The time to start picking our NCAA Tournament brackets is rapidly approaching. We all have our own ways of selecting teams. We might have a gut feeling about who will win a particular matchup, or we just might pick a team because they have a cool mascot, or we could just flip a coin and pick a team that way. There is no exact science to picking them. But if you do want to pick teams based on matchups, I will provide caution as to picking ACC teams when the time comes.
Personally, I don't think any ACC teams will make the Final Four, maybe even the Elite Eight. But it's all matchup dependent. But I will advise you that when you do fill out your brackets, there are some factors to look at with the teams that are likely to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm just going to focus on the five teams that are pretty much locks to this point: Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh.
For starters, if you are scared of a team that plays at a slow pace, then you probably won't have Virginia, Syracuse, and Pitt going far. These three teams play at a pace of between 61-63 possessions per game, which rank in the 300's among all Division I teams. There's a good chance they will be playing in close games throughout their stays in the tournament.
Another factor is free throw shooting. If a team with some decent depth plays Virginia and North Carolina, then the opponent might play more aggressively defensively, and if these two teams go to the free throw line, then it could be quite the adventure. Both of these teams are ranked in the 300's in free throw shooting (Virginia shoots 65%, UNC shoots 63%). Duke is the only team of the five that ranks in the top 100 in free throw shooting.
Speaking of Duke, they are the one team of the five that lives and dies by the three. They are one of nine teams in Division I that shoots above 40% from three point range. They have also shot 670 threes, which is 15th most. But over the last three games, the Blue Devils have shot 28% from three. I know it's a three game sample size, but if Duke gets cold in one game shooting threes, it could spell doom for them.
I haven't touched on Pitt a lot yet, but if you've watched them at all during conference play, you know not to trust them. The Panthers have struggled to beat two bottom feeders in the ACC, Virginia Tech and Miami, at home. They have also lost to Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, and Florida State at home. As a result, I question them winning against level competition on a neutral court.
While you look at UNC's resume and see how well they have played of late, it is lacking a big road win. Their best road win during this winning streak is in state rival NC State, which they beat by one in overtime. They lost by double digits to the top two teams in the conference, Virginia and Syracuse, and may not beat Duke when they play March 8.
I'm not necessarily trying to put a damper on the seasons these five teams have had, but it is worth noting the flaws these respective teams have. A couple of these teams will have higher seeds come NCAA Tournament time, and there is a chance these issues may not pop up until later in the tournament. But keep these issues in mind when filling out your brackets.
