Signs point to yes.
Over on ESPN’s ACC Blog, David Hale does a mailbag every week or two. This week’s brought up a valid question about the Syracuse Orange’s Ervin Philips, and his potential as a breakout star this season.
As you’re certainly aware, Philips caught 90 passes (second-most in SU history) for 822 yards and six touchdowns last season, while tacking on an additional TD on the ground. Those numbers aren’t necessarily eye-popping, but they were among the best in the ACC (especially in terms of receptions).
This season, Philips returns, along with Eric Dungey and what should be (has to be?) an improved offensive line. However, Amba Etta-Tawo, who received a lion’s share of the targets in 2016, is gone, which should open up more opportunities for Philips, as well as new No. 1 outside receiver Steve Ishmael.
Hale shares an impressive stat, too, around Philips’ production over the last two years. He’s one of just four Power Five players to record 500 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in both 2015 and 2016. The others? Far more ballyhooed players like Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, NC State’s Jaylen Samuels and Oklahoma State’s James Washington.
One of those players, Washington, plays in a similarly up-tempo system to Syracuse, and one could assume he manages to surpass the 1,380 yards and 10 scores he put up last year.
But what about Philips? What constitutes a “breakout” for him?
Hale says 100 receptions and 1,000 yards as a baseline for his production. And that seems reasonably fair. Syracuse players caught 332 passes in 2016, with 27 percent of them going to Philips. The team experienced a three-game dip in offensive production without Dungey as well, before roaring back in the finale vs. Pittsburgh.
If we assume that the Orange increase total team receptions to something like 370, even (far from unreasonable), a 27-percent clip would get Philips to exactly 100. If we bump his catches up to 30 percent, and get Ishmael up to around 27, the pair would have 111 and 100, respectively.
That would still leave 160 catches for Sean Riley, Devin Butler, Ravian Pierce, Jamal Custis and whoever else ended up being a viable option at receiver.
That certainly seems reasonable, as Etta-Tawo’s catches and targets do have to go somewhere.
It’s also worth noting that Philips putting up that sort of production would vault him to the top of the Orange record books. He’s just 67 catches behind Alec Lemon for the all-time lead right now, though he’s still 1,600 yards back of Marvin Harrison’s all-time mark in that category. Philips would also need to double his career receiving touchdowns (11) to tie Rob Moore’s own mark of 22. Still, the receptions total seems well within reach — a surprising accomplishment for a player who’s only really spent one full season at wideout.
There will be plenty of time this offseason to discuss other potential breakout players, but if you’re looking for a name to focus in on right now, it’s probably Philips. Without the hype of others around the conference, he’s already put up some impressive career numbers. Now, with more eyes on him, we’ll get to see if he spends his senior season surpassing expectations once again.
