It’s time to move on from UCLA and Notre Dame. This team probably isn’t as good as the final margin they managed against Notre Dame and they’re not as bad as they looked for long stretches against UCLA. I’m hoping that getting to start the season against two elite teams will make our corners look faster, our linemen look stronger, and our linebackers look more like they have played competitive football before when competitive balance is eventually restored to the schedule.
We can glean a lot of positives from Notre Dame. I’m a Matt Johns convert. It took me a while to get there, but I feel more comfortable with him under center than I have about one of our signal callers in a long time. He’s steady, and Smoke, Albert Reid, Canaan Severin, Keeon Johnson, and Evan Butts give him options that he can feel good going to. The offensive line isn’t going to dominate, but managing to keep everything from imploding against UCLA and Notre Dame (they combined for two sacks) is a plus. Perhaps most notably, Steve Fairchild (with help) called a good game on Saturday. It doesn’t mean that he’ll ever do it again, but he’s done it once and the fingerprints of offensive head coach Chris Beatty on last week’s game plan means he/they probably will. Nic Conte looks like a deserving heir to Alec Vozenilek at punter.
The defense has questions, and it remains to be seen how the blame for their performance should be split between inexperience, ineptitude, and inability to match the talent of the opposition. We knew we would miss Eli Harold and Max Valles creating pressure on the quarterback and disrupting defenses the second they declared for the NFL Draft, but the difference has been stark. The defensive ends (Michael and Kwontie Moore, Trent Corney, Chris Peace) have been a mess, the linebackers (Zach Bradshaw and Mark Hall on the outside in particular) have moved like wooden cutouts of football players, and the corners have looked slow and have been bereft of even a hint of safety help. We’re 125th (of 128) in yards per play allowed and 111th in yards per game. The defense will obviously be better when we don’t play top-10 teams every week and the majority of our front seven not named David Dean or Mike Moore get acclimated to playing heavy snaps at the collegiate level, but this defense isn’t going to be the kind of group that will win you games on its own like the 2014 group was. Instead, we’ll just have to hope they can bend without snapping like they did for much of the fourth quarter against the Irish.
The special teams remain suspect and probably will as long as Larry Lewis has his hands on that group. It seems so easy for some teams to get to the 25 on kickoff returns, and like swimming the English Channel in full pads for our guys.
I’ve got history with William & Mary. The first Virginia football game I ever attended was the ‘Hoos Scott Stadium meeting with the Tribe in 1994. The first game I ever blogged about on this site was the brutal 2009 loss to William & Mary that started Al Groh staggering toward the unemployment line. This Saturday, my almost-three year old will make his Scott Stadium debut for a game with W&M. Finally, unrelated to my Virginia fandom, I was the free throw champion of the 1997 (or 1998, I don’t remember) William & Mary basketball camp.
Mike London has history with W&M, too. He played them twice during his tenure at Richmond (winning both by field goals) and then once at Virginia to start the 2011 season (a 40-3 romp). CML is 3-0 against the CAA as head coach at Virginia, with the aforementioned win over W&M and two wins over Richmond (34-13 and 43-19) to his credit.
About the Tribe:
W&M is 1-0 after a 34-7 win over Lafayette in their season opener, then saw a week off drop them from the FCS Coaches Poll (from 25th to second most in “Also Receiving Votes”). The media picked them to finish fourth in the CAA (the highest-ranked team to not receive a first place vote), and they’re still coached by Jimmye Laycock (who coached them when I saw my first game at Scott at 11 years old).
Their offense runs the spread like everyone else and orbits around the talents of senior running back Mikal Abdul-Saboor, who ran for a CAA-leading 1,266 yards (5.1 per carry) and 12 touchdowns in 2014 and 103 and two touchdowns in part time work in the Tribe’s season opener. Junior quarterback Steve Cluley is in his second year as a starter. He didn’t have to do much as a rookie (170 yards per game on 23.9 attempts per game) thanks to Abdul-Saboor, but didn’t hurt W&M (just four interceptions all season) when he was called upon and got more comfortable as the season went on. Receiver is a little bit of a question, with the big numbers in the Lafayette game coming from three guys who combined for six catches in 2014. Redshirt freshman Jack Armstrong gashed the Rams underneath (six catches, 32 yards) and junior Kevin Hart (a 58-yard touchdown) and senior Christian Reeves (52 yards) both turned in big plays.
The Tribe D is led by two preseason All-CAA choices: linebacker Luke Rhodes (93 tackles, four sacks in 2014) and cornerback DeAndre Houston-Carson (67 tackles, three INTs). Rhodes is particularly scary, as he’s big (6’1” and 240 pounds), fast, and excels both against the run and in defending the pass in the middle of the field. The Tribe produced a robust 34 sacks in 2014, but most of those graduated or departed (a feeling we can identify with) and they didn’t record one against Lafayette, which means they shouldn’t against Virginia either if there’s any justice in the world.
Their special teams are fine. Their kicker hit from 20 and 32 in his debut, and the punter averaged 51 on two punts. 5’9” pinball cornerback Aaron Swinton ran a kickoff back 40 yards against Lafayette, so he should probably be watched.
How to Beat William & Mary:
1.) Enjoy having a size, strength, and talent edge, but don’t coast because of it. We should be able to bully the Tribe on both lines, which means that if we’re ever going to see wide open lanes for Taquan Mizzell and pressure on the quarterback from the defensive line, this will be the day. It’ll be important to play like we’re playing an FBS team to enforce these advantages, but somehow I doubt that motivation will be a factor since we’re 0-2 and coming off of a last-second loss.
2.) Spy on Abdul-Saboor and tackle plays over the middle. Mikal Abdul-Saboor could play in the ACC. What he lacks in top-end speed, he makes up for in strength (coming in around 225) and quick feet, and William and Mary will look to get him going to follow his lead into a belief that their entire team can hang. He ran for 85 yards against Virginia Tech last year, busting loose for a 40-yarder and showing the ability to gut out yards against a top defense.
3.) Force turnovers. This is a time-honored method for turning a football game into a blowout fast, as it flips field position and forces the defense to come onto the field quickly and get into a rhythm.
4.) Execute the basics. No turnovers. No penalties. No frills. The basic Virginia game plan, executed without critical errors, should be enough to get us the big win we want.
5.) Jump out early. The longer a heavy underdog hangs around, the more likely it is that some fluke play goes their way and they actually win. Establish a big early lead and then let superior depth (which is the biggest difference between FCS and FBS) bring it home.
Watch For:
1.) Mike Moore at outside linebacker. I’m intrigued and scared by this. On one hand, the defensive end sized Moore at outside ‘backer and the defensive tackle sized Moore at defensive end means that we a.) will not yield easy rushing yards on that side of the field and b.) now need to start a Volkswagen Beetle at defensive tackle to maintain the pattern. On the other, we’re less mobile on that side of the field. I’m a little surprised that we’re not trying Trent Corney at the one dimensional rush spot.
2.) What will hopefully be our first look at Connor Brewer and/or Corwin Cutler. I’m putting the cart before the horse here, but realistically, things have not gone according to plan if we don’t see a backup quarterback get some time on Saturday. Brewer was less than whelming in fall camp, but it’d be interesting to see him get some live action.
3.) Daniel Hamm’s debut. It’ll be funny (and I’ll feel bad for Hamm) if he’s healthy enough for running back work tomorrow and piles up numbers against W&M, adding to the legend by putting up a monster game against an FCS foe only to fall down the depth chart again afterward. He was being called neck and neck with Mizzell during the preseason practice periods, so the hand injury he’s suffering from must be a nagging one to keep him from even notching a carry so far.
4.) True freshmen taking off their shirts. I’m referring to football players. I’m 32, after all. So far, we’ve only seen CJ Stalker, David Eldridge, and Olamide Zaccheaus take the field from the freshman class, but CML usually waits until the FCS game to break out the rest of the freshmen that aren’t going to redshirt, so this one should be telling. Linebacker Dominic Sheppard and safety Juan Thornhill are the prime candidates that have yet to make an appearance.
5.) Maurice Canady as punt returner. Canady returned one punt for 11 yards against Notre Dame and chose wisely on two more that landed near our goal line. It was a good start, and I’d like to see more.
Verdict:
A well-deserved chance to stretch our legs a little after the stresses of the first two games. If we avoid turnovers and silly penalties, this one shouldn’t be much of a contest. Virginia 38, William and Mary 10
