The Blue Devils face off against their arch rival North Carolina Tar Heels at the Smith Center Saturday night in the final regular season game of the season.
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North Carolina Tar Heels
Hubert Davis has his Tar Heels on a 6 game winning streak where they are averaging just under 91 points per game. They currently sit at 20-11 overall and a conference mark of 13-6. North Carolina is the second-highest scoring offense in the ACC and ranks 23rd in the nation, averaging 82.1 points per contest. The Tar Heels rank 37th in the country and second in the ACC with 13.5 fast break points per game, and 29th nationally and third in the league in field goal percentage (.483).
RJ Davis leads the Tar Heels in scoring at 17.2 points per game. Davis is the seventh-leading scorer in the conference within the conference. Davis leads a trio of double figure scorers that includes Ian Jackson at 13.5 points per game and Seth Trimble at 12.1 points per game, he also serves as the leading rebounder for UNC at 5.3 per game. Sophomore guard Elliot Cadeau leads the Tar Heels in assists per game at 6.2, Cadeau’s 191 assists are second in the ACC and ranks 12th in the nation.
Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils roll into Saturday on a 7 game winning streak, sitting currently at first in the ACC with an 18-1 mark and an overall record of 27-3.
Duke owns the second-highest net rating (39.37) in the history of KenPom (since 1996-97 season). Only the 1998-99 Duke Blue Devils have achieved a higher net rating (43.01). The Blue Devils lead the country in scoring margin (+22.4) and rank second in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (+1.84), fourth in field goal percentage defense (.382), fifth in effective field goal percentage (.576), sixth in scoring defense (61.1), ninth in rebound margin (+8.5), 10th in assists per game (17.3), 13th in scoring offense (83.5), 15th in 3-point percentage (.385), 16th in field goal percentage (.489), 16th in three-pointers per game (10.4) and 37th in three-point percentage defense (.307) – all top marks in the ACC. Duke leads the ACC in scoring offense (83.5) and scoring defense (61.1), and could become the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in both categories. Duke is the only team in the country ranked among the top-four in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, currently ranked No. 1 in offensive raw efficiency and No. 2 in defensive raw efficiency. Duke is the only Division I team to score 80 points or more per game (83.5) and hold its opponents to fewer than 62 points per game (61.1). Duke’s 10 conference wins of at least 25 points are the most by any team in a season in ACC history.
Freshman Cooper Flagg leads the Blue Devils in scoring (19.6), rebounding (7.5) and assists at 4.2 per game. Another freshman, Kon Knueppel, averages 13.6 points, 3.9 boards and 2.5 assists per game and junior Tyrese Proctor comes in at 11.8 points per game.
Final Thoughts
To be clear the Blue Devils are the most talented team in this contest but as we know talent doesn’t always win games. The Blue Devils cannot and will not take this game lightly. The Heels are going to look to play fast, beating the Duke defense down the court. If they succeed it could be a long night for Duke and their hopes to win the ACC regular season outright. Make no mistake Duke has to bring their A game as the Heels are fighting for their tournament lives.
For UNC their backcourt is small but dangerous, RJ Davis has been a big shot hitter his entire career and I don’t expect anything less from him. Elliot Cadeau has shown what makes him a good player and that is ability to pass the basketball, if he hits shots in addition to that he becomes dangerous. Shutting him down makes Duke’s job a lot easier. Seth Trimble is arguably UNC’s best defender but his ability to drive the basketball through contact to score is an elite skill for the crafty guard.
The wildcards for UNC are the play of Ian Jackson and Jaelyn Withers. Withers has been very good for the Tar Heels of late and Duke will need to watch him, especially in the corners where he is most dangerous from beyond the arc. For Ian Jackson, arguable the most athletic and highest ceiling of the Tar Heel players, Duke needs to guard him, just like Withers, he’s dangerous – especially in the corners where Hubert Davis likes to run things to get him going.
If Duke’s defense plays as it has for the entirety of this season then they should be able to win this game. I don’t expect UNC to be able to shut down the Blue Devils but making this a track meet gives them a much better chance to win. Duke needs to be efficient, take care of the basketball and defend – the holy trinity of winning in Chapel Hill.
