Virginia basketball had a rough week last week. That much is certain. The last time we had a week like this was the first week of January in 2013, when we lost consecutive roadies to 134th-ranked Wake and 124th-ranked Clemson. That’s a long time ago — seems like eons when you factor in the emotional highs of the consecutive 30-win seasons since — so maybe we’ve been lulled into a false sense of security. All is not lost. Even good teams have slumps. Legacies are not made in January. Let’s enjoy this team instead of panicking. Sports are supposed to be fun, and I think this team still has some good times ahead of it.
So thanks to that little slump, we might not three-peat as ACC regular season champs, and we might be a four or five seed in the NCAA Tournament instead of a one or two. This isn’t a huge deal. These losses are just two games in January with 15 more conference games, the ACC Tournament, and the NCAAs still to come. This team’s legacy is still a blank canvas, and I believe that they’re just as much the team with the zippy offense and occasionally suffocating defense that beat two top-1o teams in rolling to a 12-1 start as they are the one sluggishly opening games and allowing threes with abandon.
Tonight is a terrific opportunity for our guys to right the ship, though it won’t come easy. Miami is good: 13-1 overall, 6-1 against KenPom’s top-100, 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.5) and 15th on D (92.8). The ‘Canes are experienced — they start four seniors and a junior — athletic, and still boast one of the best coaches in the biz.
Tonight should show us if the team learned anything from their losses last week, because Miami counts a lot of our trouble spots as strengths. The ‘Canes run continuous motion on offense, using ball screens at the top of the key to either give the shifty Angel Rodriguez (11.4 points, 3.8 assists per game) or bullish Sheldon McLellan (16.3 ppg, 55% shooting, 41.2% 3PT) a head start into the lane or 6’10” stretch four Ivan Cruz Uceda (50% from deep) the chance to pop out for a three. For being such a well-coached and efficient team, Miami hurts themselves because Rodriguez and Ja’Quan Newton take looks away from McLellan despite not being nearly as good as Sheldon is at actually putting the ball in the basket. Rodriguez has taken five more shots than McLellan despite an EFT that is 14.4% lower. That smarts (and isn’t smart).
The ‘Canes don’t turn the ball over much (16.2%), and get to the line a ton. Under the basket, they boast one of my favorite bigs in the league in 7’0” senior Tonye Jekiri (8.7 ppg, 9.6 rpb, 11.4% OREB), who poses a real matchup question for us with his height and mobility. Jekiri is one of the best offensive rebounders in the ACC, and is always moving around the lane area mucking things up (blocking shots, tipping passes, impeding sight lines, blowing up screens, tipping out rebounds, etc).
The winning formula for Virginia starts with matching Miami’s energy from the opening tip. Falling down by 10-12 points in the first half won’t do, especially since that will take what will probably be a rowdy JPJ crowd out of the game. We’ll have to guard screens better than we have been, contest threes well, keep Jekiri from changing the game on the glass, and run our offense crisply and consistently for entire possessions. I’m not sure we’re choosing some of the bad shots we’ve taken in the last week so much as they’ve been what’s left when the blockers and movers stop blocking and moving. I’m expecting a tight game, but I’m also expecting us to rebound some from our nightmare road trip.
Verdict:
Jim Larrañaga’s offenses have been tough for us to stop. The last two meetings with full-strength Miami teams have seen the ‘Canes score 0.96 (in a season where we allowed 0.91) and 1.07 (in a season where we allowed 0.86) points per possession. Calling for a win tonight means placing a lot of faith in a.) the healing powers of the John Paul Jones Arena and b.) the ability of our coaching staff to rebuild the psyches of our players over the last three days.
Luckily, I have faith in both of those things, as well as enough short term memory to remember that we have been outright better than three good teams in Villanova, West Virginia, and Notre Dame in the last month. That team is still here. I think we combine crisp offense with one good defensive stand (say, seven or eight minutes with one or two baskets allowed) to pull away in the second half for a seven or eight point win.
