The first meeting with UNC wasn’t the most painful of our recent losses — not even close, really , because it was clear we weren’t going to win before the bus even crossed the state line — but it may have been the weakest performance.
We got smacked. I’ll allow us the concession that UNC has looked like Arnold Schwarzenegger taking Colombia since their loss to Duke and probably would have beaten us in the Smith Center on a good day, but our flaccid showing on offense (27.7% from the floor, 2–20 on 3s, 0.67 points per possession) didn’t even allow us to give the Heels a decent game. Once UNC finished a 16–4 run to go up 22–12, the loss was fait accompli.
UNC scored 34 points in the paint, getting 43 of their 65 points from their starting frontcourt trio of Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, and Kennedy Meeks. Jackson remains a major concern, because he’s straight out of central casting for the role of “NBA-caliber wing to effortlessly drop threes over Virginia defenders.” Jackson hit four threes and scored as many points (18) as Virginia did over the first 19:06 of the first meeting, and has only gotten hotter (5–11 and 4–9 from deep in UNC’s last two games) since then.
I’ve managed to drum up some optimism and some pessimism for the rematch.
Reasons for hope:
Number one: our guys saw some shots drop (11–16 on 3s, 1.13 points per possession) in Raleigh over the weekend. Despite some residual warts (38% on twos and 13–22 from the line) and the caveat that NC State is serving as the Washington Generals of the ACC, things looked better.
Number two: This is a flimsy thing to be confident in — we’ve played well on the road for all of Tony Bennett’s tenure and the home crowd has yet to have their breakout game of 2017 — but I’m assuming that there will be a lift from bringing our newfound mojo home to JPJ, where we’ve traditionally been very comfortable (recent results be damned). The alternate to this could be that UNC fans (who are everywhere, the ‘Heels are the Dallas Cowboys of basketball on the east coast) have bought rows of available tickets in the 300s and this will feel like a neutral court game.
Reasons to dial that hope back:
Number one: the ‘Heels have played twice since the last meeting, casually flicking aside Louisville and Pittsburgh and only looking more imposing in the process. Jackson hit nine more 3s in those two games.
Number two: UNC’s big triptych of Meeks, Hicks, and Tony Bradley are best matched with size. Isaiah Wilkins won’t be at 100% and while I don’t know anything about the specifics of Jack Salt’s back injury, I feel like backs are usually only completely healed by rest, which is not something we’re likely to get much of as we roll into the meat grinder of tournament season. The best case is obviously that the walking wounded gut it out and offer an approximation of their best, but if they can’t, CTB and co. have to decide if they want to go with four guards and ask Devon to spend 35 minutes boxing out the 260-lb Meeks, or hope that Mamadi Diakite (I’m down) and Jarred Reuter (considerably less so) can hold their own.
I’ll hold to a lot of what I said in the first UNC preview: part of defending North Carolina effectively is making shots, and we’ve failed to do so in consecutive losses to the ‘Heels, making a combined 10 of 44 3s and giving Carolina an advantage with the resulting long rebounds. Improved perimeter D has been a major factor in their recent run; they gave up a combined 20 threes to Miami and Duke in their recent losses and 25 more in closer-than-expected wins over Pitt and BC, but have surrendered only 22 total (and 25% shooting) during their current four game winning streak.
The ‘Heels can be beaten (particularly by teams with strong three-point shooting), but their length on defense on the wing in Jackson and Theo Pinson means that they contest more shots than a team that starts 6’3'’ and 6'5'’ guys on the wing. Opponents need to work harder for clean looks.
The story is the same as it usually is against North Carolina: keep the ‘Heels in the half court and rebound the defensive glass. If you pull that off, you’ve given yourself a chance. From there, it’s up to our mercurial shooters to hopefully take advantage.
Virginia Eights:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
London played a controlled, mature game in Raleigh. 16 points, 10 assists, and not having to force anything is the perfect game for him, especially since he was the third option on offense for much of the afternoon (a good role for him, one might think). Hopefully seeing shots fall (especially that wicked step-back that pushed our lead back into double digits) gives him his spark back.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
Hall has hit five of his last seven threes and scored 33 points over the last two games. It’s clear who the early favorite for 2018 clubhouse leader is going to be.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial’s last real good game was Villanova. As someone who is best suited creating off the dribble in the midrange, it’s as though the run of zones he faced when we faced Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, and Tech were like an astronaut spending time in zero-G, and he hasn’t gotten his Earth gravity legs back. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Darius in this spot if DT has gotten over whatever virus kept him out against NCSU.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
My wife tells kids with strep throat that they can go back to school and resume normal activities after 24 hours of antibiotics assuming they’re feeling OK, so I’m going to apply this to Isaiah and assume that everything is fine.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Nothing came out about Jack’s back injury before Raleigh. It puts him — and the team — in a tough place, because I feel like back injuries either need rest and immobilization (and we need Jack’s 15–20 minutes), or near-constant movement and stimulation to keep from tightening up (but we‘re not going to play him for 35).
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
I have the same mindset about Kyle’s game that Kyle has: I still expect every shot he takes to in, and want him to take the next one. He played a very good defensive game against NCSU, closing out sharply, moving his feet well, and not forgetting about opponents in the corner.
G: Ty Jerome — 6'5'’ fr #11
Jerome joined Guy in having the best defensive game of his career in Raleigh. I don’t care that he fouled out; two of his five were completely bogus.
F: Mamadi Diakite — 6'9'’ fr #25
I sense that Jack Salt’s back injury could become an opportunity to get 28ish minutes of Mamadi per game, and while I like Jack Salt and appreciate a good thumping (there’s a reason I remember NC State’s Richard Howell years later), I am geeked out to see the things Mamadi can do in the flow of a game if he gets enough run. There’s no hypothetical box score good (or bad, I’ll admit) enough to illustrate the possibilities.
UNC Eights:
G: Joel Berry II — 6'0'’ jr #2
Berry took the first Virginia game off (five points, three turnovers) and it didn’t matter. It’s a bad sign when opposing high-usage guys can disappear and you still lose by 25.
G: Theo Pinson — 6'6'’ jr #1
Pinson plays a similar role for UNC to the one Devon plays for us; he’s an ace defensive rebounder (18.3%), has a high assist rate (26.1%), and checks the best opposing wing. He’s not the shooter or handler Devon is (and Carolina doesn’t need him to assume as much of the burden), but he’s bigger and stronger.
F: Justin Jackson — 6'8'’ jr #44
The biggest improvement I’ve seen with Jackson is his ability to get somewhere off of two bounces and find a good shot. He’s not strictly a spot-up or transition guy anymore, and that’s turned him into a legitimately scary lead player.
F: Isaiah Hicks — 6'9'’ sr #4
Hicks has 21 rebounds over UNC’s last three games. After going three games and 46 minutes without an assist, he had six (?!) against Pitt, which beats his total of five for the entire month of December.
F: Kennedy Meeks — 6'10'’ sr #3
Meeks over the last four games: 15.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per, seven assists and five blocks. Get well soon, Jack.
C: Tony Bradley — 6'11'’ fr #5
The thing to watch with Bradley (who backs up Meeks and Hicks) at this stage in his development is his 20.1% offensive rebound rate.
F: Luke Maye — 6'8'’ so #32
Maye has 12 offensive boards over UNC’s last three games.
G: Nate Britt — 6'1'’ sr #0
Britt is UNC’s third guard and a pesky defender. He’s in a little bit of a slump — he’s missed nine straight threes — though like Darius on our side, it’s hard to judge when he takes maybe one per game.
Verdict:
Alongside ACC and NCAA Tournament seedings, there are also a couple of less important things on the line tonight. First, we haven’t been swept in a season series since the 2012 season, which isn’t even what I consider the modern era of Virginia basketball. Second, there’s this, which I’m taking and running with: tonight is a battle for a share of number one.
League wins in the ACC the past three years:
— Irish Illustrated (@PeteSampson_) February 27, 2017
1. North Carolina 38
2. Virginia 37
3. Notre Dame, Duke 36
I hope that we’re not afraid to get blown out tonight. It felt like we were trying to avoid that in the first meeting, working the ball around longer and playing pretty conservatively even by our usual standards. I know that the conventional wisdom on UNC is that popping quick shots is recipe for disaster if you’re not prepared to go toe-to-toe with them in transition, but not taking good looks whenever they appear — especially as an underdog that is clearly punching up — only hurts your chances. I’m not advocating that we suddenly run a Hoibergian pace-and-space offense, just that it’s clear that our offense runs best when we’re not afraid to take good shots. Hopefully the trip to Raleigh served as a refresher of that idea.
As Shea Serrano says, shoot your shot. I’m not calling a win. I just want to be encouraged.
