If this game was being played on the road, I’d try to sell you on the continued dangers of ACC road games against depleted underdogs or try to get you nervous about the confluence of our Chipotle-loving basketball team with the Chestnut Hill location. Since it’s a home game, I’ve got nothing. Boston College isn’t dangerous. They’ve lost their first eight ACC games, have yet to come within single digits of a conference opponent, and just lost second-leading scorer Jerome Robinson (11.6 per game) for the next month with a broken wrist. They’re the closest thing to a breather left on the schedule.
I’m pretty high on this Virginia team right now. If January’s games felt like a journey across a desert island, then the Yum! Center provided an oasis with a combination KFC/Taco Bell/Pizza Hut and a fountain of fresh water. That game was the closest that the 2016 team has come to capturing the magic of the two that preceded it — you know, that uncanny combo of defensive intensity, know-how and iron will that made countless opponents veer off from their game plan and play into our hands. Louisville got nothing going. Damion Lee was driven left and held in check, Trey Lewis didn’t make a three, and Chinanu Onuaku was shut out on the glass. It was refreshing, like suddenly having a standard definition broadcast click into HD. I don’t know if this sudden renaissance will stick, but I also don’t know why it wouldn’t. Confidence is contagious.
BC is 15th in offensive efficiency (81.7) in league games. They don’t shoot well (41.8% on twos, 34.1% on threes), rebound their own misses (19.2% offensive rebound rate, dead last in the league), or get to the line (21.4 trips per 100 shots), and they turn it over on almost a quarter (23.2%) of their trips down the court. Grad transfer and ex-Florida Gator Eli Carter has been using an obscene number of possessions (32.7% of BC’s trips, he shoots on 34% of those and has 105 more shot attempts than the next Eagle), and with Robinson (the aforementioned next Eagle) out, he’ll be using even more for the foreseeable future. Carter scores 17.3 points per game by mixing darts into the lane with threes (he takes seven per game), and to his credit, leads BC in assists (4.2).
If you’re going to be last in the league on offense, the defense had better make up the difference. BC’s hasn’t. The Eagles are 14th in the league in defensive efficiency in ACC games (113.2), surrendering a horrific 56.7% shooting mark on twos and a slightly-less-horrific but still bad 38.1% rate on threes to conference foes. Dennis Clifford — in a race with Malcolm Brogdon to see who can stay at their school long enough to achieve tenure first — is not a rim protector at all. The Eagles foul a ton (39.4 FT/100 FGA) and don’t block shots (just 6.7%). Their lone saving graces are that they’re OK defensive rebounders (thanks to Clifford grabbing 23%) and are forcing turnovers at a high (20.2%) rate, though some of that came via Robinson’s now-shelved ball-hawking instincts.
The talent advantage alone should be enough to win this one by double digits. For the sake of my own mental health, I’d prefer that we come out aggressive and efficient in building an early lead instead of having one of those games where it’s 26-23 after the first half before things unfold as planned in the second.
Verdict:
BC’s going to surround Eli Carter with three point shooters and throw him into the teeth of our defense in the hope that he can either get into the lane for himself or set one of the freshmen on fire from out there. It’s not a bad strategy given our body of work, but BC doesn’t have the talent, experience, or depth to pull it off. The line is 24, and while I doubt we win by that much (CTB will definitely deploy the Greens early if we get up big), I think tonight should be comfortable.
