I haven’t seen BC yet this season. In fact, I don’t even remember seeing the Eagles last year, and I was at JPJ for the game. That’s been how things have gone for BC, who hasn’t finished a season over .500 since 2011 or been must-see viewing for ACC fans in longer than that.
The first things that come to mind when I think of BC basketball are:
- Olivier Hanlon dropping 41 in the 2013 ACC Tournament.
- Craig “Rhino” Smith and Jared Dudley’s braids.
- Most of last year’s team caught the shit fever from bad Chipotle.
There’s a little less pressure on us going into this game than there was before BC last year, even with this one being played in BC’s mausoleum-like home arena instead of at JPJ, because BC was 0–8 coming in and you just don’t ever want to be the team that breaks an ignominious streak. There’s still some, though, as this game and Saturday’s with 11–6 Georgia Tech offer chances to fatten up on the lower half of the ACC before back to back roadies with Notre Dame and Villanova signal the beginning of a home stretch full of tests. This game and Saturday’s meeting with the Yellow Jackets mark our last games this season against teams ranked lower than 100th by Pomeroy.
BC has performed a full reboot in each of the last two offseasons, first replacing the Hanlon/Patrick Heckmann group in the 2015 offseason and then needing to scramble to replace a handful of transfers from last year’s 7–25 disaster. The results turned out pretty well this time: Jim Christian has folded graduate transfers from BYU, Western Michigan, and Delaware in among a couple of talented holdovers, and the Eagles already have more total wins (nine) and ACC wins (two) than they finished 2016 with.
Christian has taken advantage of having slightly more depth and talent by dialing up more pressure on defense and trying to push the tempo, in an attempt to mitigate their talent deficiencies with easy looks. It’s working… sort of. Both BC and their opponents are benefiting.
BC is sixth in the ACC in adjusted tempo (72.5 possessions per game), and are running into a lot of easy looks in the lane (an ACC-best 53.1% on twos in conference games) and the most assisted baskets (57.1% of their ACC buckets are assisted) in the league. Jerome Robinson has stepped up from his promising (11.7 ppg) freshman season to key everything they do, taking almost as many shots (285) as the next two Eagles put together, scoring 20.2 points per game and shooting 38.6% on threes.
One problem with speeding things up is that it can get sloppy: Robinson is a sophomore and backcourt-mate Ky Bowman is a freshman, and the two have combined for 102 assists and 110 turnovers, accounting for a big chunk of the team’s 21% turnover rate in ACC play.
Defensively, BC’s stepped up their ball pressure, but hasn’t been able to come away with the ball. They’re forcing turnovers on just 16.8% of possessions, which means that if you’re able to move the ball (which we sort of are?—?we’re assisting on more than half of our baskets for the season, but the fewest in the ACC in conference play), you get easy looks, especially since BC is small, routinely going with four guards 6'6'’ and under and eschewing rim protection (they block an ACC-low 4% of opposing shots). The end result? Opponents are shooting 52.5% on twos in ACC play, benefiting from lots of fouls (42.3 FT for every FGA) and largely beating a BC defense that can be hailed for its efforts but not really for its results (1.09 points per possession).
These struggles are to be expected?—?you don’t rebuild from 7–25 overnight —and none of it takes away from BC making progress, but the Eagles’ many weaknesses (lots of turnovers, poor interior defense, limited offensive rebounding?—?26.1%?—?and iffy mid-thirties three-point shooting) feed into our strengths, or at least don’t hit us where other teams have. BC will need a superlative effort from Robinson and a Robin-esque performance from Bowman (on top of us laying a total egg) to pull the upset.
Virginia:
G: London Perrantes?—?6'2'’ sr #32
London is taking 22.6 free throws for every 100 shot attempts, which would be the lowest FT rate of his career, including the freshman season he largely spent taking spot-up jumpers. I don’t get it?—?he’s shown more of a willingness to go to the rim at times this season, and it looks like he’s getting beaten up. Recent games are a step in the right direction (11 FTA/24 FGA), just like in a lot of other ways.
G: Devon Hall?—?6'5'’ jr. #0.
Devon is 0.4% away from passing Jarred Reuter for the highest defensive rebound percentage on the team, or maybe one more seven board outing.
F: Marial Shayok?—?6'6'’ jr #4
Marial had never scored in double figures in more than back to back games before this four game run he’s on right now.
F: Isaiah Wilkins?—?6'7'’ jr #21
Wilkins is 79th in the country in block percentage (7.3) and 109th in steal rate (3.5%).
F: Jack Salt?—?6'11'’ so #33
Jack has committed 11 fouls in his last 40 minutes of basketball, which is one fewer than he has points and rebounds combined.
G: Darius Thompson?—?6'4'’ jr #51
Darius’s last three: 8.3 ppg, 2 apg, 4–8 3PT. Third (or fourth) guard is a perfect spot for him.
G: Kyle Guy?—?6'3'’ fr #5
I knew that Kyle’s jumper was going to come back, but it didn’t make seeing it happen any less exciting.
F: Mamadi Diakite?—?6'9'’ fr #25
I think Mamadi is reading more than reacting at times on the floor, and the only way for this to improve and to maximize what we get from having this limitless talent on the roster is to play him more.
BC:
G: Ky Bowman?—?6'1'’ fr #0
Has a game of 30 and two games of 19 in BC’s last five, but also has six assists to 13 turnovers in their last three. Mixed bags abound with small freshman guards.
G: Jerome Robinson?—?6'5'’ so #1
CTB said it best: Robinson is complete. He scores (his nine in BC’s blowout loss to Syracuse was the first game in their last nine that he didn’t hit 20), sets up teammates (five assists in each of their last two games), and does it from everywhere (49.2% on twos, 38.6% on threes).
F: A.J. Turner?—?6'7'’ so #11
Low-key worried about Turner, who is a crafty secondary playmaker with the best assist to turnover ratio on the team and has hit 43.7% of his 71 three-point tries.
F: Connor Tava?—?6'6'’ sr #2
A screen setter, grunt work-doer, and junk basket-getter. Goes hard on the glass (16.8% DREB), but can’t help being undersized.
F: Mo Jeffers?—?6'9'’ sr #15
Delaware transfer is grabbing 11.6% of offensive boards and more than 20% on the defensive end, which is the thing that has come most easily after moving into the ACC. Foul (5.4/40) and turnover (24.2% of possessions) prone.
C: Nik Popovic?—?6'11'’ fr #21
Has scored 24 points and grabbed nine offensive boards in BC’s two games with Syracuse this month. Big man has some pop: he’s 3–11 on threes.
G: Jordan Chatman?—?6'5'’ sr #25
66 of his 100 shot attempts have been threes, and he’s shooting 38%. Doesn’t offer much else.
G: Garland Owens?—?6'5'’ sr #5
The things Owens has seen as a senior that has played out his career on this team. Owens has fallen out of the rotation of late, but is still the third man off of BC’s limited bench.
Verdict:
BC’s not good, but they’re also better than they have been. Couple that with the weird airlessness of the Conte Forum that seems to serve the same purpose as a roaring crowd, and this could be closer than it should be.
The key for us will be keeping BC grounded in the half court where everything is contested. If we move the ball well, there should be enough easy baskets on the other end to come away with the win.
