them plenty).
ACC Tournament: 3-0
Who on earth knows… Might as well pick Duke.
NCAA Tournament: 2-1 (Sweet 16)
Too many unknowns on Duke and too many other teams deserving based on a proven roster. This is not anti-Duke, it’s anti-picking a team purely based on its coach. After the 9 games in 23 days gauntlet, I might change my prediction (but don’t you wonderful people worry, the initial prediction will remain here forever to mock and rant against. Love you!)
