Let's take a look at Virginia's matchup with FSU on Saturday.
Games against Leonard Hamilton’s FSU teams always make me wish I could take the floor myself so I could talk junk and throw some ‘bows. Hamilton is a tremendous guy, but he preaches an aggressive-to-the-point-of-brash style on both ends, and 40 minutes of that physicality paired with our intense-but-deliberate style seems to have a propensity to boil down to something ugly. There’s a history here; from Toney Douglas’s constant yapping to Bernard James’s kick to Okaro White pulling no punches to the 38 fouls called in last year’s meeting to Hamilton seemingly collecting massive seven footers who bunk on the bench press, it feels like even when we beat FSU (which we have in six of the last eight meetings), we leave with bruises.
The last two seasons have seen Hamilton step his team’s talent level up a notch. 2016’s Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasley-led group underachieved some (the ‘Noles went 20–14 and flamed out in the second round of the NIT), but this year’s model — minus Beasley but plus the nation’s 11th-best recruiting class according to 247 Sports — is 13–1 and has top-100 wins over Florida, Wake Forest, Illinois, and Minnesota (though they’ve also banked five wins over teams ranked 200th or worse, so take their record with a grain of salt).
FSU beat us 69–62 in Tallahassee last season in a game that swung on our inability to keep Xavier Rathan-Mayes (who I’ve always enjoyed) out of the lane or stop Bacon (18 points) or Beasley (17), who thoroughly outplayed Malcolm and London (3–19 on twos, 8–30 from the floor overall).
The first thing that jumps out at me about this year’s Seminoles is their depth. In their five point win over Florida, nine guys played at least 10 minutes and 12 saw the floor, and for the year, the bench is playing 41.6% of their minutes — 22nd in the country.
They’ve had three leading scorers in their last four games, so there’s an unselfishness brewing there that should seem at least kind of familiar. Dwayne Bacon (17.4 ppg, 54.2% on twos) is their unquestioned leader (his 178 shot attempts are 67 more than the next ‘Nole), but after him, 6’10'’ freshman wing Jonathan Isaac (12.8) and Rathan-Mayes (10.9) are in double figures and four more ‘Noles average between 7.2 and 8.5. Their offense is the 23rd-most efficient in the country (1.14 points per possession) thanks to their usual desire to push it in transition (they’re top-50 in tempo) and pound it to the rim (8th-best nationally at 58.2% on twos) compounded with strong offensive rebounding (34.4%) and fewer turnovers (just 16.7%) than we’re used to from the sloppy FSU teams of years past.
Bacon sizzles at the basket, taking 41% of his shots at the rim (a huge amount for a non-big) and making 64.4% (ditto). He’s a good enough jump shooter (34.5% on threes) to make you come out on him and set up the drive.
Isaac is skinny and is still catching up to the college game, but he’s got handles and has shown the ability to finish around the rim and hit the college three (15–40, 37.5%).
Rathan-Mayes is still a great handler and aggressive driver, and might be the key to their fortune. The thing with all three of these guys is that they’re seeking efficient outcomes: they forsake the midrange in favor of either a three or a look at the rim and draw plenty of fouls (all three have FT rates of 38/100 FGA or higher).
The second thing you notice about Florida State is that they’re really tall across the board. FSU has two seven footers, goes 6'4'’/6'6'’/6'7'’/6'10'’/7'1'’ across the starting lineup, and only even plays one person under 6'4.’’ Their great percentage defenses (42.8% on twos, 30.5% on threes) should be expected so long as they move their feet well. We’re not short as a team, but 6'7'’ Jarred Reuter and Isaiah Wilkins will be tested once again against taller, stronger foes inside and our guards (particularly London and Kyle) could find clean looks harder than usual to come by.
FSU is very good at both blocking shots (10.8% of opposing looks thanks to frequently pairing Isaac with one of the two seven footers) and playing the passing lanes (Rathan-Mayes, Bacon, Terrance Mann, and backup guard Trent Forrest combine to average five steals per game). They’re not always disciplined in fighting through screens (Wake hit 10 threes and Temple made 11 of 21 in FSU’s lone loss) are subpar on the defensive glass (69.3%, thanks in part to their desire to get out on the break), and foul a lot (of course they do, it’s FSU). Their defense is susceptible to breakdowns against patient teams that put them through their paces. Hopefully you can think of one.
Basically, we need to put on a typical Virginia basketball performance to win tomorrow.
Defensively, the help will need to be on time. We counter FSU’s eighth-best shooting mark on twos with the second-best two point defense in college hoops (38.2% so far). Devon Hall, London Perrantes, and Darius Thompson will need to move their feet and slide over to keep FSU’s guards out of the lane. The bigs — Jack Salt in particular, since he has a documented problem with this and will be a foul magnet so long as he remains Drago-esque — will need to go straight up and challenge without contact.
On offense, we will need to be efficient and intelligent. This doesn’t just mean avoiding dumb turnovers (mostly a strength so far this season); it also means not taking bad shots that could create runouts due to long rebounds or poor positioning.
The most important thing though, as it always is against FSU, is defending the lane and making the ‘Noles into a jump shooting team. If Rathan-Mayes and Bacon are allowed unfettered access to the painted area, it could be a long day.
Virginia
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
London’s five turnovers against Louisville tied his career high and were the most he has had in a game since our last meeting with Louisville. In spite of that, his TO rate (17.2%) is still on pace to be a career low.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0.
Devon’s role has changed from surrogate point guard behind London and Malcolm to evolutionary small ball big man. He’s grabbing defensive boards at a higher rate (17.3%) than Isaiah Wilkins (14.0%) or Jack Salt (14.9%).
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius has not ended a game with an offensive rating over 100 since November 26th (Providence) and has scored in double figures just once since then. I know he brings more to the table than that (and his ability to set up his teammates resembles his Tennessee stint more than his first year here, which is good), but he needs to be an active contributor with his own O as well.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Isaiah is both taking and making less midrange jumpers than he did in 2016, but his combined steal (4.2%, 44th nationally) and block (6.6, 106th) rate ranks among the best in the country.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack needs to play offense like his haircut suggests. I want him trying to dunk everything if he makes the catch within a few feet of the rim.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
Guy’s double digit scoring run ended at three games, but his nine points (especially the last two) were huge against Louisville. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares against a big, rugged FSU squad.
G: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial broke out of his shooting slump and gave us 11 good minutes against Louisville.
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
Let me know if you get bored of me losing my shit over Mamadi making basic basketball plays look easy. He made a tough catch on a dish the other night, pivoted, and gently laid the ball in with the nonchalance you and I show while buttoning a shirt or opening our email.
FSU
G: Xavier Rathan-Mayes — 6'4'’ jr #22
Last two games: 38 points, 5–11 3PT. Went for 23 on 10 shots (10 FTA) vs. Wake. The three point shooting might be a mirage.
G: Terance Mann — 6'6'’ so #14
No range, but is shooting 65.3% on 72 two-point tries. He does what is asked (defense, open looks off of cuts, defensive boards, the occasional assist) and stays in his lane.
F: Dwayne Bacon — 6'7'’ so #4
Bacon hung 24 on Florida and 23 on Wake, and has now scored in double figures in 23 straight games (and in all but three games of his college career so far).
F: Jonathan Isaac — 6'10'’ fr #1
Isaac’s biggest problem is that sometimes FSU forgets about him amidst their other options, but he’s doing a little bit of everything.
C: Michael Ojo — 7'1'’ sr #50
Doesn’t play much, but does exactly what FSU wants him to do: dunks, grabs offensive boards (19.5%), blocks shots (9.1%), and draws fouls (he has more FTA than FGA).
F: Trent Forrest — 6'5'’ fr #3
As a freshman, is hitting 63% of his twos, has an 18.5% assist rate, and is taking two FTs for every three FGs. He doesn’t have range yet.
G: CJ Walker — 6'1'’ fr #2
Token short guy missed the first six threes of his college career but has gone 9–19 since. Has 11 assists to just five turnovers in December.
C: Christ Koumadje: 7'4'’ fr #21
Christ has risen to block 14.2% of opposing shot attempts when he’s on the floor.
Verdict:
We’re playing at home in front of what will be a boisterous capacity crowd in spite of the holiday weekend. Traditionally, we’ve been able to keep to our game plan until FSU breaks, and I think that our performance in Louisville was a signal that this group has that kind of resolve in them. If we keep the tempo down and make FSU run their offense and defend against ours, we should be able to move to 2–0 in the ACC and back into the top 10 nationally.
