KenPom has released his log5 analysis which lays out each ACC team's probability of making it to the various stages of the ACC Tournament. UNC is looking at 87.0% to advance to the quarterfinals and 54.0 chance to make it to the semifinals. After that UNC is no better than 19.9% to advance to Saturday's title game and just 9.3% to win the whole event.
Here is how the rest of the league stacks up via KenPom.
Rd1 Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Virginia 100 100 92.8 66.7 42.0
2 Duke 100 100 80.6 61.3 33.0
5 N. Carolina 100 87.0 54.0 19.9 9.3
3 Notre Dame 100 100 74.5 25.3 8.2
4 Louisville 100 100 43.4 11.8 4.2
7 N.C. State 100 72.8 16.7 8.3 2.2
6 Miami FL 100 68.0 19.8 3.7 0.6
8 Clemson 100 55.0 4.3 0.8 0.1
10 Pitt 100 27.2 2.7 0.8 0.1
11 Wake Forest 72.7 27.0 5.3 0.6 0.07
9 Florida St. 100 45.0 2.9 0.5 0.06
13 Georgia Tech 55.2 7.7 1.6 0.2 0.02
12 Boston Coll. 44.8 5.2 0.9 0.08 0.01
14 Virginia Tech 27.3 5.0 0.4 0.02 0.001
According to KenPom it's Virginia and Duke's tournament to lose with both sporting 33% of better chances at the championship. UNC's 9.3% is actually third best with the Heels having a slightly better chance(19.9 vs 11.8) of winning in the semifinals versus what will likely be Virginia.
In terms of pure Vegas odds. UNC is at 13/2 to win the title which is the same as Notre Dame and Louisville but behind Virginia and Duke. Via Bovada.
Odds to Win the ACC Conference Tournament
Duke 5/4
Virginia 9/5
Louisville 13/2
North Carolina 13/2
Notre Dame 13/2
North Carolina State 25/1
Miami (FL) 28/1
Pittsburgh 100/1
Clemson 200/1
Florida State 200/1
Boston College 500/1
Georgia Tech 500/1
Virginia Tech 500/1
Wake Forest 500/1
The equal odds for UNC, Louisville and Notre Dame basically states that those three have equal chances of winning in the semifinals. In short, Virginia and Duke are the likely Saturday match-up. As far as overall odds, Miami and NC State are the only other two teams remotely in the ballpark. Everyone else is 100/1 or worse.
