The Duke Blue Devils face off against the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers in Raleigh in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
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Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Donny Lind is in his first season as head coach at Mount St. Marys, after spending the prior three seasons as an assistant coach at UNC Greensboro. His Mountaineers lead the MAAC and is 34th in the nation in field goal percentage defense (40.8%).
Four Mountaineers average double figures in scoring, topped by Dola Adebayo with 13.4 points per game and Dallas Hobbs with 12.7 points per outing. Jedy Cordilia contributes 10.4 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds per contest. The Mountaineers knocked off Iona to capture the program’s first MAAC Tournament title on Saturday. Mount St. Mary’s (23-12) defeated American, 83-72, in the NCAA First Four on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke owns the second-highest net rating (38.16) in the history of KenPom (since 1996-97 season). Only the 1998-99 Duke Blue Devils have achieved a higher net rating (43.01). The Blue Devils have won 27 of their last 28 games since late November, including the nation’s fourth-longest current win streak at 11 consecutive victories. Duke leads the nation in scoring margin (+20.8) and ranks fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio (+1.75), fifth in effective field goal percentage (.574), seventh in field goal percentage defense (.386), seventh in scoring defense (61.9), ninth in rebound margin (+8.1), 15th in scoring offense (82.7), 17th in field goal percentage (.488), 20th in three-point percentage (.377), 23rd in assists per game (16.8) and 22nd in three-pointers per game (10.1) – all top marks in the ACC. Duke leads the ACC in scoring offense (82.7) and scoring defense (61.9), and could become the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in both categories. Duke is the only team in the country ranked among the top-three in both offensive (1st) and defensive (3rd) raw efficiency, according to KenPom. Duke is the only Division I team to score 80 points or more per game (82.7) and hold its opponents to fewer than 62 points per game (61.9).
With 18 points on Saturday, Kon Knueppel is averaging 18.1 points in the last nine games, connecting on 51-of-95 (.537) from the field and 19-of-43 (.442) from long range. Kon is second on the Blue Devils in scoring at 14.4 points per game overall. Freshman Cooper Flagg leads the Blue Devils in scoring at 18.9 points per game, he also leads the Blue Devils in rebounding (7.5) per game and in assists at 4.1 per game. Junior guard Tyrese proctor scores it at a 12 point per game clip for the Blue Devils and is shooting the three at 38%.
Final Thoughts
Mount St. Mary’s is a fairly big team, so while Duke is bigger, size isn’t going to be an overwhelming advantage for the Blue Devils in this one. What the Mountaineers do well is keep teams out of the paint, they are strong and long there and are gritty defenders. For Duke, offensively I think the key is patience, obviously you want to take 3’s if they are open 3’s, but there is zero need to force them. Being able to counter is going to be important, if the first action isn’t available keep working to get open. Make the defense have to make decisions, not saying Duke needs to run sets but reading the defense in front of you intrinsically will pay off for the Blue Devils.
Duke having a good offensive output and being strong with the ball will be the catalyst for an easier time defensively while good ball movement will be Duke’s friend offensively, taking care of the basketball and not taking shots that lead to run-outs is important for Duke’s defense. Keeping transition opportunities and points at a minimum and forcing the Mountaineers to play against a set defense. Mount St. Marys is a patient team that you can’t really speed up, they are good at passing up good shots for great ones, and they have a solid paint presence among their several talented bigs. It would be ideal for Duke not to have to double the paint, this cuts down on having to close on 3’s and keeps Duke’s defense at its best. Staying with Carmelo Pacheco, their best shooter at 46% will be important for Duke if there is anyone on the floor the Blue Devils cannot afford to leave open, it’s him. Duke has not been a team that forces many turnovers, but the Mountaineers have been generous with providing them, cashing in on those could be a decided advantage for the Blue Devils. Still, Dole Adebayo is a stud and Duke has to do a good job of guarding him and doing so while keeping him off the free throw line. He’s also a big that can step out and shoot the 3 and does so at a decent clip for his position. Cordilia, And Jr. and Adebayo are all capable of getting buckets.
