Game Preview: Louisville and Pitt face as the calendar turns to March

March has arrived.

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Louisville Cardinals (22-6, 15-2) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (16-12, 7-10)

Game Time: 6 p.m.

Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.

Television: ESPN2

Announcers: Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Chris Spatola (analysis)

Officials: AJ Desai, Tommy Morrissey, Kipp Kissinger

Favorite: Louisville by 10.5

Series: Louisville leads, 22-11

Last Meeting: Louisville won 82-78 on Jan. 11 in Pittsburgh

About Pitt:

Louisville and Pitt met inside the Petersen Events Center back on Jan. 11 in what was likely the most back-and-forth affair of U of L’s 2024-25 season. The Cardinals ultimately prevailed in what, at the time, felt like a monumental victory over a Panther team that ranked in the top 25 in virtually every metric utilized by the NCAA tournament selection committee.

The two teams have taken extremely different paths in the weeks since.

While Louisville has gone 10-1 since that triumph in the Steel City, Pitt has dropped eight of 12 and limped to a 7-10 conference record. A miracle run to an ACC tournament title now exists as the Panthers’ lone legitimate path to the Big Dance.

After four consecutive losing seasons to kick off his tenure with the Panthers, Pitt head coach Jeff Capel is going to need a strong run down the stretch to notch a third straight campaign with 20+ wins. The Panthers made the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2023 and were one of the last four teams left out of the field a year ago.

Capel’s squad lost a couple of key pieces last offseason — most notably Blake Hinson, who dropped 41 on Louisville in the second meeting between the two teams — but returned seven contributors and five key rotational pieces. This had made the team’s inability to build on a strong non-conference performance that included wins over Ohio State, West Virginia and LSU all the more frustrating for Panther fans.

Chief among those returners is senior guard Ishmael Leggett, who was named the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year last season. Leggett, who spent three seasons at Rhode Island before transferring to Pitt last year, is averaging career-bests in scoring (16.5 ppg), field goal percentage (46.2%), assists (2.7 apg) and steals (1.8 spg).

In keeping with the culture — both long and recent — of the program, Leggett is an extremely physical guard with good defensive skills who is most comfortable on offense moving towards the basket. He had a rough stretch in the middle of January and early February, but has now scored 19 or more points in four consecutive games. He is a very streaky outside shooter who is in the midst of his best run from the outside this season. The Cards gave him the outside shot in the first meeting, and he drilled 4-of-6.

Pitt’s leading scorer at the moment is the man who did the most damage in the first game against Louisville, sophomore point guard Jaland Lowe (16.7 ppg). Lowe has never seen a shot he didn’t like, but he’s most effective when he’s getting downhill and attacking the basket. He’s a terrific creator both for himself and others, but he can be loose with the ball and has seven games this season with four or more turnovers.

Lowe and Chucky Hepburn (and Terrence Edward a little bit on the defensive end) absolutely waged war against one another for 40 minutes in the first meeting. I’d expect nothing less in round two.

Depth was a huge asset for Pitt when these two teams met back in January. That isn’t the case anymore. The Panthers pretty much go just seven deep at the moment, and Capel has played all five of his starters 30+ minutes more times than not in recent weeks.

Florida State transfer Cameron Corhen is still the team’s most consistent inside threat. A big, physical and athletic center, Corhen is having the type of breakout season at Pitt that never really came at FSU. He’s fantastic around the rim, a skill that has him shooting 62.9 percent from the field.

Pitt hasn’t shot the ball insanely well from deep during ACC play, but Zack Austin is a threat to make the Cardinals pay if they over help to slow down Lowe or Leggett. He’s also two blocks shy of becoming the fifth player in ACC history with at least 50 blocks and 50 made three-point field goals in a season.

Houston transfer Damian Dunn, who hit three triples and scored 15 points in the first game against Louisville, fractured his elbow in the team’s win over North Carolina on Feb. 8 and is out for the rest of the season.

The Diaz-Graham twins are back yet again with their unique skill sets, and Guillermo is once again the more productive of the two. Guillermo Diaz-Graham is, pound for pound, the best shot blocker on the team. His ability to step outside and shoot the three makes him a unique challenge for any opposing big. His improvement, however, hasn’t been quite as dramatic as Capel would like.

Pitt is just 2-6 in conference games away from home, and has lost four in a row. A gut-punch home loss to Georgia Tech on Tuesday also likely has them searching for even more answers as they arrive in the Derby City.

Pat Kelsey talked on Friday about this still being an incredibly dangerous Pitt team, and there are reasons to believe that he isn’t just blowing smoke. The Panthers shoot the ball well from all three levels (especially inside the arc and at the free-throw line), and Lowe and Leggett remain one of the best backcourts in the conference.

A replay of Tuesday night’s performance in Blacksburg probably won’t get the job done in this one.

Notable:

—U of L has deemed Saturday night’s game as a “Stripe Out.” Fans sitting in even numbered sections are encouraged to wear red, while fans sitting in odd numbered sections are encouraged to wear black.

—After losing 17 of 18 games to the Cardinals, Pitt had won five consecutive games against Louisville before U of L’s triumph in January. All five of those wins had been by double figures.

—Louisville has improved from eight wins in 2023-24 to 22 wins in 2024-25, the largest single season turnaround in program history.

—Pitt ranks second in the ACC and 15th in the NCAA in free-throw percentage (.784). The Panthers are on pace to set a single-season free-throw percentage school record.

—Eight of Pitt’s 12 losses have come in Quad 1 games, with five of those defeats coming by six points or fewer.

—Pitt is 3-7 on the season in games decided by six points or fewer.

—Louisville has clinched a double bye for the 2025 ACC tournament.

—The Cardinals lost just one game combined over the months of January and February for only the fourth time in program history.

—Louisville’s six-game winning streak is the second longest among power conference teams, trailing Houston by one.

—Pitt’s starting backcourt of Ishmael Leggett and Jaland Lowe combines to average 33.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 3.6 steals per game. The duo has combined for 46 double-figure scoring games, including 17 games with 20 or more points scored.

—Reyne Smith is second in the country in made three-pointers per game (3.71) total made three-pointers (104). He also ranks fourth in total three-point attempts (270).

—Chucky Hepburn is 18th in the country in assists per game (6.0) and 24th in total assists (167). He’s also 12th in total steals (66) and 11th steals per game (2.44).

—James Scott is second in the country and first in the ACC in dunks with 64.

—Pitt is 11-0 on the season and 49-2 under Jeff Capel all-time when scoring 80 or more points in a game.

—Pitt has a school-record seven wins when trailing at halftime this season. The Panthers have also won four games in which they have trailed by double-figures at some point in the contest.

—Pitt is 0-2 against top 25 opponents so far this season, and 7-24 against ranked opponents under the direction of head coach Jeff Capel.

—Louisville’s 12 conference wins by double-digits are the second most in the country behind Duke’s 13.

—Louisville is in the AP poll this week for the 660th time in program history, the sixth-most of any program in the sport.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Louisville has led at halftime in 18 consecutive conference games.

—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 163 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 80, Pittsburgh 71