It feels like we’ve already felt an entire season’s worth of emotions this football season for Virginia, but we haven’t even reached the official halfway point of the schedule yet.
Buckle up: the second half will be rife with things to talk about. Think about it. There will either be rampant speculation about our next coach or a bittersweet and improbable bucking of the odds (seriously, if you believe CML is out before there’s an official press release, you’re a sucker), and there could be redshirts doffed and guys transferring out or decommitting. It might not be pretty, but it’s certain to be eventful. Somehow, some way, we’ll make it to basketball season no matter what happens. Hang on to that when Saturday afternoons at Scott get cold and lonely.
The Pitt game was a bummer. Really, every game but Notre Dame has been disappointing on some level, and even Notre Dame was disappointing if you peel back the “we played a good team close” wrapper to reveal the blown lead and a lost opportunity at a win waiting underneath. Nonstop disappointment is a fact of life when you’re an uninspired 1-4.
We’re 2-2 against Syracuse all-time, but 2-0 in my lifetime (wins at home and at Syracuse in 2004 and 2005). This is our first meeting against the Orange since they’ve been members of the ACC, which doesn’t usually mean good things (we’re 1-6 in our first meeting with new ACC members). This is Homecomings, which we’ve won only 51% of ever, which in turn makes me think that (surprise) we need better scheduling. Homecomings is for rejoicing in the beating of a hapless opponent.
About the Orange:
‘Cuse wasn’t supposed to be good even with an intact depth chart at quarterback, and losing Terrel Hunt certainly didn’t help matters. They’re 3-2, with home wins over Rhode Island, 3-3 Wake Forest, and 2-4 Central Michigan and a surprisingly feisty loss to LSU (in a surprisingly feisty performance) and a much less competitive loss to South Florida last week in what was their first road game of the season.
Despite struggling to pick up big chunks of yardage (79th in yards per play at 5.46, tied with us) and put together long drives (108th in total offense), ‘Cuse has managed to score 31 points per game. Part of that can be attributed to an easy schedule, but they put up 24 on LSU, which is tied for the most points surrendered by the Tigers this year.
The Orange spend a lot of time in the pistol and run a lot of read option plays out of it, focusing on the run (60.7% of their plays) to try to set up easier situations for true freshman quarterback Eric Dungey. Dungey’s stats (seven TDs/one INT, 60% complete, 9.4 ypa) look good, though they’re bolstered by missing the LSU game with an injury. He’s more of a pocket type — not nearly the runner (3.3 yards per carry) that Hunt (5.6 ypc in 2014) is — and that’s limited what Syracuse wants to do a little, as their current offense relies on the QB running from those pistol sets more than anyone else (Dungey leads the team in rushing attempts per game).
The rest of the running game is handled by a committee comprised of freshman Jordan Fredericks (236 yards, 5.2 per carry) and juniors George Morris (138 yards, 5.1 per carry) and Devante McFarlane (21 for 70). McFarlane was the starter entering the season, but Fredericks soon took the job, only for Morris (combined 13 carries for 81 yards) to put up decent efforts against Wake and LSU. Chances are, we’ll see all three of them in some respect.
6’2” Steve Ishmael is Dungey’s safety valve on the outside (14 catches, 15.6 yards per grab, two scores) and 5’9” Brisly Estime is the guy we should absolutely positively never fall asleep on (eight catches, 25.7 yards per, two scores). Running backs Ervin Phillips and Ben Lewis have combined for 17 catches, and fellow back Devontae Freeman doesn’t touch it much through the air (five catches) or on the ground (six rushes), but his 11 touches have totaled 91 yards and he’s scored three times. I’ll be keeping an eye out for him.
Their line is experienced and has been able to keep the heat (just eight sacks surrendered) off of their quarterbacks. The Orange convert 38% of their third downs.
‘Cuse lost eight starters from 2014′s 27th-ranked overall defense, which accounts for the plummet to their current home at 68th. They’ve hemorrhaged rushing yards (549 in all) over the last two weeks against LSU (understandable because well, Leonard Fournette) and South Florida (welp) and have struggled all season long against the pass (64.9% complete, 8.3 yards per attempt, 255.8 yards per game). The Orange are susceptible to the big play (they’ve allowed 12 plays of 30+ yards), which is promising, though it means that we’ll need to make some. Junior defensive ends Ron Thompson and Luke Arciniega have combined for nine of the Orange’s 13 sacks, and junior corner Corey Winfield has two picks, one of which he took to the house. Syracuse has forced 10 turnovers on the year.
Estime (21.4 yards per punt return, 22 per kickoff return) is scary good on special teams, but the scary thing for Syracuse is that their coverage units have allowed almost as much on both phases (21.7 per kickoff, 18.3 per punt) as Estime has gained. Their kicker (7-9 for the year after a 13-16 freshman year) and punter (45.2 yards per punt) are both pluses.
How to Beat Syracuse:
1.) Don’t turn the ball over. Syracuse’s defense is a mess. If we can execute on offense like we have for pockets of this season, takeaways might be the only way that Syracuse can consistently get stops, and it’ll help them score points — the Orange have two TD returns this year, after logging five in 2014. The onus here mostly falls on Matt Johns, whose stubbornness in trying to make a play instead of taking a sack (or throwing into coverage off of his back foot) has burned him repeatedly over the last few weeks (and is part of why he’s leading the ACC in interceptions). ‘Cuse is going to blitz — Scott Schafer is a believer in consistent pressure — so Johns needs to calm down, realize that there’s always another down, and make the smart, safe play.
2.) Protect Matt Johns. This ties into the last point. Johns is a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde quarterback, kind of like Andy Dalton has looked in the NFL entering this season: he’s poised, creative, and shows proper mechanics when given time, but lapses into wonky throws and hurried decisions when shown pressure. Our offensive line consists of a few depth chart guys, a cardboard standup of D’Brickashaw Ferguson that Coach Borbs found in an equipment closet, and whoever wins the open audition at Scott tonight, so the play calling is going to have to do its part to not set MJ up to fail.
3.) Stop the run. The last three quarters of the Pitt game were a good sign, as we didn’t even allow Pitt to consider running the football after the first quarter. The first step, as usual, is sealing the end, which is even more important against the read option. If we allow Dungey to get out and run beyond his abilities, it’ll set ‘Cuse up for success through play action, which is something they like to throw in once the running game gets going. The key to shutting down Syracuse’s O is limiting the run, then blanketing their limited receiving corps, and then hopefully using that to find some pressure.
4.) Keep Estime from beating us with one play. This should go without saying, but games between relatively evenly matched teams can be decided by one big play, and Estime has made his name out of making big plays. We can’t let the fast guy sneak behind the D or beat us via the return game. Estime’s faster than all of our corners, so safety help — which has been inconsistent this season — needs to be something we can count on.
5.) Start strong. We’ve let our last three opponents (William and Mary, Boise, and Pitt) get to 17 before we score for the second time. That means we’ve trailed by a combined 51-17 out of the gate in those games, opening up a hole that our limited team has to scrape and claw to get out of, and hasn’t been able to against FBS competition. ‘Cuse isn’t good, but they’re not bad enough to give a big head start to.
What to Watch For:
1.) Turnout. I’m curious. Will Homecomings outweigh the growing apathy surrounding the program, or will the returning faithful realize that there are a lot of really fun Autumn activities in central Virginia that don’t involve watching Mike London coach football? I think we break 40,000.
2.) The offensive line shuffle. My fingers are crossed for you, Jack McDonald. Good luck. We’ve got six OLs out for this game, once again indicting how few big guys we’ve even recruited in recent years. You need a surplus on the line more than in any other spot, and we seem to like using scholarships on prospecting for athletic pass rushing types without an actual position, mediocre wide receivers, or extra cornerbacks more than we do on linemen. One more strike on CML.
3.) Wither Canaan Severin? Severin and Smoke have more than half (51 of 97) of our receptions this year, but Canaan has 10 for 137 yards in the three games after catching 11 for 153 against Notre Dame. Increased coverage plays a role, but it also feels like our staff just forgets that he’s out there sometimes and that Matt Johns has been trying to emphasize T.J. Thorpe in order to regain whatever rhythm was lost during Thorpe’s time off with the injury. Guys: don’t forget Canaan.
4.) The snap count at running back. This has been all over the place lately (Daniel Hamm ran the ball 10 times against Pitt), but I’m going to keep using this platform to bang the drum for more of Jordan Ellis, especially given that no one else has really impressed as a between the tackles bruiser.
Verdict:
It’s been lost at times admid the detritus of what will probably be another lost season, but the ingredients are here for a good offense. I think we see it return to form against a Syracuse team ill-equipped to stop much of anyone, and score enough to overcome some leaks of our own and register our first FBS win of the season. I predicted an upset win over Boise too, but I think this will go much better than that game did. Virginia 31, Syracuse 21
