Our first meeting with Louisville was a treatise on the Pack Line defense. The Cardinals produced 47 points, shot 31.6% on two point tries, and got just 11 points on 3-12 shooting from their three double figure scorers, with Malcolm Brogdon holding Damion Lee to just six, 10 below his average. We’d allowed opposing offenses to score more than a point per possession in eight straight games leading up to that meeting, so giving up 0.77 in a 63-47 throttling of the Cardinals served as a reminder that this group was capable of more than the merely adequate defense we’d reluctantly accepted. Darius Thompson’s miracle heave in Winston-Salem gave us a new lease on life, but turning in a dominant defensive effort on the road restored our confidence. We’ve appeared rejuvenated on defense ever since, with six of nine opponents falling under the point per possession mark.
Tomorrow night will be emotional. Malcolm Brogdon has been a part of the program for five of Tony Bennett’s seven years, and more than anyone — more than Joe Harris, more than Justin Anderson, more than Jontel Evans — he exemplifies Tony Bennett’s Five Pillars and personifies the program’s ascent to prominence. Anthony Gill, Mike Tobey, and Evan Nolte have all been key cogs and contributed mightily to back-to-back ACC regular season titles, an ACC Tournament championship, and what will end up as three NCAA Tournament appearances (the last graduating class to make three NCAA appearances left Grounds in 1997). Caid Kirven (adored by his Krew) has scored eight career points, lived on the Lawn, and has had a pretty cool ride for a walk-on. There are a lot of memories tied to all five of these guys, and I expect the sendoff to be long, loud, and adoring. VirginiaSportsTV is going to make it pretty dusty in JPJ tomorrow night.
Tomorrow night has some ACC Tournament implications for us. We’re locked in to one of the top four spots and the double bye, so the important work is done. To be the top seed, we need to win and for Miami and North Carolina to lose, which gives us the unpleasant task of rooting for Duke and Virginia Tech. A win and losses by only one of Miami and UNC gets us the two seed. If we win and UNC and Miami both win or if we lose and UNC wins, then we’re stuck at three. If we lose and Duke beats UNC, we’re the fourth seed. In short: winning is better than losing, so we should do that. The rest will take care of itself. Read Patrick Stevens’s fascinating breakdown of every possible scenario and go Carrie Mathison crazy.
Louisville has gone 6-3 since our first meeting, and 5-3 since their athletic department imposed a postseason ban. They’ve got impressive wins over UNC and Duke, and road losses to UNC, Duke, and Miami. Six of Louisville’s seven losses this season have come on the road, and they’re just 4-6 away from the Yum! Center overall.
Everything Louisville does on both ends of the court depends on how well they execute Rick Pitino’s press. His inexperienced group (four guys in their first year in the program, three sophomores) struggled early in ACC play but has picked things up over the last few weeks: their steal rate in conference games is up to 9.7% (third in the ACC), and they’re forcing turnovers on more than one in every five possessions (20.1%). Chinanu Onuaku blocks almost 10% of opponents’ shots he faces, and the Cards take care of 13.3% as a team. Their guards are really athletic and close out well on threes, as ACC foes are hitting just 32.9% from deep.
When they’re not getting out in transition, this Louisville group has had a hard time finding consistent, efficient offense. Leading scorer and grad transfer Damion Lee missed a game with a bruised knee and has scored just 13.6 points and made only 28.3% of his threes in the seven games since. Trey Lewis has scored in double digits in one of Louisville’s last four games and has made only eight of 32 three point tries since the first of February. The team as a whole struggles with turnovers (18% in league play), three point shooting (33.7%, 11th in the ACC), and getting to the free throw line (a second-worst 29.1/100 FG attempts). Onuaku keeps them afloat with offensive rebounds (they’re grabbing 34.3% of their misses as a team), but their offense as a whole is only the 11th-most efficient (1.05 points per possession) in the league thanks to a lack of a truly reliable shot creator in the half court.
The first game saw us do everything that we need to do to beat Louisville. We were patient (there were just 61 possessions) and careful with the basketball (15 turnovers feels like a lot, but three of them came in the last two minutes when Louisville pressed the Green Machine), and that patience and precision on offense allowed us to pick Louisville’s trap apart for great looks in the half court (65% on twos, 5-13 on threes) and allowed the defense to get back and get set, as Louisville scored just four points in transition. The Cardinals beat us up on the glass (75% DReb percentage and 37.5% OReb), but managed only nine second chance points. I don’t expect Chinanu Onuaku to be held without a rebound again, but as long as we contest the second chances, we should be OK. In short: to win, play patient, intelligent offense, and make Louisville try to do the same against our half court defense.
Verdict:
We haven’t lost at home this season, and if you think I’m about to predict a loss on Senior Night to a team we dismantled the first time, you’re kidding yourself. More empirically, I think Louisville has real issues producing points without fast breaks, and that we’re playing offense (just 16 total turnovers against UNC and Clemson) at a very efficient clip. I think we send off Malcolm, AG, Tobey, Nolte, and the whole Kirven Krew with a win and finish the ACC slate winning 10 of 12. Bring on the postseason.
