It hasn’t come easy for us in Blacksburg during the Bennett era. Despite winning five of six games in Cassell under CTB (oddly a better record vs VT than our 4-2 mark at home), we’ve won by double digits just once (74-58 in 2013) and have an average margin of just +3.7 since he took over despite having won 43 more games (148 to 105) over these six plus seasons and owning a more comfortable +8.3 margin at home.
We’ve needed Justin Anderson to hulk up late in each of our last two trips west: we trailed by 11 in the second half of the 2014 edition before Justin scored six in a 9-0 run that helped us pull ahead. Last season, we trailed by 10 in the second before pulling off a 12-0 run in the last five minutes (with Justin scoring eight) to win. Those Hokies teams haven’t been good at all — they’ve won 20 games total — but they’ve been rabid in their pursuit of a win. Without much hope of postseason play, knocking us off in our marquee sport becomes their Final Four, and their fans turn out and turn up in appropriate fashion. The metal trashcan that is Cassell transforms into a sauna full of reverberating hate, and we’ve had some issues with it.
I expect more of the same tonight. Buzz Williams has a little more talent to work with on his 2016 team. The Hokies are 9-5 and with their 73-68 OT win over NC State on Saturday, already own as many wins over Pomeroy’s top 100 (two) as they logged in all of 2015.
The Hokies’ defensive numbers look good inside (a 10.6% block rate as a team has led to foes making just 45% of their twos) and out (Tech opponents have hit just 31.8% of their threes) and they are surrendering just a point per possession for the season overall, with the caveat that they haven’t played many good teams yet and just barfed up 1.08 and 1.17 per possession in consecutive losses to St. Joe’s and West Virginia before the State game. The hole in their D has been the defensive glass, as they’ve grabbed just 68.2% of available caroms so far this season, and that was before pogo stick freshman Chris Clarke (19.2% DREB rate) was lost for the season with a broken foot. Second chances should be there for us.
On offense, they’re playing like guys who just dapped each other up for the first time at the Y on a Saturday morning, which is appropriate, given that their two leading scorers are both in their first seasons on the court, and how 10 different Hokies have started games and nine have started more than once.. There are a lot of decent-looking parts (Seth Allen can take a game over, Zach LeDay is a force inside, Justin Bibbs is a lights out shooter, Devin Wilson can get in the lane at will, Kerry Blackshear is a bulky interior presence), but the offense hasn’t shown much cohesiveness yet and has been marred by one on one play and turnovers (18.6% of possessions).
Allen talked about transferring to Tech to prove himself a star in the ACC, but instead has logged more turnovers than assists in half of Tech’s games and has only proven his detractors right so far. He’s Tech’s leading scorer (14.6 points per game) and is still the same potentially dynamic dribble-drive creator that scored in double figures in three of four meetings with us while at Maryland, but he’s been forcing things (39.2% overall, 27.4% from deep) so far. The 6’7” LeDay has been the better option for the Hokies. The South Florida transfer has operated from the elbow in, scoring 14.2 points per game, living at the line (86 FTA so far this season), and grabbing a whopping 15.8% of Tech’s misses while he’s on the court. As an undersized big, he’s like a poor man’s Anthony Gill, which should make for an interesting matchup with the real one. Bibbs — the leading returning scorer from last year’s team — is hitting 56% of his threes this season even after a 1-8 slump over their last three games. He has 33 threes this season, while the rest of the team has 38 and has made only 24.2%. Watching him try to come open after offensive boards will be crucial.
I think our biggest key tonight will be coming out and matching Tech’s aggression. We’ve shot under 40% from the floor and taken a disproportionately large number of threes (43 of our 100 shots) in our last two years in Blacksburg, with Tech appearing to be much more interested in actually being there (can you blame them?). We’re the much more talented team, and need to actually show up and play like it if we want to keep walking out of Cassell with wins. LeDay is good, but we should have a big edge on the interior with Gill and Tobey working the high/low with Isaiah. Tech will need Bibbs to show up and can threes, and for Allen to remember he’s not going it alone. I think Tobey is a candidate to be an X-factor in this one. Tech plays a traditional big in Kerry Blackshear, and he’ll be either bigger, more skilled, or a combination thereof than anyone Tech throws at him.
Verdict:
I think we’ll win, but I don’t think that it will come easy. After the last two years (and the two games before Notre Dame, for that matter), I’d love to see us come out and play well on both ends in the first half. Our offense has more places it can go, and our defense is best against teams like Tech without many perimeter options. We have more talent and absolutely have more depth, but I think that the combination of Tech being pumped and their gym being a dark, dank place to play basketball will keep the final margin within 10.
