Pitt is 11–3 with some nice wins (at Maryland, against Marquette on a neutral floor), but some losses (Duquesne) and close calls (Buffalo, yielding 106 points to Marshall) that have people questioning their bona fides. A statement win was within their grasp a few days ago, but the ageless Steve Vasturia yanked it away with a game-ending three pointer. Now, we afford them a shot at the #11 team in the country in their own gym.
We’re fine, but coming off a weird loss to Florida State at home, I’d like to nab this win to a.) stay above .500 in league play and b.) begin my quest for four wins in this next stretch (Pitt, Wake, Clemson, BC, Georgia Tech) to stock up on goodwill going into what looks like a harsh February.
Pitt is 0–4 against us since joining the ACC and has only cracked 50 points once in those four games, hitting the mark exactly in a 14-point loss at The Zoo last season and putting up 45, 48, and 49 in the three before that. You might remember one of those as a chapter in The Legend of Malcolm Brogdon:
Pitt’s a buddy cop movie. Michael Young and Jamel Artis are fourth-year seniors, wear sequential numbers (#2 for Young and #1 for Artis) and are first (22.9 — Young) and third (21.2 — Artis) in the ACC in scoring through roughly half a season, scoring more than 20 points in 19 of 28 combined games. Cam Johnson (12.8 ppg, double-figures in 10 straight) is the junior cop trying to make a name for himself — Young and Artis are Riggs and Murtaugh, and Johnson is Detective Lee Butters.
One might think that with Kevin Stallings now prowling the sideline with his promises of uptempo offense and Young and Artis scoring at such high levels, Pitt would be a much better offense than they were over the James Robinson years. It hasn’t worked that way — the Panthers’ offensive efficiency (112.5) sits comparably with their first three years in the ACC (113.8, 111.4, 116.3) and their adjusted tempo (68.1 possessions per 40, 244th nationally) is faster, but definitely isn’t fast.
The Panthers have barely noticed the absence of Robinson. They assist on 60% of their made baskets (Artis and Young combine for 6.8 per game) and only turn it over on 16.2% of their possessions. They get to the line a lot (which is not a surprise when your two stars take roughly a free throw for every two shots) and have made 37.3% of their threes, thanks to Artis (42.1%), Young (45.5%) and Johnson (41.6%) taking 65% of their tries. Offensive rebounding has been a concern, with Young’s offensive responsibilities leaving the smallish Sheldon Jeter (6'8,’’ 230, 10.6% of offensive boards) abandoned under the basket.
Defense has been an issue at times. Pitt defended well in wins over Maryland and Marquette, but have also done things like allow Marshall a parade of twos (the Herd shot 61% inside the arc, many around the rim) and 1.22 points per possession in that game and have allowed five of six opponents (including such luminaries as Rice and Nebraska-Omaha) to crack 1.00. The Panthers rebound well (74.4%) thanks to a gang effort on that end and don’t foul often, but they never force turnovers and have given up an almost 50% (49.8, to be exact) mark on twos. The lane is attainable ground, especially for waterbug type point guards.
We will need to defend in transition tomorrow, much like we do against Duke when they try to get up the floor before we can get set. The biggest difference in approach from Jamie Dixon to Kevin Stallings has been how Stallings advocates an almost seven-seconds-or-less, “if you have a good shot, shoot it” philosophy that’s almost in direct contrast to how Dixon’s later clubs would pound the basketball searching for openings. I’m not so much worried about that, as we’ve been defending in transition very well this season.
My biggest concern is Artis. He put up 17 and 20 on Brogdon-led Virginia teams in the last two meetings, has 55 in Pitt’s last two games, and is slightly more dynamic in his ability to create for himself or others off the bounce than Young. As we saw against FSU, we lack an ace one on one perimeter defender to stick on a star wing. Devon Hall and Marial are good enough and Darius is much improved, but none of them are so solid that you can stick them on a guy like Bacon or Artis (or *gasp* Jaron Blossomgame) and forget about the matchup. Regarding Young, he might be a better player than Artis, but I think we’re better suited to defend him. He’s not a true post up big (less than a third of his shots come at the rim), so he might be a good matchup for Devon (which would mean the return of our four guard sets) or Mamadi Diakite, who I think could smother Young as a change of pace in short stints (and who I’m longing to see more of). I feel like Young is too mobile for Isaiah, especially once he gets a head of steam on the perimeter.
On offense, our guards need to get into the lane and challenge Pitt around the basket. The Panthers are long in the backcourt (ideal for contesting two point jumpers) but not especially fleet of foot, so I’d love to see London, Devon, and co. touch the paint before deciding to shoot or pass, and try not to be afraid of taking the extra step to the basket. Also, harkening back to FSU, as a team without a dominant scoring presence, we can’t afford to shoot ourselves in the foot with lazy passes and dumb turnovers, especially against a team that is not going to pressure the ball. The Zoo is going to be loud as long as it’s close, so toeing the line between careful (not hurting ourselves and setting them off) and conservative (but not failing to take advantage of opportunities to get easy looks) will be key.
Virginia:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
Three statistical goals for London in this game: 12 shots, five assists, and three turnovers or less. Those are all benchmarks he should be able to hit relatively easily and indicate that he’s playing well.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0.
An indication of how Devon’s role has changed: he has one assist in our last four games and hasn’t attempted a three in our last two. His 43.3% shooting mark at the rim is the worst on the team, and is a number that has to come up (and it might if he stopped attempting to get Derrick Rose-y in avoiding contact).
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius has had a rough start to ACC play (30 minutes, 9 points, 1–4 3pt, turnovers on 37% of finished possessions) and is losing ground to Guy.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Isaiah confuses me. He’s being a disruptive defensive force, but is often passive on offense and seems to have lost the bulk he added last season without regaining speed. His willingness to pop midrange jumpers and his defensive rebounding are at career lows.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
My hypothesis: Jack often looks like he’s being stung by bees when attempting layups because he’s trying to get the shot off before getting fouled, since he’s only made five of his last 13 from the stripe.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
It is absolutely 100% time for Kyle Guy to start. His defense is at a point where whatever it gives up is mitigated by how dynamic he is on offense.
G: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial needed more minutes against FSU, as he was both efficient and dialed-in in the first half against the Seminoles, and could have chipped in bothering Bacon or helping out on offense.
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
Watching Mamadi realize the things he’s capable of is incredibly entertaining. The two drives he took — one ending in the dunk, the other in a drawn foul after he picked up his dribble practically at half court — were new and must-watch basketball. I would not be against him beginning to syphon minutes from Jack.
Pitt:
G: Justice Kithcart — 6'1'’ fr #5
Freshman point guard has T.J. Bannister shooting splits (1–13 from three, 27.8% on 18 FTA). This game can only be decided by a game of one on one between him and Justice Bartley for the title of Chief Justice.
G: Jamel Artis — 6'7'’ sr #1
I love when a guy increases his usage and shot rate while lowering his turnover rate, especially while serving as the focal point of an offense. Artis is playing de facto point guard a lot of the time while also serving as the primary perimeter option on offense.
F: Cameron Johnson — 6'8'’ so #23
The heir apparent for Pitt after Young and Artis depart after this season, Johnson has scored in double figures in 10 straight games and has made a three in 12 of 13 games this season. He’s the Panther I most want to keep quiet, assuming Artis and Young get theirs.
F: Michael Young — 6'9'’ sr #2
22.9 points, 7.7 boards, 3.3 assists per game on 50.7% shooting overall and 45.5% from deep. He’s gone from pretty good to very good/borderline scary good, and it’s due mostly to added quickness, ability off the bounce, and intelligence.
F: Sheldon Jeter — 6'8'’ sr #21
Pitt’s lone dedicated offensive rebounder (10.6%), he (20.9%) pairs with Young (19.9%) to patrol the defensive glass. He’s not super involved in their O, but is a pick-and-pop threat (9–28 3PT).
F: Chris Jones — 6'6'’ sr #13
The sixth starter: Jones averages almost 31 minutes per game, averages 6.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and is a very good perimeter defender. Has been in an offensive slump since early December.
F: Ryan Luther — 6'9'’ jr #4
Third year career reserve type had the game of his life (8–8 from the floor, 2–2 from the line, 20 points) in Pitt’s win over Rice. Burly forward is not super athletic, but screens, rebounds the defensive glass, and can shoot a little (16–35 from three over the last two seasons combined).
G: Jonathan Milligan — 6'2'’ jr #55
Deep bench guy last season surpassed his 2016 minutes total by game five of this one. Still only getting token minutes.
Verdict:
Pitt has a better top two, but we’ve got the horses to make up for it in the smaller print of the lineup — we’ve got a major depth advantage in this game. Pitt’s defense is the weak link, and if we manage to take advantage of it by consistently getting a dribble in the lane en route to a rhythm shot, we should be able to score on them more consistently than they score on us. If we can significantly slow one of Artis and Young and mute the backup singers, we should be able to score an always-special ACC road win and continue our dominance of the Pitt series. Here’s hoping.
