Leonard Fournette is going to make life miserable for SU's defense Saturday.
Three weeks into the 2015 season, Syracuse's approach defensively is becoming clearer. It seems that the Orange have three primary objectives: to (1) stop the run, (2) pressure the quarterback and (3) prevent the big pass play. To do this, SU typically stacks the box with its front seven while its corners and safeties play it safe and sag off receivers.
This approach has holes, as it essentially means that getting a sack is Syracuse's only chance at stopping medium range throws. But it would seem that if there's a team to try this strategy against, it's LSU. The Tigers feature arguably college football's best running back in Leonard Fournette and their quarterback, Brandon Harris, has thrown for just 145 yards in two games. In theory, it makes sense to try to make Harris beat you.
But it's not going to work. There's simply no slowing down Fournette, who can do it all. Even if he doesn't run for the 228 yards he ran for against Auburn, the threat of him will likely cost Syracuse in play action scenarios. And Harris is a better, more efficient quarterback than most give him credit for. One way or another, it's difficult to see the Tigers not putting on an offensive clinic Saturday at the Carrier Dome.
When LSU runs, Syracuse's goal will, obviously, be to win the battle up front and meet Fournette at or near the line of scrimmage. There are two issues with that. One: LSU's offensive line has been borderline dominant and SU's defensive line just got pushed around by Central Michigan. Two: Fournette is so strong that even when initial contact is made near the line of scrimmage, he's still able to pick up solid yardage.
In the play above, Fournette runs into a pile of Auburn and LSU linemen about one yard from the line of scrimmage. It looks doubtful that he's going to pick up more than a yard or two. And then he promptly picks up five yards.
Watching that game, I was as impressed with his ability to do what he did on that play -- make something out of nothing -- as I was with his runs of 71, 40 and 29 yards. By my count, he had 10 runs of between four and nine yards.
But when Fournette does get into the open field -- and he does so often -- it's virtually over. Bringing him down in one-on-one situations will prove very difficult for the players in Syracuse's secondary. Auburn's corners and safeties couldn't do it.
As Syracuse head coach Shafer said on his weekly teleconference Tuesday, Fournette has a rare combination of speed, quickness and power. Each was on full display in those two plays above. It's what makes some, like SU defensive coordinator Chuck Bullough, draw comparisons between Fournette and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.
As is the case with any great running back, Fournette's ability to alter the game goes far beyond what he does with his carries. With defenses always having to pay attention to Fournette, it opens up opportunities to run play action. And while the Tigers haven't passed the ball a whole lot this year, they did use a good amount of play action against Auburn.
Below, watch as the entire Auburn defense bites on the fake handoff to Fournette, freeing up LSU tight end Colin Jeter in the end zone for the touchdown reception.
That doesn't bode well for the Orange. So far this season, Syracuse has been especially susceptible to play action. In the past two weeks, Wake Forest quarterback John Wolford and Central Michigan quarterback Cooper Rush combined to go 15-of-19 for 204 yards and two touchdowns on play action against SU, our own Brian Tahmosh found.
In both those games, Syracuse's linebackers took gambles and consistently bit on the fakes, opting to force Rush and Wolford to beat them through the air with short and medium range throws. They did, and Harris is likely to do the same when the Orange bite on fake handoffs to Fournette.
Not only has Harris completed better than 67 percent of his throws this season, but his passing success rate of 54.6 percent against Auburn was nearly 14 percent better than the national average. Harris doesn't throw the ball down the field much, but against Syracuse's prevent-like defense, he won't need to. He'll be able to dink and dunk all day if he wants to.
Still, I'd be surprised to see the Tigers throw the ball more than 15 or 20 times on Saturday. SU isn't as good against the run as the numbers say. The Orange rank third in rushing yards allowed per game, but that statistic is inflated by the Rhode Island game, when the lowly Rams managed just four yards on the ground. Last week, we saw some cracks in Syracuse's armor; Devon Spalding and Jahray Hayes combined for 134 rushing yards on 33 carries.
And this week, a running back far better than anything Syracuse has seen this year will visit the Carrier Dome. Leonard Fournette is going to have a field day.
