Currently on the inside track, but plenty of potential movement up and down the ladder.
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Just six games remain for the Syracuse Orange in the 2024-25 regular season and it’s a race to the finish line for the program to clinch a spot in the ACC Tournament.
Heading into its final segment of the year, Syracuse boasts the chance to move in either end of the spectrum of possibilities — either completely miss the conference tournament altogether (long-shot odds, but a possible scenario) to clinching at least one bye day.
A lot can change over the next few weeks.
As of Wednesday, Syracuse sits 14th in the ACC standings with a 5-9 record against the conference and an 11-14 overall record.
The key component to consider is that there is a clear top-six right now in the conference: Duke, Clemson, Louisville, SMU, Wake Forest and Stanford. Then, there’s UNC. After that, you’re looking at a giant tier of programs (including the Orange) sitting around both a .500 overall and conference record:
- #8: Virginia Tech (11-13, 6-7)
- #9: Florida State (14-9, 5-7)
- #10: Pittsburgh (14-10, 5-8)
- Tied at #11: Cal (12-12, 5-8)
- Tied at #11: Virginia (12-12, 5-8)
- #13: Georgia Tech (11-13, 5-8)
- #14: Syracuse (11-14, 5-9)
Among the group, there’s a couple teams punching slightly above-.500, namely Pitt (who has cooled off the second half of the year) and FSU (who is playing much better now compared to the start of the season).
But the common denominator is all of them are within 1-2 conference wins/losses of each other.
Syracuse sits just half a game in the conference loss column from four teams: Pitt, Cal, UVA and Georgia Tech, and two losses back from FSU and Virginia Tech.
The rest of the Orange’s schedule is a total “who’s who” of ACC teams, most in that middle of the pack:
- home for North Carolina
- at Pittsburgh
- Home for NC State
- At Virginia Tech
- At SMU
- Home for Virginia
Ranking the games based on the “which ones will matter the most and absolutely need to be wins” scale purely to make the conference tournament, NC State probably ranks first because it’s at home and the Wolfpack are outside the field. Syracuse likely can’t afford to pull a performance like it did against Miami (another ACC bottom feeder this year).
After that, it’s probably Virginia Tech and Virginia. Winning against the Hokies will certainly shake up the standings a lot, while beating the Cavaliers could propel Syracuse up a few seeds in most scenarios.
Keep in mind the new ACC Tournament format because of conference expansion: seeds No. 10 to No. 15 play first, seeds No. 5 to No. 9 get one bye and the top-four seeds get two byes.
Based on current standings, the most realistic/middle outcome sees Syracuse as a double-digit seed, with some upside to maybe get the No. 9 spot in the ACC Tournament.
On the flip side, is there any chance Syracuse could outright miss the conference tourney?
The bottom-three teams in the conference are Miami (6-18, 2-11), NC State (9-14, 2-10) and Boston College (10-13, 2-10). Notre Dame (10-13, 4-8) sits just behind the Orange for that final top-15 spot.
Syracuse does have the extra three wins in its belt compared to the bottom-three, so there is some cushion. The case against the Orange: three of the final six opponents (UNC, Pitt and SMU) are top-10 in the conference (two in the top-seven), and a pair of those games are on the road.
Just to match Syracuse’s current number of conference wins (assuming the Orange don’t win a single ACC game the rest of the year), those bottom-three teams would need at least three or four wins against:
Miami: Pitt, FSU, VT, Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech and NC State
BC: Notre Dame, NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Cal, Clemson and Pitt
NC State: BC, UNC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Pitt and Miami
BC probably boasts the best odds to sneak in since it can at least get ND and NC State for two straight games, then gets two “swing” matchups right after that against VT and GT. Miami probably has the longest odds still needing to play Pitt, FSU, Duke and UNC. NC State sits in the middle, but it does play BC and ‘Cuse.
‘Cuse getting 2-3 wins likely does the job just to sneak in, but because there is so much volatility after the top-eight or so in the ACC, expect plenty of shake up in the conference standings during these last few weeks of the regular season.
