Last time we made the Elite Eight, I was an 11 year old kid who thought that there was no greater low post scorer in college hoops than Junior Burrough and practiced Curtis Staples’ lightning fast release in my driveway. It’s been a minute.
I didn’t skip writing on ISU and delay this preview because I’m not excited. Trust me: the Elite Eight was the achievable benchmark I set for this team this year as to not feel like I was getting carried away and something we haven’t done in so, so, long, so I’m so happy. This means a ton for the program, the fourth years, and the coach. I delayed because I’m on vacation out of state in a house with seven other adults and five kids, and finding time to gather my thoughts has been nearly impossible. It’s also my anniversary, so here I am, kicking it at the keyboard at 6:30 on a Sunday morning.
Iowa State was a clinic in Virginia basketball. We scored 1.22 points per possession, notched 26 assists on 32 baskets, and shot 56%. I mentioned that the interior would be key, and Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey combined for 41 points and 15 rebounds, with Tobey continuing the dominant run he’s been on since Senior Night and AG continuing his rampage through the NCAAs (20.3 ppg, 71.8% shooting). The starters, Tobey, and Shayok all played at least 20 minutes and four of them scored in double digits and all seven produced at least five points.
Defensively, the Cyclones scored about a point per possession (1.04), but no one other than Niang (30 points, a ton of acquired respect from this writer) ever got going, and letting us get out to a 15 point lead before the 10 minute mark was a bad sign, as the lead never dipped under 10 the rest of the way.
What we saw on Friday night was an example of the advantage we have on the court under Tony Bennett: our disciplined, nuanced approach can be overwhelming to teams that play a more freewheeling style of basketball. If you’re not used to it, it catches you off guard and it can be difficult to adjust in time. Our next opponent (and both potential opponents after that) are used to it.
Syracuse has been on an unlikely run, sneaking into the NCAAs after exiting the ACC Tournament empty-handed as one of the worst at-large teams in history before benefitting from Middle Tennessee’s upset of Michigan State and Utah’s early exit to advance past 15th-seeded MTSU and the 11th-seeded ‘Zags. They’ve made it this far though, and so overlooking them feels like it’d be a mistake.
We’re 3-0 against Syracuse since the Orange joined the ACC, with wins by 19, 12, and eight points. We’ve shot a combined 54% on twos and have logged assists on 65.7% (50 of 76) of our baskets, and while we’ve occasionally been turnover-prone to start (20 total in the 2015 game, most in the first half), we generally haven’t had issue finding offensive success against them. London Perrantes has been the key, scoring in double figures in the two most recent meetings and dealing 24 assists to just seven turnovers in his career against ‘Cuse. His vision has been the key to finding seams in the zone, and his accuracy from distance has been a nice method to exploit them.
In the first meeting this season, we got 53 of our 73 from Malcolm (21), AG (16 and eight boards), and London (16 and seven assists) and took advantage of Syracuse’s lack of depth (Malachi Richardson and Michael Gbinije scored 47 of their 65) to win with relative ease. Only a late flurry of threes from Gbinije and Richardson (they made eight for the game) made the proceedings a little uncomfortable.
The keys for success for us are simple: be patient on offense but seize opportunities (especially with Isaiah and/or Malcolm operating as facilitators at the elbow extended — Mike and AG could do some serious damage from the high/low in this one), contest three point tries (there are going to be many — threes make up 42.5% of ‘Cuse’s shot attempts and they’re taking 20.3 per game in the NCAAs), and keep Tyler Roberson off of the offensive glass, where he grabs 14.8% for the season and just pulled in nine against Gonzaga’s twin towers. I think the key with the threes will be to push Richardson and Gbinije out a step or two further behind the arc than they’re used to, and to assign someone like Devon to Trevor Cooney to keep his irrational confidence heaves from suddenly making sense.
One point of confidence: we seem to struggle more with opponents that take threes in bunches when they’re generated off of dribble penetration and a kickout, and ‘Cuse doesn’t have the kind of shifty guard that dives to the rim to look out. It didn’t help much in the first meeting, when Richardson and Gbinije had the cheat codes active, but it should help tonight.
Another one: Syracuse is objectively bad at defensive rebounding (64.9%, 337th of 351 teams in the country). Seven of their last nine foes have grabbed at least 37.5%. With Gill and Tobey operating at their current level and Isaiah Wilkins chipping in four offensive boards in our first three games, second opportunities will be abundant if we want them.
I want us to continue to emphasize Gill and Tobey on offense and play from the inside out — Gill has had success against this ‘Cuse nucleus over the last two seasons (16.5 ppg) and is on an unholy roll anyway — and be careful lobbing the ball around the perimeter, where Gbinije (3.2% steal percentage), Trevor Cooney (2.6%), and Richardson (2.1%) all play the passing lanes hard.
Verdict:
I think we’re deeper, more experienced, and have a tremendous advantage on the inside. More importantly, I can’t pick against this team when we’re playing this well. When we’re on this kind of roll, our success depends on if we show up, be aggressive on offense and make other teams adjust to us instead of having to adjust to them. If it all goes through like it’s supposed to, I think a Final Four is in our future.
