Go Cards.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Louisville Cardinals (20-6, 13-2) vs. Florida State Seminoles (16-10, 7-8)
Game Time: Noon
Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.
Television: The CW
Announcers: Thom Brennaman (play-by-play) and Brian Oliver (analysis)
Officials: Clarence Armstrong, Tony Henderson, Matt Potter
Favorite: Louisville by 13.5
Series: Louisville leads, 36-18
About Florida State:
After an unprecedented run of success, it’s now been nearly four years since Florida State’s last appearance in the NCAA tournament. That streak appears destined to be extended to five once we reach the end of the 2024-25 campaign, which we now know will be the last for head coach Leonard Hamilton.
Hamilton lost nine players from last season’s 17-16 squad, but restocked with a roster that appeared on paper to be his strongest since 2020-21. The Seminoles, instead, have been the definition of a middle of the road squad. They have a respectable overall record (16-10), with only a couple of devastatingly bad losses (Virginia Tech, Boston College), but they also no real wins of any consequence outside of perhaps last week’s miraculous road triumph over Wake Forest.
As they were when the teams squared off in December, the Seminoles are led by the strong play of 6’7 guard Jamir Watkins. Just 20 points shy of hitting 1,000 for his FSU career, Watkins enters Saturday’s game against Louisville ranked fourth in the ACC in scoring with a career-high 17.9 points per game scoring average. He is looking to become the first Seminole to finish in the top five in the ACC in scoring since Toney Douglas led the team and the ACC with a 21.5 points per game scoring average in 2008-09. Watkins is looking to become the first Seminole since Xavier Rathan-Mayes during the 2014-15 season to finish in the top 10 of the ACC scoring race (14.9 ppg).
Few players in the ACC are more adept at getting to the free-throw line than Watkins. He’s attempted double figure free-throws a whopping 10 times this season. He took just four in the first meeting against the Cards, but still managed to score a team-high 25 points thanks in large part to a season-best 4-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc. Defensively, Watkins is foul prone. If Chucky Hepburn or Terrence Edwards can get him to commit a couple of cheapies early on, it would go a long way towards the Cardinals rolling to victory.
Junior forward Malique Ewin played extremely sparingly at Ole Miss last season but has been a force for FSU so far this year. He’s the team’s leading rebounder at 8.0 rpg and the only double figure scorer besides Watkins (14.2 ppg). He was a problem inside all game long in the first meeting with U of L, scoring 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field. The Cards have a chance to showcase the strides they’ve made with their interior defense with the way they handle Ewin.
This is not a terrific offensive team, but the Seminoles have looked more like one of Hamilton’s pre-Covid squads on the defensive end. They put a ton of pressure on the ball, they switch 1 through 5, defend the perimeter extremely well, and are blocking shots and forcing turnovers at an extremely high rate (11th and 56th best in the country, respectively). Sophomore big man Taylor Bol Bowen is averaging 1.6 blocks per contest, third best in the ACC.
Expect FSU to try and run Louisville off the three-point line and funnel the Cardinals’ ballhandlers towards their rim protectors. U of L knocked down 15-of-19 from deep in the first meeting, but that was at a time when the Cards were among the worst three-point shooting teams in the country. Expect the Seminoles to have a much different defensive game-plan this go-round.
Notable:
—Louisville’s win over FSU last February snapped a 7-game winning streak for the Seminoles in the series. Before that run, Florida State had only once won back-to-back games over the Cardinals, and that happened all the way back in 1978.
—Louisville had also lost four consecutive games to the Seminoles in Tallahassee before December’s 90-76 victory.
—Florida State has been measured as the nation’s second-tallest team in the nation by Ken Pomroy’s analytics. The Seminoles’ roster contains 12 players listed at 6’5 or taller, 10 at 6’7 or taller, five taller than 6’10, and one seven-footer.
—Louisville hasn’t lost at home since Dec. 8, and is riding a 7-game winning streak inside the KFC Yum Center.
—Reyne Smith is leading in the country in made three-pointers per game (3.85) and is second in total made three-pointers (100). He also ranks fourth in total three-point attempts (251).
—Chucky Hepburn is 16th in the country in assists per game (6.2) and 21st in total assists (155). He’s also 17th in total steals (59) and 14th steals per game (2.36).
—James Scott is fourth in the country and first in the ACC in dunks with 55.
—Louisville’s four-game winning streak is tied for the longest in men’s basketball among power conference teams.
—Louisville is tied with Duke for the most double-digit wins in conference play. Both teams have 12.
—Louisville’s average margin of victory in its ACC wins is 16.2 points.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville has led at halftime in 16 consecutive conference games.
—Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 163 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 81, Florida State 68
