I’m not sweating the eight-spot tumble in ESPN’s power rankings that we took today. For starters, I’m not positive that I disagree with it. There’s a reason why so many Virginia fans were excited to have Nichols, and his departure makes the question of where guaranteed offense is going to come from even bigger than it already was. You don’t lose a guy that good and have disinterested national media types just assume that everything will be fine.
So if things are more tenuous than before, why do I feel OK, you ask? I’m drunk on winding Marial Shayok drives, Mamadi Diakite blocks, and Kyle Guy threes, and London Perrantes hasn’t even broken a sweat yet. There are still a lot of things to be excited about, and some of them will move forward faster without Nichols. The truth of it is, I don’t really care about rankings. I like it when we’re ranked highly — everyone likes to be popular — but I don’t think about it much. If we continue to play well and impress, the rankings will fall where they should.
Eight Virginia players are averaging between five and 13 points per game (and that’s with Devon being dreadful), which is fun even though it doesn’t feel sustainable. Marial (who is taking 19.3 shots and scoring 26.2 points per 40 minutes) is the only player averaging double figures (12.7), but Darius (9.0, 61% shooting), London (8.7) and Guy (8, a .731 EFG%) are one good game away. We’ve been playing efficient offense (1.14 points per possession), disruptive defense (0.87), and have done pretty much everything well except shoot threes (30.4%). I’m ready for an uptick in competition.
Grambling State is not going to provide that uptick. Ken Pomeroy gives us a 99.7% chance of defeating them. Jon Pence’s Game Sim gave us 97 wins in 100 simulated meetings. The odds of the Tigers pulling the upset are better than someone becoming a movie star (one in 1,505,000) or dying from left-handedness (one in 4.4 million), but they’re still really long.
The Tigers have been kicked around for years. GSU has posted a record of 18–129 over the last five seasons and first three games of this one, and has logged double digit wins for a season in just one of the last nine. They’re routinely scheduled for early season drubbings: they traveled to Ohio State, Marquette, Memphis and Virginia Tech last season and Notre Dame, George Washington, Purdue, and TCU the year before, losing all eight by an average of 37 points.
This year’s edition already has a win (over 348th-ranked NC A&T), but is also a member of a dubious 300 club: 346th nationally in offensive rating (91.3) and 316th on D (109.3). They can’t shoot (40.3% on twos, 30.6% on threes, 67.6% from the line), turn the ball over in droves (23.4%), don’t get assists (37.7% of baskets) and don’t really take threes. So far, what passes for an offense has been held up by an offensive rebound mark north of 30% in all three games. Their defense has appeared very vulnerable inside (opponents grab 36.4% of offensive rebound chances and make 57.3% of their twos) and has been very foul-prone. They have utilized some half and three quarter court pressure to force turnovers (opponents have coughed it up on roughly a quarter of possessions), but we have no shortage of quality ball handlers at this point, so I’m not anticipating problems there.
Grambling State has no bigs (their tallest regular is 6'7'’) and has two double figure scorers in guard Ervin Mitchell (13.3 ppg but an 88.2 ORTG and 39.5 EFG%) and forward (? he’s 6'4'’) Remond Brown (11.7, 93.1, 45.3%). The efficiency numbers posted by both suggest maybe that either someone else should maybe do the shooting, or that they’re being smothered by defenses because no one else can.
Like St. Francis of Brooklyn, Grambling State is the kind of team whose mere presence on a schedule can impact the delicate surface of the Bubble when spring arrives. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that — I don’t think it will, and it won’t if we show out against the tougher part of December that’s coming up — and as for tonight, I just hope we make it out with everyone healthy and without looking bad ourselves.
Virginia
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
I’m not rushing London’s offense along. I’m sure he recognizes the importance of getting the other guys going and — and this is a big and — he’s always done this. He didn’t make a two pointer in a November game until the second game of his third year.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr #0
I think one of Devon and Darius needs to go to the bench in favor of Marial. It makes sense if you like breaking up guys that play similar roles.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
It’s good that Darius has scored in double digits twice, but it’s not as good that he has more turnovers (eight) than assists (seven) so far.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
I’ve been keeping a close eye at Isaiah’s work on the glass, as I think his ability to hold that down is key to our season. So far: 17.2% of offensive chances and 18.9% on D. Works for me.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Jack got called for two fouls against Yale that I recognized from my days as an oversized center in youth ball as fouls just called because he’s big.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
I’m curious when Guy’s green light starts. The locker room? The edge of the stands? U-Hall?
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
I don’t care that Marial is ending more than a third of his possessions in shots (35.8%). He’s taking — for the most part — very good ones.
F: Jarred Reuter — 6'7'’ so #31
Reuter got some good press over the summer, but I’m not sure that he’s actually gotten better.
GSU
G: Ervin Mitchell — 6'4'’ sr #0
Their leading scorer at 13.3 ppg, he’s hit for double figures in all three games. Has one assist and NINE turnovers, and has committed four fouls twice. He likes threes (2–9 so far), but there’s no evidence (31.7% last year) that they like him.
G: Chase Cormier — 6'0'’ sr #10
Cormier has been held scoreless in 54 minutes (0–4 shooting) over Grambling State’s last two games. It might be OK: he posted EFG%s under 30 in both of his first two years, making 26.2% of his shots overall and 19% of his threes.
G: Remond Brown — 6'4'’ sr #4
The biggest threat on GSU’s team. He went 0–9 in their season opening loss at ECU, and has rebounded for 17.5 ppg on 60% shooting in the two games since.
F: Deonte Hearns — 6'7'’ sr #3
Decent offensive rebounder (9.1%) who draws fouls (81.2 FT rate) against bigger guys inside.
F: Avery Ugba — 6'7'’ sr #11
Came up with 14 points, eight boards (seven offensive) and three blocks against Providence, which at least catches my eye.
G: Nigel Ribeiro — 6'o’’ so #2
As point-guardy (a 23.9% assist rate, no turnovers) as anyone the Tigers have. Didn’t play in their last game.
F: Diontae Jones — 6'6'’ jr #24
Has turned the ball over on a whopping 45.3% of possessions used so far this season.
G: Marcel Thompson — 6'3'’ fr #23
Hit five threes in 17 minutes at ECU and then was relegated to the bench, where he’s taken just three shots in the two games since.
Verdict:
We have a very good chance at holding a third straight opponent under 40 points for the first time in the Bennett era. If they happen to get 40, they won’t get to 50. This one shouldn’t be close.
